Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

NOT SATIRE: Belief in Hell Boosts Growth: Fed Report

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Economy Donate to DU
 
ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-27-04 10:14 PM
Original message
NOT SATIRE: Belief in Hell Boosts Growth: Fed Report
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Economists searching for reasons why some nations are richer than others have found that those with a wide belief in hell are less corrupt and more prosperous, according to a report by the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Bank of St. Louis.

-cut-
Researchers at the regional Federal Reserve bank acknowledged the importance of productivity and investment in the economic process but looked at some recent unconventional efforts to explain differences in national prosperity.

-cut-
"In countries where large percentages of the population believe in hell, there seems to be less corruption and a higher standard of living," the St. Louis Fed said in its July quarterly review.

story

HA! Like Dick Cheney has a chance in Hell of getting into Heaven.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-27-04 11:05 PM
Response to Original message
1. Ozy, did you read the report? What a crock - I didn't get that exact
Edited on Tue Jul-27-04 11:23 PM by 54anickel
conclusion from reading it. Check it out, the Fed had to make changes to it and put in different charts after first posting it to their site as well, according to the editors note anyway.

What a bunch of maroons!

http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2004/c/pages/fear_of_hell.html

snip>

In a paper last year, economists Robert Barro and Rachel McCleary provided evidence that church attendance and economic growth are negatively related, but a belief in hell—their measure of religious beliefs—was positively related to increased economic growth. According to Barro and McCleary, increased church attendance could lower growth because of more resources flowing to the religious sector. However, the net effect would be uncertain because increased church attendance may also increase religious beliefs, which, as Weber believed, raises economic growth by spurring individual behavior and actions that are thought to encourage productivity. Interestingly, Barro and McCleary also found that economic performance was largely unrelated to the dominant religious theology of the nation.

snip>

There might, therefore, be two parts to the link between religion and economic growth: a belief in hell tends to mean less corruption, and less corruption tends to mean a higher per capita income. The first part of the link is illustrated by the first chart below. It uses the 1990-1993 World Values Survey, which asked people in 35 countries whether they believed in hell, and the Corruption Perceptions Index produced by Transparency International, which surveyed many countries’ residents about corruption.9 The first chart plots the rankings of 35 countries’ percentages of people who believe in hell against the rankings of the countries’ perceived levels of corruption. As the chart shows, there is a tendency for countries in which a larger percentage of the population believes in hell to have lower levels of corruption.

The second part of the link is illustrated by the second chart, which plots the GDP-per-capita rankings of the 35 countries against their corruption rankings.10 It shows a strong tendency for countries with relatively low levels of corruption to have relatively high levels of per capita GDP.

Combining the stories from the two charts suggests that, all else constant, the more religious a country, the less corruption it will have, and the higher its per capita income will be. Of course, these charts are only suggestive. However, they are nonetheless consistent with Weber’s argument and the Barro and McCleary result that religious beliefs can influence economic outcomes.

end snip>

Now, after reading that last paragraph, go back and read the first snippet again. :wtf: Where the hell did they get hell from?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
norwalk Donating Member (4 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-28-04 01:26 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Hell...God
if you dont beleive in one, you dont believe in the other.

Hell cannot be seperate of the other. Hell by its deffenittion is God
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Nadienne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-28-04 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. The definition of Hell
depends on what religion you belong to.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-28-04 09:47 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Why should this be any different than everything else they've done?
The Fed manufactures the evidence to support the premise. Bullshit? Nay! This kind of research gives proper bullshit a bad name.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jwcomer Donating Member (177 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-28-04 04:10 PM
Response to Original message
4. what a load of cr*p!
From their own data:

BIH% - % who believe in hell
BIHR - sample rank of % who believe in hell (I reversed their ranking so that highest BIH% is 1; this is more consitent with the other rankings.)
PCI - per capita income
PCIR - sample rank of per captia income
CR - sample rank of corruption

Correlation Matrix:

BIH% BIHR PCI PCIR CR
BIH% 1.00 -0.95 -0.22 0.20 -0.38
BIHR -0.95 1.00 0.16 -0.15 0.34
PCI -0.22 0.16 1.00 -0.98 0.87
PCIR 0.20 -0.15 -0.98 1.00 -0.85
CR -0.38 0.34 0.87 -0.85 1.00

1) Note that the most relevant correlation is BIH% vs. PCI is weakly negative. That's right; the most relevant statistic shows the exact opposite effect of what the study is claiming!! In this case they just don't mention the correlation in the study.

2) The second most important correlation is between CR and BIHR. The study points out that this is 0.34 (there is a sign change due to my switching ranking methodology for consistency.) The weak positive correlation here indicates that the more corrupt countries are more likely to believe in hell. So again this is the exact opposite of what the study claims. In this case they have obfuscated the result by reversing the ranking from the natural context.

So what we have here is a study which claims that belief in hell is good for the economy but the study’s data says the exact opposite. In fact belief in hell appears to make the economy slightly smaller and more corrupt. All I can say it that the authors of this study are morally bankruptcy and it is disgusting for the local Fed to endorse them.

Also does anyone else note the irony of this study? Hint, we can probably assume that the authors believe in hell; and here they are acting corruptly and wasting tax payer resources. Hmm, so maybe there is something to those weak correlations after all.

While I'm being slanderous, I should point out that I may be giving them too much credit by assuming that they are corrupt - they may just be incompetent.

-Walton
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Trillo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-02-04 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Whether they're corrupt or incompetent, it does seem
there's a bit of Hell at the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
enki23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-29-04 02:57 PM
Response to Original message
6. how the fuck did they control for *that* one?
amazing. shameless.

any asshole associated with this crap should be made a laughingstock for the rest of their very, very short careers.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jwcomer Donating Member (177 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-30-04 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
7. They've updated the Fed report.
Well it seems their quality control processes finally caught up with them and the authors have retraced their claims.

Well... No, not exactly retracted, but they have rewritten the article and dropped all correlations, data, and charts.

My isn't that embarrassing. Not that they admit any fallaciousness on their part.

-Walton
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Thu May 02nd 2024, 01:25 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Economy Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC