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Heritage Foundation's Beach launched bogus attacks on AARP's Social Security poll
Echoing the Republican National Committee, which denounced a recent American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) poll (subscription-only link) showing that the "appeal of Social Security private accounts drops when consequences are known," FOX News host Bill O'Reilly and his guest, Heritage Foundation senior fellow William W. Beach, cast the AARP as a dishonest "left-wing organization" and attacked the poll. But Beach's complaints about the poll -- that its questions gave respondents false information and that the questions were poorly structured -- were misleading and baseless.
O'Reilly began the "Follow-Up" segment of the January 27 edition of FOX News' The O'Reilly Factor by suggesting that any left-leaning advocacy organization is necessarily dishonest, asking, "Is the AARP an honest organization or bent on a left-wing agenda?" Then he introduced Beach, who harshly criticized the AARP poll, though it was unclear why Beach was qualified to assess the poll's reliability since he is an economist by training, not a pollster. Indeed, his chief credential seemed to be that he is a staunch advocate of President Bush's proposal to create private investment accounts in Social Security.<snip>
<snip>Beach's main argument against the poll was that its follow-up questions, which asked respondents who initially favored private accounts if they would still favor such a plan if they knew of certain other elements of the plan, allegedly misinformed voters about what such a proposal entails. He complained that one of these so-called "consequence" statements, which asked if respondents would favor private accounts "f it meant creating a new government agency to administer the program," was "completely off the wall." He insisted, "No one has suggested a new government agency." But Bush's own Social Security commission, formed in 2001 to explore ways of reforming the system, proposed a private accounts plan in which "account contributions would be managed by a central authority" (emphasis added) charged with deciding on the limited slate of investments from which personal account holders could choose and keeping track of money in the accounts (p. 178).
Similarly, the poll's other consequence statements are all accurate descriptions of what Bush is expected to propose. The 43 percent minority that initially favored private accounts shrunk substantially when the poll asked respondents whether they would still support the plan under the following circumstances:
If you would not be permitted to withdraw any of the money you invested until you retire;
If it meant you would receive a lower guaranteed Social Security benefit when you retire;
If the ups and downs of the stock market meant you might receive less money throughout your retirement than if you had kept all your money in Social Security;
If it meant each worker would have to pay the management fees associated with these accounts; and
If diversion of some Social Security payroll taxes into private accounts meant that it would cost an extra 1 trillion dollars out of other tax money to help pay the Social Security benefits of current retirees.
As for the first statement, Bush's own Social Security commission advised that "Pre-retirement access to funds in personal accounts should not be allowed" (p. 55). As for the second, the commission's "Model 2," which is widely expected to form the basis for Bush's proposal, also includes a cut in guaranteed benefits for all beneficiaries and an additional cut for those who choose personal accounts, as Media Matters for America has noted. As for the third, the vulnerability of personal accounts on "the ups and downs of the stock market" is, of course, inherent in the concept. As for the fourth, the commission report makes clear that "administrative fees" would be part of any private accounts plan (p. 44). Finally, the commission report estimates the transition costs associated with "Model 2" at $0.9 trillion (p. 92).
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