new SC poll – Edwards back on top; Sharpton 2nd; Dean 3rd

[pruner]

Edwards 17
Sharpton 12
Dean 11
Clark 10
Lieberman 9
Gephardt 8
Modeley-Braun 6
Kerry 5
Kucinich 1
Undecided 22

Nov 20-23. n=400. MOE±4

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20031126/APN/311260982

[pistoff democrat]

1. This is all very interesting, but

we have got to remember the aim is capturing the WH in 2004.

Edwards might make a good VP; Sharpton would scare the sh*t out of the majority of US voters...as the primaries actually start, hopefully people will remember what the real deal is: getting Bush the h*ll out of office!

[DemDogs]

22. Edwards will make a great President

If your aim is capturing the White House, you need to be behind Edwards. Other candidates cede Bush "his turf" and fight over the rest of the country. Edwards cedes Bush nothing. He is the one candidate who beats Bush on every score -- issues, background, likeability, connection with voters, personal charm, family.

The real deal is getting Bush out, which is why the real answer is John Edwards.

[SeveneightyWhoa]

2. Damn, Clark 4th?

I thought he was a sure bet to win SC?

[a_lil_wall_fly]

18. Clark should do well on the western part of the

Southern states.... AR, TX, LA, MS.

The Altantic states minus FL+GA will be Edwards country.

AL, TN, KY, FL and GA will be up for grabs.

[sandnsea]

3. Good for Edwards

Sure and steady, he could be our guy!

[pruner]

4. it should be noted that…

unlike the last SC poll which had Clark on top, 49% of those polled this time are black, which reflects the anticipated voter turnout for the primary.

[ebw]

5. Re: it should be noted that…"

25,000 South Carolinians Census-Declared as Indians or Indian descent. We've asked they not vote for Dean. You all know why.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[sandnsea]

8. Well, we do know

Why pretend we don't?

[pruner]

9. all I know for sure is that Kerry's grass roots are the REAL DEAL

[dfong63]

7. and who is "we"?

[ebw]

10. Re: it should be noted that…

Sorry. I should have guessed that some readers would ignore the April Rushlow on Howard Dean thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=108&topic_id=90091&mesg_id=92224&page=

[Skwmom]

11. Don't worry, Dean will

issue a policy statement which declares undying devotion to Indian causes and concerns. In return, Indians should say "outstanding" and pledge their full support to Dean in the primaries. (sarcasm off).

[ebw]

12. Re: Don't worry, Dean will

Yeah, but don't we have to say "outstanding" in pig latin or something suitably authentic? I know there's a catch, I just can't seem to find the .22

[Tinoire]

32. Is the NCAI going to withdraw its endorsement? n/t

[DemDogs]

13. Edwards will win South Carolina

This is a state where Dean and Clark are running TV (Edwards, too) and where Dean is running on black radio. What shows is that Edwards is strong in SC and that is unlikely to change since the people most likely to challenge his victory have already been trying.

[DrFunkenstein]

14. Go Sharpton! Can You Dig It, C.C.?

So good, it's good to me.

P-funk fans will understand...

[Meshuga]

16. They call it the White House...

but that's a temporary condition. Can you dig it C.C.?

[DrFunkenstein]

17. LOL! A Fellow Funkateer At DU!

<>

[TheDonkey]

15. That's strange Clark dropped to 4th?

+/- 4 isn't all that great though.

[Jerseycoa]

21. Polling Firms Rated Here

Our Campaigns

It may not mean anything or it may mean something that this firm is rated 5. The poll a month ago showing Clark ahead was done by American Research Group, which has a rating of 10.

We just have to wait until a higher-rated polling firm polls again to see where we are.

[DemDogs]

23. That site is a joke

It lists lots of websites, but everyone has a five except maybe four pollsters. Only one has a ten -- ARG -- and Zogby as a two. ARG is a national joke; how could you not know that? They had Bush winning NH by 20 in January 2000, the night before -- get that, the night before McCain beat him by 19.

"Wait until a higher-rate polling firm?" There are none on that website, which you knew when you wrote that. Only four firms rated on the bogus site. I figure ARG (or someone who tells ARG what poll results it wants) sponsors it; that's the only way it score five times better than Zogby.

ARG does not try to meet demographic goals in their polling. All whites? Fine. All women? Fine. If you answer the phone, you are in their poll. Cheap and lousy, that's an ARG poll.

[Jerseycoa]

24. Actually

I only learned about that site yesterday, so don't assume what you don't know.

However, I do think there is something peculiar about the Greenville Poll in the way the Feldman Group poses questions. The only sensible thing I can see in this poll is that it included blacks.

Polling Data

If the Democratic Primary election for president were held today and the candidates were (read names) for whom would you vote?

Undecided 32
Edwards 15
Clark 10
Sharpton 10
Dean 9

Well, if the election were held today and you had to decide right now, would you lean toward?

Undecided 22
Edwards 17
Sharpton 12
Dean 11
Clark 10

If that candidate were not running who would you support?

Lieberman 14
Dean 12
Edwards 12
Gephardt 10

According to the article you posted, the telephone poll was conducted Nov. 20-23 for Greenville Magazine and has a sampling margin of error of 4 percentage points; and, "A new South Carolina Democratic presidential primary poll shows North Carolina Sen. John Edwards leading the race with the Rev. Al Sharpton not far behind. The Feldman Group Inc.'s poll of 400 likely voters in the Feb. 3 South Carolina presidential primary showed Edwards with 17 percent and Sharpton with 12 percent."

According to the polling data, 17% are leaning toward Edwards and 12% toward Sharpton. 15% would vote for Edwards and 10% for Sharpton or Clark. With the margin of error it looks closer than the AP article indicates for both Sharpton and Clark. And if the candidate list were different, Lieberman would lead.

Maybe you have no problem with this, maybe not. Maybe this poll makes some kind of sense to you, but I don't get it. I've asked about it a couple of times this post has floated in the past week, but didn't see a response. I will look into what you said about the other polling company. I had forgotten somebody said it was whites only. Pretty stupid if it was.

But I am not your enemy in any case. I happen to like Edwards. You would do better to challenge the person who is using a three year old interview with Christopher Hitchens to link Edwards, Hitchens and Bush instead of lashing out at me.

Just a suggestion, though. :shrug:

[a_lil_wall_fly]

19. GO EDWARDS AND THE REV.!!!!

:toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast:


Thou I think that Braun numbers will be better :D

[surfermaw]

20. Run Johnnie run,

You are the man Johnnie, run Johnnie run...Knew you would carry S.C and it looks like you have North Carolina in your column also, who was it that said you couldn't carry North Carolina, and it is looking better every day the hard headed white male is moving away from the alcholic play like cowboy from Texas..Bush

[burr]

28. Yes...And Clark as well as Dean!!!

:toast: :yourock: :toast: :beer: :thumbsup: :toast: :beer: :yourock: :evilgrin: :beer: :crazy: :yourock: :toast: :beer: :toast: :evilfrown: :beer: :hangover: :thumbsdown: BUMMER MAN!!!

you mean Clark and Edwards are really tied for first..while Dean, Lieberman, and Sharpton in the second-tier?

never trust a poll with 22% undecided...

[ajacobson]

25. Different numbers on this new poll

New ARG poll very different:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=790150

Feldman is well known Dem pollster, ARG polls are line with what they have done before, so who's correct?

[DemDogs]

26. Ask the Clark folks: Edwards in first in SC

Word has been around plenty that even the Clark folks didn't believe the ARG poll -- and with good reason. ARG has a terrible record based on their lousy polling techniques and standards.

[FrenchieCat]

27. Thread to the new poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=93085

Where Clark is polling higher over Edwards and everyone else...

[slinkerwink]

29. *snickers*

but....Clark dropped two points from 17% to 15%.....;-)

[AP]

30. ARG's method undercounts black voters (if memory serves)

nationally, in 2000, their polling was relatively accurate (I think I heard) but they use automatic telephone calls, which, apparently, undercount black voters. Not only is this a huge % of registered SC democrats, it's a demographic Edwards does particularly well with.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

31. So combining this poll with the ARG poll would look like this...

John Edwards 14.5%
Welsey Clark 12.5%
Al Sharpton 10.5%
Howard Dean 9.5%
Joseph Lieberman 9%
Richard Gephardt 7.5%
Carol Moseley-Braun 4.5%
John Kerry 4%
Dennis Kunnich 1%
Undecided 27%
with a MOE±4%


So that would be interesting.....Joseph Lieberman and Richard Gephardt is still in the revised polls MOE ..Darnation heheheehe