I Don't Know if Dean Needs to Win NH

[liberalpragmatist]

Though I'm a Kerry supporter, I'm enough of a realist to understand that he's doing much better than Kerry right now. While I hope Kerry wins, I'm not going to bet the house on it -- the race will almost surely tighten, but at this point I have to say Dean will probably make it out of there.

However, I seriously wonder if Dean evens needs to win NH. True, if he loses Ia. and NH it'll get a lot tougher for him, but his candidacy has so much enthusiasm from activists that he could easily follow it up with wins in Arizona, New Mexico and have his coiffers continually filling with money -- in short, he may not be able to be "stopped" even if he loses NH.

Kerry, even if he does win NH, will have a very tough race afterward.

Just some musings.

[tsipple]

1. You Are Correct, Sir

Cash is King, as they say. You can't buy the nomination, but money and organization never hurt.

That's how you win these things: amass the biggest, most effective, and best-funded organization you can. Then just run the drill.

That said -- and I am a Dean supporter -- there's a LOT of work ahead. Not a single vote has been cast, and anything can happen.

[wtmusic]

2. Dean's biggest challenge will be Clark

With former Clintonites solidly behind Clark and major support in the south, that will be Dean's biggest fight, NH or no.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. You are correct, sir.

That's why I observe that the three most likely candidates are Dean, Edwards or Clark.

Here's the scenario: Either HD or DG win Iowa. HD probably wins NH(60+% of those supporting him say their support is solid) Here comes SC. JE probably wins that but WK could sneak in there. HD probably places anywhere from 2-4. The same day as SC you have MO, OK and VA(caucus). Excellent fodder for JE and WK and DG(his last chance at a winner in MO). There is also AZ, DE, and NM(c) on that day. A strong chance for a sweep for HD on those three. Within 5 days, you have caucuses in MI, WA and ME, another strong group for HD. Next up is D.C., VA(p) and TN another group potentially strong for JE and WK.

So after 1 month, there may only be 3 winners (4 if Geppy stays in). They are HD, JE and WK. Then comes Super Tuesday on February 3 and the ball of wax is decided.




Notes:

While Kerry has pretty decent support in NH, where else is he even running second? I would assume that he's heavily favored in MA but that's it. (The MA primary isn't until March 2nd)

Lieberman, Sharpton, Braun and Kucinich would need a miracle.


Nice link for handy primary and caucus dates- http://www.maineaflcio.org/election%202004%20presidential%20primary%20dates.htm (thanks to the AFL-CIO)

[tsipple]

5. One Minor Correction

I thought I saw some polling that suggested around 80% of Dean's New Hampshire support is solid, "won't change mind," but maybe we're just looking at different polls.

Yeah, conventional wisdom suggests it's Dean certainly standing, and then some mix of (in order of current likelihood): Clark, Gephardt, Edwards, and Kerry. If Gephardt loses Iowa he's gone (and he probably sets up Missouri well for Dean). At present it looks like Gephardt lives another day in an Iowa squeaker. If Kerry loses New Hampshire, he's done. (At present that looks likely.) If Edwards loses South Carolina (to anyone), he's done. If Clark fails to win any states on February 3rd -- Oklahoma or South Carolina probably his best shots -- he's done.

If Lieberman surprises by winning any state through February 3rd, he's in for another round. Don't think that's likely.

Pretty simple, really. But anything can happen, because we've got a long time until this process runs.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. Now that you mention it...

I had it figured that if Dean received only half of the percentage of support that he now receives in NH from the 25% of undecideds, it's mathematically over. Because of that 80%(wasn't sure of the number and it's always better to underestimate or you'll hear about it). Also, I see Dean doing extremely well on Super Tuesday. Can you say CA and NY? Game over.

[chaumont58]

8. Howard Dean better win New Hampshire

He has all of this so called momentum, cash and endorsements. If that can not be turned into votes in a state adjacent to Vermont, it is going to look a little like all hat and no cattle. I am a Howard Dean supporter, but the rubber is getting ready to meet the road. No more 'poll leader' crap, when the primaries actually start, votes will count, the winners will laugh, the not-winners will go home.

[Philostopher]

3. I'm thinking all 'conventional wisdom' is going to have to go

in the circular file this time around.

I haven't decided yet whether this is more frightening or exciting -- the thought that it's all up in the air, and may be for the foreseeable future, could be a good thing in the long run, especially when it comes to campaigning against the 'true enemy.' I hope the fact that it's clearly not 'politics as usual' will make it as hard to run against one of the Dems as it appears to be for the Dems to run against each other.

It's scary for those of us on this side of the fence -- the left side, I mean -- but at the same time, no matter who comes out on top of the mud-wrestling match the Democratic primaries sometimes seem to be, if the voting populace is as volatile as I suspect, I don't know if any of the old rules are going to apply.

Just for the record, I am a Dean supporter, but even with all the infighting here on DU (and the mud that's being slung both between candidates and between candidate supporters), at heart I'm also an ABBer -- the only one I genuinely dislike is Lieberman, because I sense a certain cavalier attitude about the First Amendment in him that really bugs me. Even he's better than what's in there now, even if he is the least distinguishable of all the candidates whose hats are currently being trampled in the ring, in many ways.

It's like riding a rollercoaster, in some ways. Only problem for me is -- rollercoasters make me throw up.

[Redneck Socialist]

7. He has to win NH.

It is all about meeting expectations. If Dean loses NH (won't happen by the way) his support will dry up faster than a snowball in the sahara.

The real race is for third place in NH. Whoever comes in third will get a lot of media attention and a big bounce.

My money is on Edwards right now, but Gephardt may surprise people. He has something of a stealth campaign going on in NH right now.

[tsipple]

9. Re: 3rd Place in New Hampshire

There's a possibility -- maybe even a probability -- that, with such a big field, the third place finisher out of New Hampshire won't get any delegates. In that case I'm not sure it helps anyone much.

We'll know in January. It's coming up soon.

[helleborient]

13. 3rd place in single digits...

Which is where it is right now, won't garner much attention.

It has to be a respectable 3rd place...at least 15% in my opinion.

[LuminousX]

10. First real test

NH is the first real test with all the candidates in the mix. Dean has to win if he wants to be seen as someone who can follow through with his campaigning. If he doesn't, then he will be seen as all talk with no action.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

11. New NH poll numbers

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/N/NEW_HAMPSHIRE_POLL?SITE=IADES&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Dean leads Kerry 39-23 in the latest Marist poll in NH, up from 35-22 in Sept.

Anything could happen there still, but time is flying and Dean is staying firmly in the lead there.

[Stuckinthebush]

12. Dean will win NH

Count on it.

Now, he needs to focus on SC, Iowa, and the rest of the nation.

Personally, I think he will do very well and I believe he will be the one going into the convention with the most state delegates. The super-delegates are another issue.

It's going to be interesting.

[helleborient]

14. There is attention by Dean's people here in Illinois...

And with Jesse Jackson, Jr. as well as David Wilhelm's organization in support...he's got a great start here.

[Padraig18]

15. IL looks VERY good for Dean.

I've seen some internal Democratic polling, and it looks very much like another "It's Dean's to lose" state.