New nationwide Zogby Poll: Dean moves from fourth to tied for first

[CMT]

Howard Dean's momentum continues according to a new nationwide Zogby poll of Democratic and Democratic leaning Independents.

Nationally, Democrats have a three way tie between Dean, Gephardt, and Lieberman for the nomination:

Dean: 12% (up from 4% in March)
Gep: 12% (up from 11% in March)
Lieberman: 12% (down from 18% in March)
Kerry: 9% (same as in March)
Sharpton: 4%
Edwards 3%
Mosley Braun 2%
Kucinich 2%
Graham 1%

Geographically:
The East:
Lieberman: 13%
Dean: 13%
Mosley Braun 5%
Gep 4%
Kerry 4%
Sharpton 4%

The South:
Gep 15%
Lieberman 11%
Kerry 9%
Sharpton 9%
Dean 5%

Central/Great Lakes:
Gep: 15%
Dean: 13%
Lieberman 11%
Kerry 8%

The West:
Dean 17%
Kerry 14%
Gep: 12%
Lieberman 11%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=724

[caledesi]

1. Dean's got the big "MO"

[MissouriTeacher]

2. .

Wow. That's impressive.

At least they didn't ask whether they'd vote for Hillary. :eyes:

[dajabr]

6. MissouriTeacher...

Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[MissouriTeacher]

8. Thanks!

:toast:

[the masses against the classes]

3. those numbers for lieberman give me a chill

tell me he won't be getting the nomination...please!

[MissouriTeacher]

5. .

At this point I think he's still getting a lot of votes based on name-recognition only.

Remember how frighteningly little most Americans pay attention to politics. That's why I made the comment about not asking about Hillary. People say they'd vote for her because they haven't got a clue about any of the real candidates.

[NewJerseyDem]

14. Some Democrats did support war

So, there will be people who back Lieberman. I think that some are probably voting purely on name recognition but probably a lot are the more moderate voters and the more hawkish democrats.

[CMT]

7. Joe has dropped five points since March

I agree that his numbers are based somewhat on name recognition.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

23. nationwide polls are 100% irrelevant to the nomination process

nationwide polls are 100% irrelevant to the nomination process. It's just a way for the media to avoid talking about the issues.

[Nicholas_J]

24. Not at all

Nationwide polls are the most valid way to tell what is actually going on. But it is necessary to look at the results of all national polls, the methods they use to poll, and the number of people they polled. And then average out the results of all of the polls, to get a real idea.

I prefer Harris and Gallop, as they have the longest record and have been able to hone their techiques better than the newer polling services. I guess out of the two of these, I would say that Harris uses the most accurate models, but even the time of day a the polling firms call the homes of people they are gong to poll can cause significant differences in the results. But Harris tends to poll less frequently, than some of the other polling servcices.

What is clear is that no one has taken a significant lead, and the number of undecided are growing too small for all but one or two of the candidates to get over 37 percent of the selection. If no one gets that high a majority of the delegates, the nomination is decided by the DNC and the DLC. Sort of like how an electoral college for primaries. It is always possible for the party to keep a candidate from getting the nomination by kepping a large number of candidates running to keep anyone from getting a significant majority, and then selecting the person they beleive most electable.

[FoxNewsIsTheDevil]

31. Why? His numbers are TANKING.

For a guy who was exposed as nationally as he was in '00. He is doing HORRIBLY.

[LuminousX]

4. Dean's Looking Good

Across the country. He needs to do something about The South, though. I mean, really, if Gephardt is leading in the South, Dean should have no problem. I'm shocked Kerry isn't doing better in the East. That low number makes me curious about the poll. Ditto with Lieberman's popularity in the West.

[GumboYaYa]

9. Dean needs to get his message out in the South.

His position on guns will go a long way down there. All they here is East Coast liveral. Vermont is rural too. Dean knows how to reach these people. He is not an ivory tower liberal. He is a man of the people. Whne that message starts to reach people, his numbers in the South will increase.

[FoxNewsIsTheDevil]

32. He needs to get his gun message out in the South.

It should go over well. The civil unions thing won't though. His war chest is getting large enough that he can start to spend an effort in SC IMO. A top 3 showing would be very good for that state.

[LuminousX]

37. He needs to be competitive in SC

You are right, a top 3 showing would be good. He won't coast to that spot though, I want to see how he will campaign there. It will also see if he holds steady on his positions or if he starts to waver. Of course I expect him to highlight his gun stance and his death penalty stance because both issues will play well.

I think he will also get some extra attention because there won't be a GOP primary to contend with.

[TheBigGuy]

42. I agree about SC...#2 or #3 is what id expect for viability..

...If he comes at #3 Dean is still viable. If hes in at #2, he is on a real roll...

[whirlygigspin]

49. Go south young man!

I think he will if he gets through NH ok

[CookieD]

44. Dean Trailing in Online Poll

I have been trying to get the word out on this. Here is the url to an online poll in which Dean is trailing and Lieberman is pulling away.

http://www.democrats.us/beta/forum/view_forum.php?id=10

The website is at www.democrats.us It apparently just launched and looks fairly interesting. Lots of good news stuff.

[whirlygigspin]

59. weeeeeeeeeeeeee!

.

[Ediacara]

10. what happened to Kerry?

I had thought that it would be a Dean-Kerry race, not a Dean-Gep/Lieberman race. These numbers are good, but somewhat surprising.

[lastliberalintexas]

19. Yes, I hope Kerry pulls his numbers up

I like any of the 9 and can find many positive things to say about any of them. But my first 2 choices are (1) Dean and (2) Kerry, and I'd like to see the race tighten to the 2 of them.

NOT meant as a slam to the other candidates. I know we have many here who support the others, and I'd happily vote for any of them too.

[Nicholas_J]

27. Kerry has not actually been campaigning

The last campaigning he has really been seen doing, was in the Iowa town hall meetings over a month ago. He begins formally campaigning after labor day, and I understand the gloves are going to come off, and he will be hitting very hard and fast.

The political records of a number of candidates will be very focused on and comparisons made.

When Kerry was out of the picture for a month or so after his cancer surgery his polls went down significantly.

When he started up again, he surged forward. He has not been actively campaigning for two months, and will actively begin high level campaigning in September.

Theresa Kerry cannot spend money directly on her husbndas campaign, but can spend unlimited funds directing media attention at the records of other candidates.

[whirlygigspin]

30. very surprising

it will be interesting to view the Aug. crystal ball.

Larry Sabato's...www.centerforpolitics.org

[cjbuchanan]

11. What can Dean do about the South?

One issue a lot of people worry about is will a Dean nomination just write off the South? Dean does not have to win any of the South (if he wins all the states Gore did plus one, like New Hampshire), but they have to be competitive enough to force Bush & Co. to spend time and money there.

Looking at these numbers, one has to wonder if Dean does have a problem in the South. What can he do to improve those numbers?

Please don't take this as me attacking Dean because I am not. He has a lot of momentum and these numbers show what he can do, but I'm just wondering if he can overcome his Southern issue.

[lastliberalintexas]

20. I think he needs to get his message out

Yes, the civil unions issue will hurt with some Southern voters, but those people would not vote for a Dem even it our candidate was Jesus Christ himself. Those people have been brainwashed into believing that they must vote repub in order to be a "good Christian" so none of our people can appeal to them.

I think that Dean can pull in more support once people here start learning about him. When I am able to tell people a little about him, they become almost instant converts. And when they see him in action, they become very loyal supporters. He is different on the one issue that may make a difference in the South and the West- guns.

As things stand now, I don't think any of the Dems will be able to win back any Southern state other than West Virginia. The whole "war culture" ideology may still prevent us from winning down here. But I think Dean (b/c of his stand on guns) can make a few of those races tight, thereby forcing Shrub to actually spend some money down here.

The numbers from the South refelct the fact that most Southern Dems are still union types and/or minorities. Gephardt has very good strength with the unions and is higher than most in name recognition. I think that just might show his relative strength at this time rather than the others' weakness.

[Upfront]

22. Hell Yes!

All Dean has to do is go south and talk. The people in the south have been waiting for Dean, and they will find it out soon.:)

[Nicholas_J]

25. Dean will have SERIOUS problems in the south

AS his profile is the exact opposite of the Southern Profile, which is Socially COnservative, and Fiscally Liberal.

Most Southern Democrats are either poor or minorities and poor as well. South Carolina's Democratic population is 47 percent black, and black southern democrats are very socially conservative, they largest group of democrats to support the invasion of Iraq, tend to prefer that the governoment make military solutions for such problems.
They are pretty much the democratic version of what in the Republican party would be called, the "THEO-CONS". Their churches and the opinions of their churches are heavily involved in their political stances. They are more for gun control, more likely to oppose partial birth abortion, and not very much in favor of things like Civil Unions. THey do not mind gays, but in general, have a "DONT ASK,DONT TELL" policy when it comes to thinking about gays.

Dean pro gun stance will gain him a little slack, but his signing of the Civil Union act will do serious damage in the socially conservative south.

Let me put it this way. I know a considerable number of souther democrats who voted for Bush against the democrats becuse of Bill Clinton's escapades in the oval office with monica. Some just changed becasue they had to tell their younger children what fellatio meant. after hearing about it during the impeachement trials....

A really socially conservative bunch of voters.

[LuminousX]

36. Should Dean NOT have signed the Civil Union legislation?

Which of the top tier candidates will do well in the South?

[Nicholas_J]

53. Anyone but Dean

I do not agree on Deans Civl Union decision. It was wishy washy.

The issue that is now going to make a sttrong case for Bush and an anti gay marriage amendment is going to happen NOW, and it will streenthen Bush's republican position, his position in the south. Had Dean selected to go with Gay Marriages, this issue would have been over two years ago, and not vreated an environment that will be positive for Bush. Deans delaying tactic, the separate but equal tactic will hurt him. Anything he did would regarding gays would have hurt him in the South, but being stronger and showing greater leadership on EQUAL rights, rather than separate but equal, would have enraged Republicans, but given him better leadership credentials in the Democratic arena, much like Kerry arguing about the persecutions of gays in the military, out in thew open, in public, on the floor of the Senate, out loud, for everybody to see.

The way Dean did it, behing closed doors, the choice he made, which has caused a division between gays who support his ideas and those who do not, have caused Dean another problem that indicating his caving to the right, in fear of their opinion, and losing their votes. Dean did not win his elections due to massive democratic support, but mostly by moderate Republican support. Rather than taking the bull by the horn and keeping RELIGION out of politics, Dean took the safe route.

Not saying that he shouldnt have done it, it seemed the safest thing for him to do, but when the country is in trouble people are going to end up looking for someone who has been BOLD in confronting difficulties, political or otherwise. Kerry has always stood his ground even when other Dems were running for cover and afraid of the political fallout. When he oppposed Nixon, Reagan, and Poppy Bush, even his friends were predicting that they would destroy this political career.

Dean is actually attacking the Very DLC that saved his ass afrter he signed the Civil Unions Act and made sure he had more than enough money to stop the massive funding Rith Dwyer and the "Take Back Vermont" movement were raising to get rid of Dean. Without that funding, Dean came within a few votes of losing the 2000 election due to his loss of large numbers of votes to the progressive party due to his extreme consevatism in Vermont. It was the DLC that mad sure he got the 50 percent of the vote needed. If Dean had only gotten 49 percent, then the REPUBLICAN legislature would have decided who would be governor in 2000, by secret ballot.


No, I do not think signing the civil unions act was wrong, but it wasnt right enough, nor did it show leadership under fire. MAny Vermont gays think the same. Enough for Dean to not have the united support of gays.

[MercutioATC]

56. So Dean would be better off with "Gay Marriage" instead of "Civil Union"?

What are your PERSONAL definitions of "civil union" and "gay mariage"? Compare and contrast...

[Brotherjohn]

12. This is purely all name recognition at this point. Nearly meaningless.

nt

[cjbuchanan]

13. Look at his favorable rating

I think the most impressive part of this report is that 61% (the third highest number) of respondents said they were unfamiliar with Dean, yet he is still tied for first place.

It is also interesting to note that people like both Kerry and Dean once people know who they are (formula: July favorable rating / (100-Unfamilar ratings)). Both Kerry and Dean are at 84%.

Where will we be in October?

[blm]

15. He's had all the media attention with little scrutiny for months

He SHOULD be in that spot. Like the big bump that Edwards got in January after his news cycle.

Kucinich should have gotten most of that media attention that Dean got. His antiwar message was more forceful and SINCERE.

When Kerry kicks into his next gear in the fall, THEN let's see if Dean can hold him back.

[dsc]

16. Please site one poll

in which Edwards was above third place nationally. Given what you said that should be very easy to find.

[blm]

17. I said he had a big bump after he announced in January...

and had media focus for about a week. I never said he dominated. Dean has had the media attention for months. He SHOULD be there on top.

[Larkspur]

18. Edwards was 2nd in the Newsweek poll in January

at 14% when he was 2nd to Lieberman, but has dropped to 6th in the recent Newsweek poll.

Edwards, the JFK looking face, is actually dropping faster than Lieberman.

[Nicholas_J]

54. In North Carolina

His own state, recent polls in the Charlotte Observer have Edwards up to 37 percent.That was a few months ago. I have read recent articles that he is now up to 47 percent in North Carolina, but Bush is at 55 percent. In his own state, that would not be uncommon.

Still not enough to beat Bush in his own state though

[Vis Numar]

21. Kick ass!

Kerry in fourth, lololololol, he is a loser!

[MercutioATC]

26. Kerry is NOT a "loser" based on this poll

It's ONE POLL. I'm a Dean supporter, but I do appreciate some of what Kerry has to say. Kerry is definitely not a loser here. He is a first-tier candidate with some very good ideas.

The "lololololol loser" thing is just childish.

[Nicholas_J]

28. Also

With the Margin of error, Kerry falls within the margin for the top 4 as the 9 percent falls within the margin of error for to pllace him equally with the other 3

[whirlygigspin]

29. wow!

this is gonna cause some shuffling of chairs

[Woodstock]

33. Sweet!

:kick:

[Woodstock]

34. this says it all

Dean shows the most significant movement since March polling, doubling his favorable rating from 16% to 32% and reducing his ‘unfamiliar’ from 75% to 61%. Lieberman and Gephardt both suffered slight losses in favorability, coupled with 5-point increases in unfavorability.

[whirlygigspin]

35. check it out

these numbers are great!

[The Sushi Bandit]

38. Another KRAP poll

what was their sample, 64 elderly jewish voters in Dade county?
Kucinich has big appeal in california and oregon but this showed nothing?? Get REAL!

[dpbrown]

39. Dean is unelectable

There are two strategies for winning.

The DLC strategy says: the pie is always shrinking, and 40% always vote one way and 40% always vote the other way, so engage in focus-group politics to snare enough of the 20% in the "middle" to win.

The "conviction politician" says: people are disenchanted and will respond to a healthy, populist message, and that will bring non-traditional voters to the polls, thereby dipping into the other, bigger pie of people who don't vote.

Kerry, Gephardt, Graham, and Lieberman subscribe to the first theory.

Kucinich subscribes to the second.

Dean subscribes to neither. His followers are "proud" of pissing off both the so-called centrists, as well as dissing the "thinking liberals." His entire support structure, so far, is made up very vocal activists in the middle between liberals and centrists.

There's no way that kind of constituency will translate into a win against Bush, a guy who got enough votes to steal the election by "being a guy someone could have a beer with."

It's time for a conviction politician to win. While Kerry is making some moves in that direction, Kucinich is already there. He wins in a conservative district filled with "Reagan Republicans."

Kucinich is the politician the people have been waiting for. Wake up and smell the new day in America.

http://www.kucinich.us/electable.htm

Dan Brown
Saint Paul, Minnesota

[gully]

40. Dan..

Your such an asset to DK. I think that's great! I'm a Dean supporter, but I admire/respect your position.

:D

[whirlygigspin]

47. would you like to buy an Edsel?

I swear, it's the greatest car ever!

[TheBigGuy]

41. anyone suprised to see Geps strenght in these polls?

I was.

Your going to have to expect alot of what the polls are showing is name recognition, which means its pretty obvious Lieberman is in the running in this poll.

But Gephardt is doing alot better and Kerry alot worse than id expect.

Also note that the real story here is DEAN. Dean is doing pretty damn good this early in the primary season.

[CookieD]

43. Dean Trails in Online Poll

I know this isn't "scientific," but Gov. Dean is trailing in an online poll. I voted and saw that Lieberman is pulling away. Here is the url:

http://www.democrats.us/beta/forum/view_forum.php?id=10

The website apparently just launched and looks pretty interesting. It is at www.democrats.us

[Name removed]

46. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JHS]

45. Give me a break . . .

1. They only polled 504 likely voters nationwide.

2. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.4%.


It could well be a tie or not accurate at all!!!!

[Le Taz Hot]

48. So, does this mean we won't be getting

any more posts claiming, "He's only got 4% nationally!" Nahhhhh. B-)

[polpilot]

50. Dean will win in a landslide. The DLC can't stand this. Look for them to

trot out their latest 'Dean can't win' propaganda.

Dean '04

[Nicholas_J]

51. Dean has to have DLC support

To get the nomination...

The delgates are not obligates to vote for Dean...
AS it stands, in the polls Dean does not have anything like the total number of votes that thhe combined DLC candidates will have, Dean is still way way below 37 percent in ANY poll, but add up the DLC candidates votes in all polls and you come up with about 65 percent of the voters and therefore delegates. Without a clear majority, the delegates especailly those DLC delegates choose. There are not enough undecided left in the polls for Dean to pull ahead to get a clear majority even if EVERY undecided voter chooses to vote for him. No matter what, the DLC can now trump Dean at any time. No candidate will puill out before the nomination, and then when no one comes out with a clear majority, the choice goes to whoever the DNC chooses. This will not be Dean. The DLC is already talking Kerry. The majority of AMericans support DLC candidates, not Deans anti-DLC attacks. A DLC candidate will be chosen.

And the DLC will not select Dean.

[MercutioATC]

52. If Dean gets a plurality and the DLC has delegates "select" somebody

else, that will be the END of the DLC. That is equally true of any candidate. I'm suppoorting Dean, but if Kucinich got a plurality and the DLC steped in and got somebody else nominated, I'd spend my last breath making sure they never got the opportunity to do so again.

[Nicholas_J]

55. Hardly

As poss note...DLC candidates have FAR FAR FAR more support than Dean has.

Those who support the DLC candidate are not going to ruch in outrage to take apart the DLC because Deans minority does not get selected.

As a matter of fact, all Dean has to rely on is that Sharpton and Moseley Brain will Decide to back Dean if they do not, Dean does not even have a plurality by DNC rules. The other candidates can all sit down and decide to turn over their support to ONE candidate, and that is that. Dean will still not have a plurality. Right now he cannot even get one. As along as the other candidates ALL remain in the race, Dean cannot get a plurality. And will not get one.

Dean has been attacking the DLC and the entire party from the beginning, and as such,they are not obligated to support Dean.
AS a matter of fact, they are in a position to end Deans political career for the rest of his life at this point. FRom the little Zogby Poll


DLC CAndidates
Gep: 12% (up from 11% in March)
Lieberman: 12% (down from 18% in March)
Kerry: 9% (same as in March)
Edwards 3%
Kucinich 2%
Graham 1%

40 percent.





Non-DLC Candidates

Dean: 12% (up from 4% in March)
Sharpton: 4%
Mosley Braun 2%

18 percent.

This poll does not accurately record decided and undecided votes as Gallop.

And the undecided in those polls is about 14 percent.

Now you have to assume that Mosely Braun and Sharpton are going to give Howard Dean their blessings. Not likely.

Denas stance on the Death Penelty and other issues is just not going to play well with blacks. His recent. INCREMENTALISM in Health care will not get them black votes either.

SO right now Dean by himself has 12 percent of the population, but DLC candidates have more than 300 percent more public support. If you analyze the Zogby poll. If you look at the Gallops, DLC candidates have the support of almost 600 percent over Dean. Sorry, this is politics and Dean decided to tke the attack those who made backed me in my political career stance, He played dirty politics. Sorry, If he ends up being at the recieving end ot the dirt he handed out. so be it. But all those who supported DLC candidates are not going to suddenly support the guy who was trouncing their favorite. Nor will they turn on the DLC in anger.

It is more likely that Denas political carteer will be finished not the DLC. And if they beat Bush by selecting an electable candidate this time instead of selecting a McCarthy or McGovern attacker of the party, Dean will be forgotten forever by the day after election day 2004.

Sorry, they are not going to walk off in a huff about Dean not being chosen by the party. And at this rate, Dean cannot get a plurality, even if every one of the remaining assumed undecided voters in this poll ALL vote for him which is unlikely. NOt everone is going to support Dean and even if he increases. It is no longer evn possible for Dean or ANY candidate to get the nomination through plurality. Which is why the DLC is already casting its eye about as to who is most likely to win.


NOw lets look at the latest Gallops:

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. July 25-27, 2003. N=384 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 6.
.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. . . ."


DLC Candidates

7/25-27/03
%
Joe Lieberman 21
Dick Gephardt 16
John Kerry 15
John Edwards 6
Bob Graham 4
Dennis Kucinich 2

64 percent

Non DLC

Howard Dean 11
Carol Moseley Braun 6
Al Sharpton 5

22 percent



Other -
No one 2
No opinion 12

14 percent

THis time we have a poll that adds up to 100 percent


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Dean must now get EVERY UNDECIDED VOTER, EVERONE WHO either wants Sharpton or Mosely Braun to turn their votes to him.

Again, not likely to occur.

Statistically, it is not likely for anyone to win, but it is likely that the party itself will have to decide to select a candidate.

Not likely that anyone who supports other DLC candidates is going to get too angry if the party does not decide to select Dean.

No matter where Dean goes in the polls, he does not trump the total of DLC votes. Unless someone gets up above 35 percent, they are not likely to be supported.

[MercutioATC]

57. I DID say a plurality...If he doesn't have that, the DLC is within their r

to "advise" what they will.

I also notice that you tend to make absolute statements based on numbers that change rapidly "Dean: 12% (up from 4% in March)".

You DO realize that that's a 300% increase in 4 months, right? I'll cede that nobody knows what NEXT month's numbers will be, but (should it happen) at what point would you admit that Dean's increasing numbers bear some relevance?

And, again, I had to scroll. $1 to Gov. Dean's campaign..

[burr]

58. With the margin of error, it is a two tiered race.

Dean, Lieberman, Gephardt, and Kerry in the top tier, and everyone else in the bottom tier.

In the south, Gephardt and Lieberman have the most name recognition in a region that has become the base of the Republican Party.

But I have two questions after seeing this poll.

Why is Kerry so weak in the east, but so much stronger in the west?

And does Al Sharpton have the potential to win some of the democratic primaries in the south, just as Jesse Jackson did?