Press The Meat: Novakula -- New Registers: Why Dean Will Win it All

[Dems Will Win]

One thing pundits and even DUers are ignoring is that Dean is attracting young New Registered Voters by the thousands and that they are obviously not included in the polls which are only called from registered voter lists! And some polls don't even update their lists regularly so Dean's numbers can vary wildly from poll to poll.

Most polls I would add several points to whatever Dean's numbers are. Then you will have a more accurate view of the election day outcome. When Ventura won in MN the same phenomenon happened and he pulled an extra 12% on the polling. That was same-day voting but figure Dean should do half of that.

When you consider that and then realize that these young Deanies are going to LOVE going to an Iowa caucus for 3 hours and cheer for their guy and vote for their guy, that they are going to win Iowa, then NH and the nomination.

I had been thinking this and then Novakula mentioned the New Registers today on Press the Meat--that if Dean's rally-goers turn out at the caucus, Dean beats Gephardt.

And with Dean only 6 points behind Bush in the Newsweek poll a year before the eletion, doing better than any other candidate, add his 6 points from Young New Registers and Dean is already tied with Bush!

Fast-forward to the general election, those young New Registers vote for the first time in their life and Dean's million-strong grassroots organization will beat the Republican GOTV to the punch. Dr. Dean will then need to schedule a Bushectomy for the White House on January 21, 2005!

The combination of Dean and the Internet is nothing less than a revolution in politics in this country. This could well be the most pivotal moment in all of our live's and I urge all of you to re-double your efforts and support the good Doctor.

[caledesi]

1. Great post DWW! This is SO true. Check out the vide of Dean

talking to college folks. Uncanny! This man is going to the top.

[sfecap]

2. Excellent post!

And right on the money!

[displacedtexan]

3. john mccain also inspired young people to register

and they voted for * (after the rnc circled the wagons).

i like dean, but i don't think the dnc will risk hundreds of millions of dollars (that includes state and local candidate dollars) on a prez candidate so far from the mainstream. those fence sitting yahoos (34% of registered voters) will be the determining factor in the party's choice.

[dofus]

4. Another important thing about Dean

is that people who never before ever contributed to a candidate are contributing as much as they can afford to Dean. THAT'S a man who is inspiring people as never before.

[Dems Will Win]

6. I was for Kerry but now I'm for Dean because...

...he is the best Democratic politician since Clinton, JFK, Truman and FDR -- all of them were fighters.

I've been a local professional Democratic consultant for 2 decades now and believe me--we haven't seen anything like Dean since those guys. And it will be turning out the base that will win and Dean is getting the swing to swing his way anyhow!

Kerry, although he has a good record, could go WimpoCrat on us at a crucial point in the campaign. The voters are mad as hell and if you aren't angry too as the candidate, they wonder what's wrong with you and get turned off.

[blm]

9. Then I suggest you read up on the 96 campaign

and see what a Wimpocrat he is.

Dean gives many people the creeps, and he won't look so hot with negative ads against him showing his real record compared to his campaign rhetoric. Bush isn't going to show him the mercy that fellow Dems give him. They could run ads tomorrow against Dean using his own words to show how he manipulated many to believe he was antiwar when he wasn't. He was for an IWR with the Biden-Lugar amendment. Not much different than those he criticizes.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

14. It would probably be pointless to point out that Biden-Lugar was

completely different than the IWR. B-L required UN support and follow up with Congress, where the IWR didn't.


The Biden-Lugar proposal
requires that any military action taken against Iraq be to enforce U.N. Security
Council resolution 687 (calling for the dismantlement of Iraq’s weapons of mass
destruction and ballistic missile program), or to defend the United States or its allies
against Iraq’s use of its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile program.
Biden-Lugar, furthermore, requires that the President consult with congressional
leadership prior to engaging U.S. military force, and that certain conditions have been
met. Biden-Lugar requires the President to prepare follow-up reports on plans to
reconstruct Iraq, economically and politically, following the use of force. http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/Files/RL31596.pdf


Simply put, B-L required where the IWR suggested.

[blm]

15. Yet, Bush would have done what he intended anyway.

He referred back to the original UN resolution to say he already had the authority.

Bush is a minimum requirement guy. In fact, BushInc. are experts at it.

[Larkspur]

16. That may be so, but Kerry voted to give Bush a blank check

Biden-Luger would have at least given Congress some authority and responsibily in writing to go after Bush if he broke Biden-Luger.

Kerry should have voted on the 2002 IWR the same way he voted on the current 2003 $87 billion package to Iraq -- NO!!! Kerry was gambling with our soldiers lives and our taxpayers money that Saddam had WMD's, even though intelligence reports were inconclusive or showing that Saddam had no WMD's. He gambled hoping to ride the pro-war wave and hoping that Bush tripped up in the reconstruction phase. He never anticipated the Bush using the war drums to defeat the Democrats in 2002 nor that Bush had no commonsense about waging war. Kerry is myopic and unfit to be the Democratic Presidential nominee.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

20. 'Zactly.

Kerry likes to bring up Dean's support of Biden-Lugar as if it were the same thing as the IWR. Why? Because it gives him cover if you haven't read it(That includes 99.5% of America). Kerry supporters can refer to Dean supporting B-L but they can't provide a single statement where he supports the IWR. It's a shell game.

Although I disagree that Kerry is unfit to be President, this issue is bullshit.

[blm]

30. Dean being labeled antiwar is bullshit and you don't mind that.

.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Sure, Chimp would have gone his merry way.

However, B-L would have been the operational document. Failure of Shrub to adhere to it would have had consequences that the IWR doesn't. He would have been defying the will of Congress! With the IWR, no such breach.


Two completely different things.

[LuminousX]

23. For the good of the party

Dean's opponents had better take him down. If they have the 'silver bullet' they better use it because Dean is taking a lot of money from them at this point in time. If they think going easy on him (now honestly, have they really gone easy on Dean?) somehow helps the party and them, they are sadly mistaken.

[KaraokeKarlton]

28. There is no "silver bullet"

That's why they keep resorting to butchering a couple of very old quotes to try to mislead voters into thinking Dean is against Medicare and Social Security. They have no choice but to lie about him because there is NO dirt on Dean. On top of that, none of the silly crap they throw at Dean hurts him in any way. In fact, the more he's attacked, the stronger he gets. The same will be the case against Bush. The more Team Bush attacks Dean, the stronger Dean will get and none of it will stick. None of the other candidates have this same deflection ability.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

11. You make an excellent point

I fear that without the pressure from DK and Dean to expose the * lies, Kerry never would have come out against * like he has. Kerry was pushed into it. He's certainly not a leader, he's a follower. If Kerry were to win the nomination, I fear he'd go right back to being the guy who says what ever will get him votes, not what he truly believes. He will not stand up to the deceit of the administration.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

12. "Local professional Democratic consultant" endorses Dean!

Thanks DWW! You are obviously experienced and well-informed!

And I agree that these new registered voters will make a huge and possibly surprising boost for Dean.

Let's keep in mind though that the RNC is also pushing hard to register the youngsters...we have to fight for our voters on college campuses. Let's go!

[Speck Tater]

25. I have voted since Ike, but NEVER contributed until Dean.

So it's not just kids that are being won over by this phenomenon. In fact there are a lot of 50-somethings and 60-somethings at my local Dean meetup.

[CordeliaB]

26. dean's concrete policy?

As a Democrat doing preliminary research on the candidates, I was impressed by the bulk of sentiment behind Dean, but I cannot really understand what his concrete policies are. He seems to champion a lot of things (eg universal health care) that I believe in, but at the same time, I don't know whether such policies are actually feasible in this day in age. Furthermore, I REALLY want George Bush out of the White House ASAP, and I don't know that Dean will be able to gather the votes with this ambitious agenda beyond the DNC. Could someone explain, please?

[Dems Will Win]

27. Dean's policies

Dean and Kerry are very similar. Compare their Web pages on their ideas like agriculture for example. Here Dean beats Kerry for having a thought-out policy, at least on the Web page. And Dean also cleverly calls for study of the GM crops, which is innocuous in itself but has been avoided by the corporatists all this time because it is the first step to their ban, as it has been in England the last few weeks.

So although Dean defused the GM issue with farmers, he really intends to do something about it. And Dean's stance on guns defuses the anti-gun vote for the swing states of TN, AR, PA, NH, etc. All in all, whatever weakness his antiwar stance might cause in those states, his outsider status and NRA rating will serve him well there.

Kerry was first with his energy plan and then Dean copied it. They are both very close but I think Dean has thought even more than Kerry in foreign policy, as he wants to really attack global poverty in a systematic way and sees that as important as combatting terrorism.

[blm]

32. Dean cribbed his foreign policy from Kerry, too.

Read Kerry's foreign policy speech and then read Dean's. Bear in mind that last May, Gary Hart said in an interview that Dean had called him saying, "Gary, what do I do?" Gary Hart has been advising Democrats on foreign policy for decades. He said there are two candidates who can't handle it, Dean and Lieberman.

[KaraokeKarlton]

29. Dean is the only one I'm positive will beat Bush

As long as the usual Democratic voters get behind him at the polls, there is no way Bush can beat Dean. Democrats always talk about "getting out the vote" and "attracting new voters and the people who don't vote". These are always supposedly priorities every election. Dean has done this. He's got people motivated and paying attention that both never have before and haven't for a long time. These new voters and voters returning to the process will be plenty enough to make it impossible for Bush to win. On top of that, Dean appeals most to Independents, swing voters and will take a lot of moderate Republican votes from Bush. People will be talking about the "Dean Republicans" in the same way they still talk about the "Reagan Democrats". Howard Dean isn't just empowering voters, he is empowering the whole Democratic Party.

[tedoll78]

5. YES~!

This is what I've been claiming all along!

It looks like the nation is resuming its old 50-50 split situation. If Dean's presence in the race brings-up turnout a mere 3% (out of the 100 million votes cast), and if the nation is indeed about 50-50, we can assume that those 3% are going directly into Dean's column. It'd be statistically difficult for him to lose in the electoral college then..

[Dems Will Win]

7. It's the Swing States in the Electoral College

It will all come down to the swing states:

FL, PA, MI, NM, WI, TN, AR, NH, NV. The rest of the states will probably vote the same as last time although the South has gotten hit hard by the job losses and Bush could lose GA. OH too might be a Dem state this time. So if you live near or in one of those states clear the deck for September and October 2004 and get ready to knock on doors, phone bank, etc. etc.

It's starting to look like Bush's only chance is MIHOP because Osma has figured out that LIHOP in this country would just help Bush and so is fighting him in Iraq. So I'm predicting MIHOP big-time. Grab your tin-foil hats.

And for you anti-conspiracy-theory people out there, I say I am not a Conspiracy Nut, as I and the 9-11 Panel want the truth. Anyone who doesn't believe in LIHOP at this point is a COINCIDENCE NUT: someone who irrationally believes in a series of 128 coincidences concerning the true history of 9-11. And all the families want answered is their 128 unanswered questions.

Unless it's Plan B for the Bushies! In that case, the BFEE figures they take one-term and then go right on stealing the US Treasury blind with all of their insiders. Worked great during the Clinton Administration when they continued to steal money left and right.

[Vis Numar]

8. YEA!!!

Right on!

[Cocoa]

10. serious question about Novak...

why does he still have a job? If he didn't get fired for his role in that leak, what does it take? A wooden stake?


edit: the other question is why is he taken seriously here, talking about the dem primaries? If his role in that leak didn't expose him as a tool of the republicans, what will, etc. etc.

[blm]

13. They don't want Kerry. Too many in intel community lining up behind

him. Wilson, too. Novak NEEDS Bush to stay in office now to protect his ass and doesn't want to hear Kerry make the case against Bush one on one with the American people paying attention. Now the people aren't paying attention and Novak and Bush benefit from that.

[helleborient]

17. To get the American people's attention...

It is first necessary for a Democrat to get the attention of other Democrats...unfortunately John Kerry shows inability to do this en masse.

[DrFunkenstein]

18. Let's Look At Your Iowa Comment

"When you consider that and then realize that these young Deanies are going to LOVE going to an Iowa caucus for 3 hours and cheer for their guy and vote for their guy, that they are going to win Iowa, then NH and the nomination."

I don't disagree with you. My question is "How will the other supporters feel about the Deanies?" If it is anything like DU, don't expect too many people to jump on board the S.S. Deano.

My suspicion is that they will flee from him like cockroaches under a flashlight.

Note: I didn't call them cockroaches. I only compared them.

[Dems Will Win]

19. Dr Funk, We Love You, But...

You are the strongest, smartest Kerry supporter here and I love Kerry and used to be for him over Dean but I'm coming to see that Dean is literally running rings around him and the whole rest of the field.

And the McGovern/Mondale rap on Dean is now completely bogus according to the Newsweek poll which showed Bush 47, Dean 43 and Bush 50%, Kerry 42%, so suddenly Dean's new registers and his inroads with independents and Republicans is making itself felt--and we're talking 12 months and 1 week before the '04 General!

This is unheard of in a Presidential. Of course, this time everyone is paying far more attention as the entire fate of the world hangs in the balance--that's all.

As for an Iowa Caucus being anything like DU, I can assure it's not. When all those old labor hands for Gephardt and old-timers for Gephardt see the sons and duaghters of their little town come arrive in droves at the appointed hour and they hear the roar for Dean, believe me it will all be over. The undecided will simply be overwhelmed and want to join the celebration.

The only question in my mind is, will Dean continue through the South, or will Edwards or Clark be able to stop after he wins Iowa and New Hampshire. My bet is being on the covers of the weeklies AGAIN will put him over the top in all but a couple of the Super Tuesday states and it will all be over.

Also look at the consultants. Trippi is the hottest consultant since Carville and Atwater. I talked to Steve McCann today, Trippi's partner, about TV ads, and I believe Kerry's consultants and Gephardt's consultants have almost no chance of beating Trippi and McCann.

When you add it all up, you begin to wonder who Dean will choose for VP?

[polpilot]

21. Bob Graham.

Dean '04...The New Democratic Leader of The NEW Democratic Party.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

22. Do you think he might pick Kerry?

:evilgrin:

[blm]

31. You mean Steve McMahon.

Dean can't survive negative ads that 200 million can buy. He's running as a fighting populist but he has no record as a fighting populist. He has a record of compromising centrism.

If an opponent ran ads showing Dean making conflicting statements about various issues FROM HIS OWN MOUTH, it would be very unsettling when repeated regularly. He's damn lucky that none of the other Dems have done that....YET. But Bush will. And there is plenty out there.

btw...How will an ad of Dean from last night's debate saying for foreign policy he has as much experience as Bush did and that he'll have a staff go over with the people when it's repeated daily, over and over again?