Kerry and Dean Continue to Lead Democrats in New Hampshire

[Freddie Stubbs]

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean continue to lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. Kerry receives support from 25% of likely Democratic primary voters and is followed by Dean at 19%. Congressman Dick Gephardt, at 10%, is the only other potential Democratic candidate to receive double-digit support in the ballot preference.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they always vote or vote in most Democratic primary elections. The interviews were conducted July 21 through 24, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Joe Lieberman has lost five percentage points from the June survey and his current 5% ballot preference matches ballot preference for him in January.

more: http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

[CMT]

1. Good news for both Kerry and Dean

The good news for Kerry is he still is in the lead and is ahead among registered Dems 28-17.

The good news for Dean is that he has cut Kerry's lead by four-points since the last poll in June when Kerry led by ten-points (28-18). Dean went up one-point, while Kerry lost three-points. The other bit of good news is that Independents in NH favor Dean by 25-17 percent. This is significant because some analyst believe the Independent vote will be higher in turnout than the Democratic vote like it was in 2000 when John McCain won the NH primary over Chimpy.

The other bit of good news is for Gep who is in double digits still at 10%. If he can win Iowa can he gain enough momentum with the still high undecideds to take NH from the New England favorite sons? or will the second place showing in Iowa (say if Dean or Kerry come in a solid second to Gep) be the big story going into NH??

The bad news is without a doubt regarding Lieberman. Down to 6% and fading fast in both Iowa and NH.