LIEBERMAN AND KERRY LEADING ARIZONA

[JohnKerryAZ04]

http://www.brcpolls.com/03/RMP2003-III-02.PDF

Joe Lieberman: 17%
John Kerry: 13%
Dick Gephardt: 9%
Howard Dean: 7%

Done between
July14th--> July 18th

[DrFunkenstein]

1. Democrats Already With a Favorite

Democrats With A Favorite

Joe Lieberman 37%
John Kerry 23
Howard Dean 16
Dick Gephardt 10
Bob Graham 9

Dennis Kucinich 2
John Edwards 2
Carol Mosely Braun 2
Al Sharpton 0

But I don't put very much weight into polls. Sharpton could still make a comeback.

[JI7]

2. wasn't kerry born in arizona ?

not sure if that would have any affect though.

[DrFunkenstein]

4. In Denver

"John Kerry, the second of four children, was born on Dec. 11, 1943, in Denver, where his father was briefly hospitalized for tuberculosis, an illness that prevented him from seeing combat."

http://www.boston.com/globe/nation/packages/kerry/061503.shtml

[chimpymustgo]

3. Good day for Kerry in the polls.

It's still early though, very early.

[blm]

5. Especially with Lieberman's name recognition

and Dean getting most of the press the last few months.

By the time Kerry makes his formal announcement in Sept. he'll be in a great position to move in the polls.

[CMT]

7. I would say the same for Dean

The ARG poll in NH actually has Kerry's lead cut from ten-points over Dean in the last poll to six-points. Also this poll of Arizona is good news for both Kerry and Dean--Kerry, well becuz he is second and Dean becuz among likely voters he moves from fourth to third and is only 4-points behind Kerry.

[CMT]

6. here is the key phrase

"...of interest is the finding that among Democrats most likely to participate Howard Dean rises from fourth to third--and indication that he may be catching on with active Democratic voters" Here is the percentages if you only count those most likely to vote:

Lieberman: 19% (up 2-points)
Kerry 12% (down 1-point)
Dean 8% (up 1-point)
Gep 5% (down 4-points)

They also make the point that geographically Dean is challenging Lieberman in Pima County--which I believe is Tucson??

Slowly but surely Dean is making progress in several states.

[writestuff13]

8. shocker

After living in Az. for three years, it comes as no surprise that in a state as conservative as this one, the democrats would be leaning towards the most conservative democratic candidate.

Graham in 2004!