Same question as always...

[Epoch]

Can Dean win?

After reading lots of information on Kerry and Dean I have swung more towards the Dean camp. As a white, middle class, Jewish, college student, environmentalist, I have been more excited by Dean's campaign than any other. That being said, i do not represent a large percentage of America's voting body...or a fraction there of.

So can Dean win a general election. He could win the primary, but where is the proof that he can beat Bush. It is true that he is bringing new people into the fold and swinging some voters to his side. But as Karl Rove, et al, have said Dean might make the easiest candidate since it is perceived that he is not so leftist as he seems. Rove is a smart guy and unless he's playing reverse psychology with us, he recognizes that people will perceive Dean as being too leftist...too risky for many people. We know it's bull, and we know that Dean is more centrist than Kerry, but Kerry comes off as more moderate. He is not nearly as exciting or motivating, but he may present a better shot at winning.

That said, if we're still losing three a day in Iraq and the economy continues to falter, people will get fed up of Bush and Co. even if the Reshrubs try to paint Dean as a pinko-commie leftist hippy (yadda yadda yadda).

What do you all think? Can Dean win a general election? It is obvious he can win the white/educated/upper-middle class vote. Can he carry the rest of the country?

Bush's over all popularity may be down but against someone like Dean he may be considered the better of the two. That wasn't to say that Dean is horrible, but their is a perception of him as being too left wing.

Let me know what you all think. Can Dean win? I hope so and his supporters are growing by 2500 a day on deanforamerica.com Maybe there'll be a million person mark set for primary time. That would be incredible.

Alright, time to go.

Epoch

[dajabr]

1. Excerpt from TNR "Dean Debate"

The authors that wrote the pro & con Dean pieces in this month's TNR critique each other's articles and arguments...

Here's an excerpt that may address your concern:

More important, though, you underestimate the ability of Dean to be different things to different people at the same time, without going through the clunky "reinventions" that doomed Gore. The best politicians can play to different crowds simultaneously; to the extent this would seem duplicitous, they overcome it with sheer charm and magnetism. Bush is terrific at this; so was Bill Clinton. (That's why people still argue over whether he was really a liberal or a centrist.) When you consider the excellent point raised by our colleague Noam Scheiber--that Dean has appealed to liberals largely on rhetoric and tone, not substance--he is in some ways better positioned to perform this sort of political magic than most of his rivals.

You're convinced that Dean will never make it with conservative, rural voters--no matter what his policies. And just as you generously--if partially--conceded one of my points, let me do the same: This is definitely Dean's biggest problem. Although I cited Dean's strong showing among independents in one New Hampshire poll, you very correctly pointed out that the types of independents he's winning in New Hampshire-- predominantly young, white, affluent professionals--represent just one faction within the independent category, one likely to vote Democratic anyway. This is the reason such intelligent people as Ruy Teixeira, who surely knows far more about public opinion than either one of us, think you're mostly right and I'm mostly wrong.

But I'd be careful about reading too much into these early poll numbers, and not only because of the volatile political environment. (Given the way things are going, who's to say that supporting the war in Iraq won't be a major liability in November 2004?) Compared to the other leading candidates, who were well known even before this campaign, Dean's strength in the polls disproportionately reflects his success at communicating with people who care about politics. And since much of this communication has taken place over the Internet, it's quite predictably been with affluent, well-educated people. Blue-collar voters, by contrast, know little about Dean--except, perhaps, the part they like least, namely some caricatured version of his opposition to the war. That will change as the campaign continues and Dean starts communicating, through more conventional means, with people who aren't so consumed with politics right now. And as these people get to know Dean, I think they'll like what they see.

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=express&s=chaitcohn072403

[UrbScotty]

3. Well stated.

Dean will get more "conventional" as the campaign goes on.

[DrFunkenstein]

5. A Couple Troublesome Passages

"I'm not denying Dean has considerable liabilities. I'm saying that he has considerable assets, too, and that when you consider them together, he's got at least as good a chance of beating Bush as his rivals do--perhaps even better."

"I think the race will come down to Dean versus either Gephardt or Kerry, or maybe Edwards, with Dean losing unless he expands his base beyond well-educated liberals."

That's from the PRO-Dean guy!

But I found this passage more troubling:

"You argue, as do Dean and his supporters, that he's not really as liberal as he's made out to be. I concede that's at least partially true. The problem is that Dean comes across as liberal because he puts himself across that way. All of his slogans about representing the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party and being proud to stand up for what Democrats believe convey the notion that he is a true-believing liberal, not a Clinton New Democrat."

When Rove's henchmen describe Dean as too liberal to compete, they are not talking policy. "Liberal" here means something closer to eccentric, that Dean represents the unstable wing of the Democratic party.

Centrism does not mean moderate, if you really mean reasonable. Dean may be a centrist, but his personality is anything but moderate. This may work for him, but I have a feeling the BOTH writers are on to something when they suggest Dean will have real trouble connecting with blue-collar workers (or unemployed).

[blm]

6. The notsofunny thing to me is the big lie

that he fosters. He comes across now like a champion of progressive causes who will fight to achieve progressive goals. But, his style of governing was anything BUT. He refused to fight for even his own stated priorities, preferring instead to compromise with his GOP allies, seeking the center of every issue. The progressive Democrats were kept at arm's length and usually scorned.

When did he become a fighter? After the antiwar movement grew and people were mourning Wellstone and liberal $$$$ were looking for a place to put them. Dean stepped on Kucinich to grab for those dollars and slammed other water-carrying liberals along the way.

[Lefty48197]

2. Yes, Dean can win the general election

No link, just a gut feeling.

[dfong63]

4. so you believe Rove???

But as Karl Rove, et al, have said Dean might make the easiest candidate since it is perceived that he is not so leftist as he seems. Rove is a smart guy and unless he's playing reverse psychology with us,

puhleese. Rove is not exactly on our side, nor is he even an objective observer. Rove is a partisan hack. make that, an unscrupulous lying partisan hack. what makes anyone think he's suddenly gone into the business of giving helpful or trustworthy advice to the opposition?