House Pickups

[mndemocrat_29]

Which House Races do you think Democrats will have the best shot of picking up?

My guesses

Arizona-1
Connecticut-2
Georgia-11
Georgia-12
Indiana-8
New Mexico-2
North Carolina-8

And if there's any way possibly, could we beat Barbara Cubin in Wyoming or Bill Thomas in California? There two of Repukes I despise the most.

[CarlBallard]

1. We may lose Washington-1

If Inslee runs for Governor.That's the only down side to it because he would make the best candidate. Sorry to be such a downer.

[mndemocrat_29]

2. What about the other open seats?

I know Hoeffel's would be difficult, and that Deutsch's and Hastings's are going to be fairly simple. Do we have any other open seats at this time?

[ButterflyBlood]

5. Hoeffel's shouldn't be too hard

it's at least Dem-leaning.

[goobergunch]

31. PA-13 is a toss-up...

it was hard for even Hoeffel to hold. It won't be easy, but then it won't be easy for the Repukes either.

[jos]

35. This is not the PA-13 of the 90s

After redistricting, northeast Philadelphia was put in the district. While that section is by no means solidly Democratic, it is more Democratic than many parts of Montgomery County. What hurt Hoeffel in the district last time was his support of section 8 housing.

[jiacinto]

41. NE Philadelphia votes Democratic usually

Yeah that issue almost killed him. NE Philadelphia is more Democratic than Republican, but it will vote GOP if it finds the Democrats to be too soft on crime or too liberal. The few Republican state reps and city councilman come from that part of the city.

The area supported Republicans in the 1980s for president, although it has sent Democrats to Congress except for a brief 1978-1982 tenure of Charles Dougherty.

[goobergunch]

61. Is that where the PA House Speaker comes from?

His name slips my mind, but I know he's from Philly.

PA-6, PA-13, PA Senate, and WH all competitive in the Philly TV market though...should be fun ad-watching in 2004!

[jiacinto]

62. His name is Perzel

And his district is in NE Philadelphia.

[goobergunch]

32. Gore won WA-1 52.8%-42.4%

We should be able to win any open seat that Gore won.

http://www.ncec.org/redistricting/district.phtml?district=wa108

[valphoosier]

3. Indiana

I think that Indiana 8 is a definite possibility... maybe even a better than 50% chance. Indiana 2 is another possibility (Jill Long Thompson ran about the worst campaign imaginable last time).

As for Cubin in Wyoming... no way.... and probably the same for Bill Thomas. Sad realities....

[mndemocrat_29]

4. I wish there were a way

I mean look at the list of hard right conservatives who just hinder the entire House:

Barbara Cubin
Bill Thomas
Tom DeLay
Denny Hastert
Roy Blunt
Peter King
Jim Sensenbrenner

There must be someone who could try and take one of these people down.

[eyesroll]

21. See my other post re: Sensenbrenner

My husband's going to try and take him out!

[ButterflyBlood]

6. CO-7 and IA-2

also Toomey's seat in PA is winnable. As far as Dem seats being vacated Gephardt is definately not running for reelection but his should be easily retained, I don't know of any others.

[mndemocrat_29]

7. Gephardt

Completely forgot about him. I think Russ Carnahan will take his seat and possibly run for governor some day.

[goobergunch]

33. CO-7 depends on the redistricting challenge

It will be a lot harder to win CO-7 if the Repuke districting plan is upheld.

[goobergunch]

34. IA-2 (Nussle) is harder than IA-1 (Leach) IMHO (n/t)

[ButterflyBlood]

48. you got them mixed up

Leach is 2, Nussle is 1

[goobergunch]

52. my bad

That's how it was before re-apportionment...I'm used to thinking about it that way because I'm still using the old Almanac of American Politics.

[jiacinto]

8. PA-6

That's another key race to watch.

[goobergunch]

22. My district...

we only lost by 5 thousand votes even though the DNC ran no ads until about two weeks before the election. We can win this seat.

[displacedyankeedem]

9. Possibles

KY-3 which is Anne Northup's district could be picked up. When I lived in Pittsburgh, PA-4(my district) was held by a Democrat, has it been redistricted out of reach for that moron Hart? Can someone please explain how Phil Crane survives in his Suburban Chicago IL-8(used to be Rummy's seat) district; which seems to me would have some heavy Democratic component(or am I completely wrong???).

[NewJerseyDem]

11. Crane is on ways and means

He should be chairman if it wasn't for the Republicans skipping over him and putting Thomas in as Chairman. Crane may still be chairman if Thomas is fired by Hastert or if he is still around when Thomas is term limited out as chairman in 2006.

[jiacinto]

15. That seat is heavily Republican

I think IL-10 is more winnable.

[ButterflyBlood]

17. Mark Kirk won with 69% in IL-10 last year

not likely, although if the Texas plan goes through Illinois should be gerrymandered in retribution, the same lame argument the GOP in Texas is using could be said for Illinois, where Gore won by more than 12 points but Republicans have a majority in the House delegation.

[jiacinto]

25. The seat, when it becomes open,

should be more competetive.

[NewJerseyDem]

29. Will it become open?

Kirk is pretty young and I would doubt he would leave the House anytime soon. He has been mentioned in the Senate race but I doubt it. It looks like he will hold it for a while.

[NewJerseyDem]

10. A few others

New Mexico-1 is also a possiblity. It would be nice to pick up both New Mexico seats and hold all 3 districts there.

Alabama-3 Mike Rogers got 50.3% in 2002.

Kentucky-3 Northup is always a possibility.

West Virginia-2 Capito might run for governor so this will be an open seat. Even though she got 60% last time I don't know if that is just because she was an incumbent.

I continue to say that if the proper resources are put into NJ-5 and NJ-7 there is a hope of picking up those two. But, I guess I'm probably too optimistic here in NJ.

[UrbScotty]

12. You're right about most of them.

As for Capito, I heard she won't run for Governor. Nonetheless, we can still beat her.

[ButterflyBlood]

16. I heard Capito only won because she was facing the same horrible opponent

both times. Even though Jennifer Dunn has confirmed she won't run for senator, if she runs for governor (which she has a far better shot at) we could easily pick up WA-8. We might also have a shot at SD-AL riding on Daschle's coattails, it only was won with 53% against a political novice.

[UrbScotty]

13. A lot of these seats can be won on coattails.

If we have a heck of a Presidential nominee, and we have a year like we had in 1986 or like the Republicans had in 1980 or 1994, I think many of the seats mentioned by you and other posters (i.e. WV-2 or PA-6) - indeed, all of them - should be won.

We know how Bush's lies are adding up. Bush is turning into his father. Or Jimmy Carter, or Herbert Hoover. Bush is slowly undoing himself.

[Ediacara]

14. Don't forget Montana-AL

Denny Rehberg only won by 51% in 2000, and in 2002 won against a no-name candidate that the party didn't really support. I suspect that 2004, with a presidential race, and a definately-going-to-be-interesting governor's race, the state party will put a first tier candidate against Denny. That candidate may come in on coattails too, but this race will be one to watch.

[LewisJackson]

18. Perhaps not winnable, but

MN-6.

My reasoning is like this: Mark Kennedy is the current Congressman there, and there are plans of the state GOP to have him run for Senate in 2006 against Dayton. Frankly, I think we should start showing people how much of a Bush lapdog Kennedy is now, simply to make the defeat he's going to suffer in 2006 that much more of a drubbing.

Also, I think a moderate Dem could pull off MN-2 against Kline. Luther was slaughtered because he did a lot of stupid things, denouncing Kline at every turn, even where not necessary, and at some points, idiotically. It's a district that I think we could pull off, even though it does lean-GOP.

[mndemocrat_29]

19. Minnesota

Minnesota-I think that we have a really good shot of picking up two House seats in Minnesota, if we have the right candidates and we have a decent presidential candidate (it always comes back to that). State Sen. John Hottinger could run against Gil Gutknecht. Gutknecht often gets mentioned for higher office, so elmininating him could defeat a chance of him running for senator or governor some day. Pawlenty's horrificly unpopular here, so an anti-Pawlenty wave could occur.

The other seat is Rep. John Kline's. Bill Luther ran a bad campaign last time around with little support from national Democrats. I think that if State Sen. Steve Murphy runs, he could win.

Lastly, where does everyone find how Gore and Bush did in each of these districts? I can't find that out anywhere.

[ButterflyBlood]

27. check out this link

http://www.ncec.org/redistricting/latest.phtml

It was Bush 50/Gore 45.5 in Gutknecht's, and Gore Bush 51.1/Bush 44.5 in Kline's. Of course the Nader vote is relatively large and could be added in making it much more close.

Hottinger is my state senator, and I sincerely hope he one day tries to knock off Gutknect. So far he's only won reelection in this district by the skin of his teeth (as it consists of my very liberal city as one half and a very conservative rural area as the other, so it's about 50/50), so he can win a swing district.

[NewJerseyDem]

30. Gutknecht will be hard

I would think that after this victory on drug reimportation it will be extremely hard to knock of Gil Gutknecht.

[FuriousMNDem]

60. Gosh, I hope we beat Kline!

That guy represents my district. :puke:

[eyesroll]

20. WI-5?

My husband's running for the seat (currently being held by F. James Sensenbrenner).

OK, so he's running against a popular, well-financed incumbent. And he has to survive a contested primary first. And nobody's ever heard of him. It's a long shot. But stranger things have happened, right?

(I will post a press release -- one that doesn't use the words "stranger things have happened" -- and Web address in P&C once we have them up and running.)

[mastein]

23. VA House races

Anyone know if anyone has even filed on the Democratic side to face off against Frank Wolf (R)? In '02 he had some guy run against him who didn't even put up roadside signs.

[jiacinto]

26. That seat is safely Republican

The suburban and rural communities that make up the tenth are solidly Republican.



The tenth went 55-40 in favor of Bush. Not as Republican as it used to be, but still safely with the GOP.

[JohnKerryAZ04]

24. Arizona is not a shoe in

There are already 8 candidates inching towards deciding to run in that race; and if its like that again, George Cordova may well again win the primary and lose the general.

[mndemocrat_29]

28. Steve Udall

We need Steve Udall if we're going to have a chance.

[jos]

36. Yes

Would have won the seat last time if Udall was the candidate.

[mndemocrat_29]

37. Possible Pickups

I just finished punching some numbers and I was wondering why these districts (all of which, if you combine Gore's and Nader's votes were won by more than 55% for the Democrats) aren't safely in the blue column?

CT-2
NY-27
NJ-2
CO-7
CT-4
CT-5
NJ-3
IA-2
GA-12
NY-3
NY-13

Does anyone know anything about these districts that could tell why we can't pick them up? Will we have a chance at any in 2004 (I know we'll have a great shot at GA-12)

[jos]

38. Foregt NJ 2 and NJ 3

Both LoBiando and Saxton won with over 65% of the vote, and they are well-entrenched incumbents.

[NewJerseyDem]

40. Yeah

Those two are definitely going to win reelection. They are both moderates and have been around for a while.

However, NJ-5 and NJ-7 are better even though they narrowly voted for Bush they have had closer elections because their congressmen are newer.

In NJ-5 Scott Garrett is a freshman and won his first term with 60% of the vote. However, he is extremely conservative. His first vote in Congress was to vote no on unemployment benefits being extended. He voted with Ron Paul, Jeff Flake and one other republican. That could definitely be used in the campaign. Also, the democrats need a good candidate and not some novice who tried to use the sniper shootings for political advantage like last time.

In NJ-7 Mike Ferguson is a two term congressman who won in 2002 with 58%. He too was up against a political novice. Ferguson is more moderate on things like the environment but is still one of the more conservative congressmen in NJ. He could be taken out if someone with some political experience like a state legislator ran.

[ButterflyBlood]

45. Garett's seat is pretty solidly Republican

a serious candidate could probably give him a serious challenge but pulling a McKinney on reverse on him is probably the best way to get rid of him if a Democrat can't beat him.

[NewJerseyDem]

49. It went slightly to Bush

I think it was something like 51% to 45% for Bush. So, it does lean Republican. But, I think that there are a lot of moderates in this district in Bergen County. It has some wealthy suburbs with fiscal conservatives and social liberals while other parts are really conservative. I just think many will be repulsed by how right wing Garrett is.

I don't think a primary will work. In 1998 and 2000 he ran in the primary against longtime moderate incumbent Marge Roukema. He fell just barely short in 2000 losing 51-49. So, I doubt that a moderate could knock him off.

Also, there aren't many good candidates in the area because almost all the state legislators up there are republicans so few democrats have much political experience.

Anne Sumers ran an awful campaign in 2002. She ran ads about the sniper shooting and critisized his pro-gun stance. That got a ton of bad media attention accross the country and doomed her campaign just like Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in Maryland.

[ButterflyBlood]

46. those are mostly districts full of moderate Republicans

The exact opposite of southern Democrats. They'll vote Democrat for president, but Republican for everything else as the Republicans in their states are relatively moderate. Most of those NJ seats are held by moderate Republicans and hopeless, same for NY-27, NY-3 and NY-13 are held by fairly conservative Republicans (despite Peter King's opposition to the Clinton impeachment), but aren't beatable, although possible pick ups if they ever leave. CT-2 might be winnable, there's an outside chance in CT-5, CT-4 is hopeless, it's heavily Republican (socially liberal Republicans but Republicans nonetheless). IA-2 is very winnable though, that district is mostly Democratic unlike the rest.

[mndemocrat_29]

50. Julie Thomas

Should we run Julie Thomas again in Iowa-2? I know she came close, but would having her in a presidential year pay off? Also, who can we run that will win in Connecticut 2?

[mastein]

63. Julie Thomas/IA-2

I lived in what is now IA-2 for almost 8 years. I would hope the IA Dem. party would put their resources behind knocking off that loud mouth in IA-1 instead of going after a guy that has voted with us on a number of issues, and unlike the guy in IA-1 is a reasonable person.

In redistricting this year IA-1 took a piece of IA-2, and the piece they got runs through some of the most Democratic areas in the state, including bigger chuncks of the major cities where more Dems. live.

The Dems have a very good shot at winning the seat, if they can use Nussle's own words against him, and run someone (ANYONE) else besides Dave Nagle against him.

[ButterflyBlood]

64. Because Leach is way more vulnerable

but you're right, I would much rather have Nussle gone, since Leach is probably the most moderate Republican in the House now that Morella's gone.

[goobergunch]

53. IMHO the only reason Leach won...

is he voted AGAINST the war.

[ButterflyBlood]

54. yep

so that means that more people were saved by voting against the war, than lost because they vote against the war. The only person in either house who voted against the war who lost was Maloney in CT who was redistricted against another incumbent in a district that favored her.

[NewJerseyDem]

57. No

Connie Morella voted against the war and she lost to Chris Van Hollen.
So, I'm not so sure that the idea that just because anyone voted against the war is why they won. Leach has won a lot in the past. I think he has won though because he is perhaps the most moderate Republican in the House of Representatives.

[ButterflyBlood]

58. oh forgot about that

however it's pretty obvious she didn't lose because of her vote.

[goobergunch]

59. Iowa is a very dovish state (n/t)

[revcarol]

39. Can anyone send money to help get out R-Pearce- NM?2nd district.

He outspent the challenger 2 to 1.It would only take about $2MILLION, cheap for a House seat.Not suggesting we "buy" it but no TV available except in El Paso and Albuquerque markets, so it costs a lot more money.
This guy is new, in his "first term," and has managed to upset a lot of people.Definitely this seat is in play, if the financing is available.

[goobergunch]

43. Can't donate under BCRA (n/t)

[goobergunch]

42. OH-16...AWD! (hopefully, anyway) (n/t)

[Aaron]

44. I wish Oregon 2 would go Dem'

Then we'd have the whole state.

But it's not a good Dem' district.

Maybe with some more Hispanic immigration it'd be an easier district.

http://www.ncec.org/redistricting/district.phtml?district=or108

[ButterflyBlood]

47. I hear that's the wingnut part of the state

it's like Idaho. Overall pretty hopeless.

[Aaron]

51. Yep. 60/40 isn't horrible though so maybe we'll get it someday (n/t)

[mndemocrat_29]

55. Bob Matsui Sites Top Targets in Ad Blitz

Here is the article:

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49137-2003Jul12.html>

[jos]

56. Charlie Bass

Every two years they take a run at him, and every two years he wins, usually be a comfortable margin. They should give up already. There are better targets.

[ButterflyBlood]

65. we can pick up that seat when he leaves

but until then it's hopeless