Dean Holds Lead Among Democrats in New Hampshire

[dajabr]

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean continues to hold his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean leads with 29% to 19% for Senator John Kerry. Dean and Kerry continue to be the only two candidates to receive double-digit support. When it comes to candidate favorability, 63% of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Dean and 63% have a favorable opinion of Kerry.

More: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

[clar]

1. I'm surprised

I expected Kerry to make some gains this month. I think this is very bad news for the Kerry campaign. It appears as if Dean's support is not nearly as soft as many have claimed.

[mmonk]

13. Dean has held up well

we're looking for momentum. A late entrance puts us behind particularly in these two states where organizations have been camped out for awhile.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. it's all a matter of getting your people to the polls

the one that counts in January. That's where we'll see who's "soft" or not.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

Just over 3 months to go. Kerry needs to get that number within 5% for him to have a chance. New Hampshire is critical for Kerry. Iowa is critical for Geppy. SC is critical for Edwards. Right now, the only one doing their job is Edwards.

[Cha]

2. Hi dajabr! All this Good Hard Work is paying off!

It feels good for our campaign to be doing so well and Jim McDermott is on Board! That to me was Large! Cause I am such a Huge fan of his!

:hi:

[dajabr]

3. Hey zidzi!

Good news indeed! Have fun watching the debate tonight - should be a good one.

:hi:

[Cha]

6. I won't be "watching" but will be on Board for up to minute

Play by Plays! Good Luck to Dean and all the candidates!

I wish they good get an impartial moderator if not a Good Dem!

[RogueTrooper]

4. Excellent news

It seems that neither Clark entering the race, or Kerry's campaigning have done any damage to Dean's polling numbers.

[mmonk]

5. Caution

We haven't heard from the heartland yet, just a caucus state and a New England state.

[Larkspur]

But Iowa and New Hampshire

are the 2 big tests for Dems and the winner will have momentum with free press for the winner leading into Super Tuesday.

[dajabr]

11. Laskspur, don't you know that only National Polls matter?

Just ask Lieberman...

:eyes:

[dajabr]

8. Seems to have drawn a little from everyone in the "top tier"...

Congratulations, by the way, to the Clark camp for more than doubling your numbers from the last poll.

Now, let's see if Gep's attacks have helped him in Iowa...

[cindyw]

15. Dean did have a 21 point lead, so this good news for Kerry

So I would say that the truth is Clark has not been in long enough for NH voters and Kerry has cut Dean's lead in half and his holding on to those gains. Long three months ahead.

:kick:

[dajabr]

20. At what point did Dean have a 21 point lead?

Which month?

I do see that Kerry was leading by 6 points three months ago.

[Larkspur]

23. That was the Zogby poll no the ARG poll

ARG had Dean with a 10-12 pt margin in September. Zogby had Dean with a 21 pt lead last month.

[helleborient]

27. Kerry supporters trumpeted...

The reduction from 21 point lead to 10 last month...and said the Kerry surge was on. Unfortunately for Kerry the surge died between September and now...he hasn't gained any more ground. Dean is holding firm - not good news for Kerry no matter how it's spun.

[Larkspur]

7. The only ones that rose were Undecides and Clark

but Clark did not make a noticable impression on NH voters. He's at 5%.

Dean held his ground after tough attacks from Gephardt and Kerry and there is lots of room in the Undecides for Dean to take or retake.

I'm planning on canvassing for Dean in Nov, Dec, and Jan '04.

[RogueTrooper]

9. Good Work Larkspur

:yourock:

[Cha]

16. Thank you! Larkspur! You are such a go getter and ya

do :yourock: !

[helleborient]

28. My wife and I are planning on heading to Iowa...

In January - BRRRRRRRRR

Good luck in NH, Larkspur!

[RevolutionStartsNow]

10. Holding strong!

If any of you Texas Rangers are reading this, thanks! I know your hard work paid off.

[Fabio]

12. It's been remarkably consistent

at 10 points after the August burst for Dean. Kudos to him for maintaining it.

As a JK supporter, I feel good about that margin. The structural changes in the campaign (including the addition of Gov. Shaheen) haven't really gotten that much time to settle.

The reality is that JK hasn't been doing much in NH for a month (and I dont think that HD has either). It'll be a challenge for sure but JK is a fighter.

[Cha]

17. Thank you! You do your candidate proud!

:toast:

[KaraokeKarlton]

22. You really shouldn't count on Jean Shaheen helping much

Her endorsement is nice and all, but it's very unlikely it's going to have any real impact. If she had of endorsed him earlier it might have helped some, but this late, it's just not going to do much. There has been campaigning going on pretty hard core in NH for quite some time and a lot of people have already made up their mind. On top of that, Shaheen lost a race she should have easily won in 2002. She had been elected governor twice and then lost for a spot in Washington. Governors are better known in states than the Reps to Washington. That race was hers to lose, which she did. She was also liked alright in the state, but she isn't really that popular.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

26. 29% undecided --

You may be thinking it's 'later' than it really is...

[DJcairo]

30. It's not "late" give me a break

With 3 and 1/2 months to go I would dispute your notion that Shaheen can't help much "this late." She is The Most Popular Democrat in NH. Okay. Get it through your head. I understnad Dean supporters are jealous. Also, in case you didn't see the latest ARG poll, it shows that %29 are still undecided. That is equal to the number of people that support Dean. With that many undecided, someone like Shaheen offering her support of Kerry becomes a big deal. Once her real role in the campaign becomes clear you are going to start seeing a real surge by Kerry in NH.

[helleborient]

31. Jealous of what?

Take Shaheen...we've got Jim McDermott and Margaret Cho!! And a lead in Kerry's neighboring state!

It's great to see a candidate who raises his money from individual contributions leading a candidate who puts multiple millions of his own money into the race.

[Fabio]

37. When did John Kerry put his own $ into the race?

[helleborient]

42. Last spring...

I'll look for the link for you.

[helleborient]

45. Mea culpa...he transferred his Senate campaign money...

From when he basically faced no opposition but raised a lot of money anyway.

No other candidate has had that benefit, I believe.

[Fabio]

48. N/P...but for the record we are in agreement

that he didnt.(?)

As for the transfer, John Edwards will be doing the same shortly, now that he has left behind his Senate ambitions for 04.

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[CMT]

14. I'm pleased that his lead is holding

but we must not let up. Still a long way to go until Feb. Still a lot of undecideds. Encouraging though that even with Gen. Clark entering that both Dean and Kerry are holding their support. This poll is somewhat different from other NH polls taken after Clark got in showing the General with roughly 10% support in NH and a solid third, In this poll he is tied with Lieberman for fourth place with 5% and behind third place Gep who has 6%. Still as I say, lots of time for everyone to gain support.

[Cha]

18. Not Even "let up"...in fact Get Stronger!

And go forth and multiply! :toast:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

21. All changes since September within the margin of error of ± 4%

This poll makes it look like a three way race between Dean, Kerry, and Undecided.

With a ± 4 percentage point margin of error:

Dean lost 3 points.

Kerry lost 3 points.

Undecided gained 2 points.

[helleborient]

29. But we stopped the Kerry surge AND maintaned our lead...

Yay!!!

[LuminousX]

33. I'm cautiously optimistic

December/January will be the true test, when the campaigns flood New Hampshire with supporters and the contest gets personal. I remember it was in New Hampshire I lost respect of Gore because he did the right thing and kneecapped Bradley. He had to do it. It is hit or be hit when it comes down to crunchtime. I just wish it was my guy who had laid the critical hit.

It'll be the same way for Dean. I'm going to want him to make the critical hits, but by doing so he is going to lose people's respect. That is the nature of presidential politics though.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

38. The long term trend

is a surge by Dean that appears to have run out of steam. Since the last poll there have been no changes beyond the margin of error of the poll.

The only candidates that gained since the last poll are Lieberman, to a whopping 6%, Edwards, to an impressive 3%, Clark, to a commanding 5%, and the real opponent for both Dean and Kerry, Undecided, up to an (no sarcasm this time) impressive 29%. Chances are a large number of those undecideds will be staying undecided for a long time. That's why NH has historically been such a nail-biter.

[helleborient]

44. Dean doesn't necessarily need to gain from here to win...

The undecided could split 20% for Clark and 9% for Kerry and Dean still wins. Kerry has much much more work to do than that.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

40. Strange- a Dean supporter touts a 'Kerry surge' that Dean 'stopped'

Margin of Error: ± 4%

Kerry:

July: 25%
August: 21%
Sept: 21%
Oct: 19%


Dean:

July: 19%
August: 28%
Sept: 31%
Oct: 29%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/



If anyone's 'surge' has been stopped, it's Dean's.
His numbers were going up, but not anymore.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

41. Did you notice that someone else's numbers aren't going up either?

Thought I'd point it out.

[helleborient]

43. I think there was a frequently posting Kerry supporter here...

That trumpeted the surge from Kerry's campaign announcement...and there was one...then talked about how much work was being done and the surge would continue.

The surge did not continue...Dean has held steady, and both lost equal amounts (2% well within margin of error) in the last month.

Where is Kerry's boost from running a great campaign?

29% could be enough to win...19% most certainly is not.

Dean's 4-month trend is +10 points, Kerry's is -6 - surge ended, Howard Dean holding steady as the leader!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

46. don't put someone else's words in my mouth.

I'm talking about this poll. Which clearly shows a large increase in support for Dean between July and August, without any big movement since then. In fact, all the month-to-month differences since then have been within the margin of error.

The most important result this poll shows is the solid support for 'Undecided' over 4 months. Because guess what:

UNDECIDED = ANYONE BUT BUSH

(imho)

And that's good news for all of us.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

25. Clark at 5%.

By the time that the Clark supporters realize that national polls have no meaning, he'll have been marginalized.

[mmonk]

32. We'll see won't we?

I'm sure someone in New York or South Carolina, etc. will decide who to vote for vote by who wins New Hampshire:eyes:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

34. "Yes. We will."

The people of New York and South Carolina have yet to lay eyes on Clark... why would you put so much hope in their opinion?

[dajabr]

35. Yes...

No chance that someone in NY or SC would be influenced by the deluge of wall to wall free media coverage that the winner of IA and NH would get... :eyes:

[beyurslf]

39. What other candidate

can say they are leading or in a tight race for first in NH, IA, CA, SC?
Yes Kerry could squeeze out a win in NH. Gephardt may get lucky in IA. Edwards could pull an upset in SC.

But what is the likelyhood of all three happening?

Anyone else headed to Iowa to work weekends? Headed there from KS soon to work through the winter.

[killbotfactory]

47. Dean, Dean, Dean, Dean...

Dean-o-Rama!