Has anyone analysed the race and gender turnout in CA?

[lazarus]

I just heard Bill Press say the hispanic turnout was under 30%, and the black turnout was 6%.

!

If this is true, I think the fact that 90% of the polling places in LA were shut down may have had something to do with it.

[radwriter0555]

1. YES, here, I was just getting ready to post it....

It's all about who voted, and who didn't.
Those who voted yesterday were much more likely to be white, Republican, and well-off financially than California voters generally, according to more than 4,000 exit interviews conducted by CNN.

"Poor people, minorities, and people with little or no education -- arguably the portion of the electorate with the most to win or gain -- stayed home," CNN reported.

Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state, 44 percent to 35 percent. But among those who voted yesterday, Republicans outnumbered Democrats, 39 percent to 38 percent.

According to the 2000 census, whites comprise 59.5 percent of California's population. But 70 percent of yesterday's voters were white, according to CNN.

According to the census, people of Hispanic or Latino origins make up 32.4 percent of the population. But only 18 percent of yesterday's voters were Hispanic or Latino, according to CNN.
According to the census, Asians make up 10.9 percent of the population. But only 3 percent of yesterday's voters were Asian, according to CNN.

According to the census, African-Americans make up 6.7 percent of the population. Six percent of yesterday's voters were African-American, according to CNN.

Almost one-fourth of those who voted yesterday said their family income is over $100,000 per year. But according to the census bureau, only 20 percent of California families had a median family income of $100,000 more, as of 1999.

References:

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/10/08/recall.results/
http://factfinder.census.gov/bf/_lang=en_vt_name=DEC_2000_SF3_U_DP3_geo_id=04000US06.html

[Cha]

2. Why oh Why couldn't Bustamonte get out he Hispanic vote and

all the other voters who were not inspired?

[blackcat77]

4. Because Bustamante was a special interest politician

...just like Davis. People simply never felt connected to either of them.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. It goes beyind that

If I am correct in my gut feeling the people behind the
recall have just unleashed very powerful forces in the US...
a whirlwind if you will, that will affect the chimp in charge.

So all is not lost.

Oh and the Democratic Party shares some of the blame.. Terry needs
to go, NOW

[meisje]

6. I guess it had nothing to do with the fact that

Davis was a terrible leader and the dems smut slam at the end! Backlash is what happened!

[Bucky]

11. smut slam? R U a Freeper?

Are you a lurking Freeper? What smut slam? The sexual misconduct allegations against Schwarzeneggar are valid character questions--as I'm sure a quick research on quotes from Ken Starr, Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson, Rush Limbaugh, and Henry "the Homewrecker" Hyde will bear out.

The fact that 11 women stepped forward and said they'd been assaulted (in the legal sense, not in the commune usage sense) by Ape-Who-Walks, and the fact that he may have been a Hitler admirer (tho certainly not a Nazi) in years past, and the fact that he tooled around with Enron execs to support the plundering of his state, are all valid questions sufficiently documented to warrant talking about just what sort of man he is.

[Qutzupalotl]

12. Um...those women came forward on their own.

The Democrats had nothing to do with it. If anyone was slinging smut, it was Arnold.

[lazarus]

8. Do you suppose

That the "consolidated" voting districts had anything to do with the lower minority and poor turnout?

[blackcat77]

3. Fox has very complete statistics

Link available on their front page

[DJcairo]

7. Repukes have a habit of doing better in turnout in off year elections

Especially in an election driven by Repuke anger at Davis. By the way, 55%-45% on question 1 is not so bad for a guy who has 24-28% approval in a heavily democratic state. Arnold only did a couple points better than No on the recall.

Recall the recall!!Fight fire with fire!!!
ahhhhhhh!!

[boneygrey]

9. Am I the only one bothered

by the fact that the pukes got 61% of the overall vote if you consider McClintock's showing?

[Qutzupalotl]

13. Davis got 45%

which is not bad, considering.

[Bucky]

14. Dems had two lame candidates

It bothers me, yes, that 3/5s of "Cally-foarnee-yuns" (as their new guv calls em) voted for GOP candidates. But I'm mostly bothered because that means that the Democrats in our largest anchor state are bereft of strong electoral contenders. It also confirms the fact, which I find rather reassuring, that Americans in general vote for candidates rather than for political parties.

California is aboout 37% registered Pub and 45% registered Dem. Schwarzeneggar clearly had strong cross-over appeal. Figure that about 40% of the turnout was registered GOP. Most of McClintock's 13% came from there. That means that the Smirking Gorilla's 49% was probably about 26% GOP and 23% crossover from independents and Dems.

They won fair (if not totally square) and deserve to be congratulated on a well run campaign. They also deserve to be vigorously opposed at every turn. I don't expect CA's veteran pols to take any firm stands against the Grope too soon.

[GOPBasher]

15. You're not the only one.

I've been saying this for the past 24 hours. I'm so scared that Repukes did so well in this supposedly heavily Dem state. I understand the turnout favored them, but still, here's my question: Did Arnold bring a lot of new voters into the fold. It seems like he did. And will all those new voters be Republicans just because their here is.

[gasperc]

16. Not at all, Davis got more votes than in 2002

Swarz. votes did come from independents and democrats without a doubt, but tons were furious with Davis, he was barely polling 30% approval. Almost 300,000 that voted on question 1, ignored #2 and almost 500,000 voters ignored the top three candidates. Clearly alot of ind. and dems picked Swarz but if it was because the liked him or so hated Davis and Bust. they didn't care. I think it's the latter. Given another week Davis may have been able to shift the 450,000 votes necessary over. However, Davis didn't have an ephiphany during the 7 week recall and seemed tone deaf to the fury of the democrats and independents angry about the state of the state.
As a hard core Dem, I think it sucks big time that we lost this but we have to understand and make absolutely fucking sure it doesn't happen next year against Bush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Swarz. 3,743,393
Busta. 2,432,446
McClin. 1,026,481


all votes total 7,697,784
other votes except SW,Buz, Mcl 495,464

Recall 2002
Yes 4,415,341 Gray Davis 3,469,025 47.4
No 3,559,400 Bill Simon 3,105,477 42.4
total 7,974,741

[beyurslf]

10. Davis was a terrible

Politician. The Bill he signed a couple of weeks ago to give undocumented aliens the right to a DL smacked of pandering. He had not once but TWICE vetoed this same bill. People aren't stupid.

Bustamante did nothing for me when I watched the debate. And listening to him on the Sunday morning before the election with Wolf Blitzer I was even less impressed. No wonder Arnold won.

I am amashed one of the most Democratic states in the country could only produce two of the sorriest Dems I have seen to run.