Second-tier candidates changing strategies to keep campaigns alive

[Nicholas_J]

Howard Dean's fund-raising success and Wesley Clark's momentum is forcing some Democratic presidential rivals to make a tough choice: Overhaul their strategies or face defeat.

They're choosing to change course rather than get out -- at least for now...

* Kerry, the Massachusetts senator who cast himself as the early front-runner, has been frustrated by attention lavished on Dean and Clark. He is second to Dean in fund-raising. Public polls show him trailing Dean in New Hampshire, a state Kerry must win, but a Democratic strategist not tied to either campaign said he's seen private surveys with Kerry inching ahead.

The strategist spoke on condition of anonymity, as did several other Democrats who assessed the candidates.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/09/30/national0143EDT0419.DTL

[VermontDem2004]

1. I guess private surveys

are more accurate to what is going to happen then public polls, good for Kerry. :thumbsup:

[quinnox]

2. Indeed, if this turns out to be accurate

It would be quite a turnaround. Kerry actually pulling ahead of Dean already? If a poll comes out to confirm this, what a shocker. Though if this is the case I'm sure there will be a few Deanies who will explain how this really isn't true, or that this is somehow good for Dean.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. I don't read it as

'pulling ahead of Dean'.

Public polls show him trailing Dean in New Hampshire, a state Kerry must win, but a Democratic strategist not tied to either campaign said he's seen private surveys with Kerry inching ahead.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/09/30/national0143EDT0419.DTL

'inching ahead' in this context could just mean he is closing the gap. Time will tell...

[quinnox]

5. True

I may have misread that. Still, I bet if a poll comes out showing Kerry making up even more ground, as he has done already moving from 21 points down to 10, there will be a few Deanies who will say the opposite of what this indicates, namely Kerry surging and Dean struggling.

[LuminousX]

10. Baseless

And I can find a few Kerry supporters who will think Kerry retaking the lead is a sign that Dean needs to shut down his campaign completely. Just because 'a few Deanies' have their heads up their asses doesn't mean anything. You are making an accusations based on hypotheticals.

[genius]

4. The main problem is the news media

They want the most right wing Democrat they can find winning the nomination and, if you want to know whose right wing, follow the publicity. Ruppert Murdock (FOX) suggested burning the ballots. NBC is owned by G.E., which makes money from war munitions. ABC cancelled Bill Maher because he told the truth.

If you look see whose currently getting on the news and talk shows, you'll know who best represents the views of the right wing in this country.

As for the candiates who represent most of the people, they will have to fight to be heard.

[BushGone04]

8. Which candidates are you referring to?

If you're referring to Dean as a candidate who stands for most of the people but hasn't gotten publicity, I don't think you really have a leg to stand on. The man was on the covers of all three major news magazines in the same week, and I think it'd be fair to say he's had more media coverage than any other candidate, simply because he's been such a surprise.

If you're referring to Kucinich or another lesser-known candidate who has been getting very little press, then you're exactly right.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. Fournier seems to have totally written off

Moseley Braun, Kucinich and Sharpton.

As far as Edwards,

Meanwhile, he has begun to criticize Dean, Clark, Gephardt and other rivals as part of what advisers insist is a long-held strategy: Introduce Edwards to voters in the summer and early fall, then distinguish himself from the pack in the late fall and winter.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/09/30/national0143EDT0419.DTL

"Introduce Edwards to voters in the summer and early fall"? Remind me not to hire anyone on that campaign as a matchmaker -- I don't think many voters have been introduced...

Lieberman -- name recognition only goes so far. An Arizona, Delaware, Oklahoma and South Carolina strategy? He's wasting his and our time.

Graham -- "Some supporters and advisers say privately his campaign is doomed" -- still I don't blame him for not giving up yet. But if they are going-for-broke in Iowa he probably will drop out if he doesn't do well there.

[DemDogs]

7. Edwards gaining ground in every state

And leading in South Carolina, the third primary. In this field, only a couple of candidates can boast that they are increasing support everywhere. Edwards is on a great track and running a classy campaign, in addition to being the most talented candidate running. His campaign, his ideas, and his campaign skills, combined with his growing support are the reason Fournier (who knows a lot more than you or I) believes he is a serious player in this race. He is not going away.

[stickdog]

9. Kerry leads second-tier candidates.

[LuminousX]

11. I strongly question how this article classifies '2nd Tier'

Kerry is not a 2nd Tier candidate. To even imply he is is to be blinded by the reality of the amount of support he has throughout the country. Clark and Dean get more attention because they are unique and offer a good narrative. More attention does not make them Top-tier candidates. It is all about level of support. If a candidate is polling in the top four in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, you can easily declare them top-tier.