'06 Governors Races

[displacedyankeedem]

In '06, as in '04 there are going to be some tempting targets for pickups due to term limits, plus there are some pretty incompetent Republican governors that are out there. Here's my list of the top 6 pickup opportunities(with possible candidates):

1. New York-Elliot Spitzer is America's REAL Attorney General, since Ashcroft refuses to do anything Wall Street doesn't like. He's also a mortal lock to win if he runs.

2. Florida-I'm a big fan of Pete Peterson, who was Florida's 2nd District Congressman, Ambassador to Vietnam, and a former POW. I think he has the potential to be a great candidate.

3. Minnesota-Pawlenty is terrible....period. If Democrats can find an even half-competent candidate, this is a pickup.

4. Maryland-Ehrlich's election was a fluke, Baltimore Mayor Martin O' Malley will make mincemeat out of him next time around.

5. Texas-Perry has also shown massive incompetence in office and deserves to be unemployed, I'd like to see Ron Kirk give it another go, this time as a candidate for Governor.

6. Alabama-Riley's gonna be vulnerable after the overwhelming defeat of his tax plan.

[NewJerseyDem]

1. Watch out for Giuliani

Giuliani is expected to run for governor in 2006 and he would be the favorite over Spitzer.

Also, if Rowland retires than we have a great shot in Connecticut. Rhode Island and Massachussetts have republican governors for way too long. Eventually we should find a democrat that can win in those two states. Also, Lingle will probably be vulnerable in Hawaii. Open seats in Colorado and Ohio could also be interesting.

I think that Bill Nelson may be the best candidate to run in Florida but than his senate seat would be very vulnerable.

[TakebackAmerica]

2. hmm.

I thought Giuliani was going to run against Hillary.


Good point about Nelson. That would be a hard seat to keep.

Maybe Katherine Harris would run.:scared:

[NewJerseyDem]

3. Rumor is Giuliani wants to be governor

That just seems to be what the latest rumors are, they could change. Giuliani doesn't exactly play well with others so I don't know if he would do well in the senate. He would rather become governor of New York where he could be in charge.

[mndemocrat_29]

4. Some thoughts

First on your six

1. Eliot Spitzer is unbeatable if and only if Giuliani doesn't run. If Rudy does run, it's all over. The only people in New York who could beat him are Schumer and Clinton, and they'll stick to their senate seats. On another note, Giuliani's old job will probably be won by Rep. Anthony Weiner in 2005.

2. Sen. Bill Nelson would be a great governor, and would probably win. Since Rep. Peter Deutsch will be Sen. Peter Deutsch in 2004, the next best candidate would be Bob Butterworth. Butterworth would win, so then we'd have both the Senate and Governor's seats.

3. Atty. Gen. Mike Hatch is already running for governor, and Tim Pawlenty will be vulnerable. The other possible candidates (Judi Dutcher and Betty McCollum) will be looking at Norm Coleman's seat instead.

4. Erhlich is toast in 2006. Maryland will soon have Gov. Martin O'Malley.

5. I've heard rumors that Perry will swap races with Sen. Hutchison, instead running for senator. Hutchison will be nearly impossible to beat.

6. Who will run against Riley? For. Gov. Don Siegelman?

Other pickups could (and should) include Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Hawaii, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, and Ohio.

[NewJerseyDem]

6. Gifford Miller

I think that he will be the next mayor of New York.

[ButterflyBlood]

9. my thoughts

1. In 2006 Rudy's status won't be so much anymore with the memory of 9/11 faded. I'd say a Guiliani/Spitzer race is a tossup. And that's good in NYC, since Weiner would make a far better mayor than legislator. Right now he's just a whore to special interests and PACs.

2. Nelson will run for reelection. Graham probably will too so don't count Deutsch out. However the best candidate would probably be Rep. Allen Boyd. The problem is then we could lose his House seat.

3. If we get a candidate one iota more competant than * and the Independence Party doesn't get too involved than Pawlenty is history.

4. Elrich has no chance.

5. And we've got none here. I've heard that Perry's popularity is down though (maybe the redistricting bullshit is really pissing people off), so if it stays that way we might be able to pick up that Senate seat.

6. Isn't the Lt. Gov. a Dem? Riley will probably be getting a primary challenger.

as for the rest:

Massachussetts: Apparentely Rep. Marty Meehan is going for this one. He should be able to deal with Romney pretty easily.

Rhode Island: That right wing asshole Carcieri only got in due to an awful campaign and awful candidate. Attorney General Patrick Lynch or Rep. Jim Langevin can deal with him.

Connecticut: AG Richard Blumenthal should easily take this one.

Hawaii: Should be easily winnable, but who'll run? Maybe Rep. Ed Case, since he ran in the primary but was apparentely defeated (and thanks to Patsy Mink's death was able to pick up a House seat as a consolation prize)

Alaska: Even with Murkowski's unpopularity this is out of reach since the only high profile Democrat in the state is Knowles.

Colorado: A toss up, but who's going to run?

Georgia: After pissing off the racists with his flip flop Purdue can be easily taken out unless the voting machines are still working for him.

Ohio: Taft's unpopularity should mean his defeat. Rep. Ted Strickland probably will be the guy here.

[NewJerseyDem]

12. Taft is term limited anyway

In Connecticut, I hope that Rowland doesn't run for another term. He is still pretty young and both the senate seats seem locked up by Lieberman and Dodd, so he may want to try to stay governor.

[ButterflyBlood]

16. I think he's confirmed he won't

although he's pretty unpopular now and could be beat even if he does.

[wrkclskid]

21. Dodd will prob go for Governor in 2006

Especially if the Dems don't get the majority back, Lieberman might retire at the end of his term after his presidential campaign fails. Look for Blumenthal to run for his seat, I don;t know who Dodd would appoint as his sucessor.

[mndemocrat_29]

23. Probably Rep. Rosa DeLauro

She'd be the most likely candidate to replace Dodd.

[wrkclskid]

30. I don't know

She is getting up in age has amassed some power in the House. Also, that would mean hoplding another election right after she was re-elected. Also, their will be plenty of dems (the secretary of state, the treausrer, etc.) who may not run for their constiutional offices again and will be looking for work. They all hae potential so the Dems might not want to waste it.

[mndemocrat_29]

22. Alaska, Colorado, and Georgia

Alaska-For. Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer is a high profile candidate that could take on Murkowski.

Colorado-From the looks of things, Atty. Gen. Ken Salazar wants this seat.

Georgia-Should be Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

27. I agree about Gulianni!

in 2006 it will be a toss up between Gulianni and Spitzer!

In CT, Rowland in done for! Blumenthal would win a landslide over Rowland and Dodd would crush him like the little bug that he is!

[PROGRESSIVE1]

25. Connecticut will go to the Dem's in 06'!

Atty General Richard Blumenthal is rumored to be running!
He beat out his Republican opponent by 31% points as opposed to Rethug and wife beater John Rowland who beat his Dem opponent by 11% points! If he runs he would kick the ass of the Rethugs BIG TIME!

[burr]

5. I hope you're right about Alabama and Texas...

Arkansas and Florida would be the most likely pickups in the south. If Democrats in South Carolina and Georgia can win the open Senate races in those states this year, then this would open the door to defeating those incumbent Governors. In New England every Governorship will be a potential pickup, including New Hampshire if Democrats win this state's U.S. Senate race. New York and Ohio are two likely pickups which will probably have retiring incumbents in 2006.

As you have mentioned..Minnesota and Maryland would be easy pickups. Hawaii will be another easy pickup. South Dakota and Nevada have incumbents that can be defeated, but would not be easy pickups.

<http://www.uselectionatlas.org/GOVERNOR/menutextj.html>

[ButterflyBlood]

10. Nevada won't have an incumbent

Guinn is term limited. But if Rep. Gibbons runs it'll be pretty difficult to win.

[burr]

13. Another open election I left out is the Colorado Governor's race...

The most obvious candidate, Attorney General Ken Salazar. What are his chances?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

26. the Rethugs have Texas locked up!

Alabama could swing back to reality after Riley's doings!

[displacedyankeedem]

7. Ohio: Kucinich for Gov?

Is Kucinich electable statewide in Ohio, or would he face an uphill battle?

[ButterflyBlood]

8. doubtful

since he bankrupted Cleveland a lot there are pissed at him and that's the most Democratic city in the state. He wouldn't work tell well in the rurals either. If he runs for anything it'll be Senate. Rep. Ted Strickland will probably run for Governor.

[dsc]

11. not probably but all but definately

barring a scandal the man is running. He has been touring the state drumming up support. Just a few months ago he was at Stonewall Democrats in Cleveland endorsing gay and lesbian rights. I only know the man from afar but he has won in a very tough seat for Democrats.

[RowWellandLive]

14. 2006???

I love this kind of political analysis but this is way too soon for me. I know it's good to think ahead but so much can happen between then and now. A Gov that looks bad now can become popular and vice versa. Too far away and too many variables to make assumptions.

One caveat, I do think Riley has screwed himself for good. The problem for us is that he will probably be taken out in a primary and another Puke will win.

Carry on!!

[mndemocrat_29]

24. Rumor has it that

Judge Moore wants to run against Riley in a primary.

[ButterflyBlood]

28. that'd be dumb

since Riley defended Moore. That's not why the right is pissed at him.

[mndemocrat_29]

29. Moore has still been rumored to want it

I think the article was in Newsweek a couple of weeks ago.

[LightTheMatch]

15. Concerning Texas...

I think that we dems have learned a LOT about tactics for future statewide campaigns from the Prop 12 vote. A combination of a very good Republican statewide consultant to help us reach the suburbs combined with a very good Dem consultant to help us get out the traditional base would get us VERY close.

BUT -- we've also got to fix things in Bexar County (San Antonio) which seem to be a real mess, plus get a really good new state chair, plus make sure we do better in Dallas County and Harris County next time.

I think 2006 is going to be a very interesting election, it will show how close we are. I don't know if we can pull off an upset yet, but I know things will look much better, and the R's will start to see the writing on the wall.

[displacedyankeedem]

17. Can you describe the Democratic Areas of Texas?

I know Austin's Travis County is a hotbed of Democratic support, along with the Mexico border counties, but whic hother areas trend Democratic?

[jiacinto]

18. Beaumont

The area that sent Jack Brooks to Congress for decades still trends Democratic somewhat.

[dusty64]

19. I think the myth

of st. rudy should go up in smoke as more learn of the mess he made of NYC. When he was considering the Senate run he was becoming pretty unpopular as voters learned of the REAL rudy, then of course 9/11. I think the voters in New York are tiring of rethug governors.

[jiacinto]

20. MD

I like Mayor O'Malley a lot. I think he would make a good Governor. The next Democrat to win is going to have to pick up around 30-50,000 votes in the suburbs of Baltimore. Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard counties gave Ehrlich crushing margins against KKT. KKT lost Anne Arundel by 50,000 votes, Baltimore County by 60,000 votes. If O'Malley can win 35,000 to 50,000 more votes, while keeping Baltimore City more secure, as Ehrlich polled better than Sauerbrey there, he should be able to win.

[dusty64]

31. kick.

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