Which Primary Is High Noon?

[displacedyankeedem]

I was wondering if there was a consensus on which of the primaries will "make or break" the nomination process.

Personally, I don't think it will be Iowa or New Hampshire. If Edwards were to drop out before South Carolina, it would be the first state where none of the candidates would have a clear advantage like Dean & Kerry have in NH. However, I'm betting that Edwards will probably drag himself that far(and Bowles will run for his Senate seat). I'm also betting that the nomination will be decided before the slew of primaries on March 2. So looking at the calendar, two dates come to mind:

Feb 7-Michigan & Washington Caucuses: Both are fairly moderate, albeit Democratic leaning states that would provide a good barometer as to the electibility question surrounding the candidate pool.

OR

Feb 17-Wisconsin Primary: Also a Dem. state, Wisconsin is a key test for who can attract both the moderate and hardcore liberal(Madison) vote at the same time.

Comments?

[oldshoe]

1. You have a primary? lucky dog!

My state, Kansas, is so bankrupt (morally too), that they are not even going to bother. Instead there will be some sort of live caucus, I guess, but seeing as I live in Europe and aways have to vote absentee, I am 100% shut out. Of course, given the Electoral College, that is not exactly a new feeling.

PS

I see you are from S. Carolina.

Good luck with this primary; the last one, with W's total smear of McCann was a real lowlight of American Democracy. I'm glad I only had to suffer it from afar, it couldn't have been much fun to witness it live.

[displacedyankeedem]

5. Kansas and the '00 GOP Primary

At least Kansas elected Sebelius Governor last time around. Here in SC we lost a decent Governor, Jim Hodges to a far right wing idiot, Mark Sanford. Dennis Moore would make a great Senator if he'd ever run.

Things are looking up though, Tenenbaum should hold Hollings' seat in '04, and none of the GOP candidates are particularly inspiring or bright. The front-runner for the GOP nomination, Jim DeMint(my Congressman) is at best a tier two candidate; Tenenbaum is top tier(she got the most votes of anyone running for statewide office in '02).

During the '00 GOP Primary, I was still a Republican(albeit a very moderate one). I backed McCain, and was so disgusted with the process I switched parties and backed Gore. I've been a Democrat ever since.

[KaraokeKarlton]

2. I actually heard a rumor that Edwards is already thinking

about dropping out rather early to make sure he can defend his current seat. Although it's just a rumor, it makes sense. He's not doing very well, and unless that changes dramatically over the next couple of months he might be out before Iowa.

If Dean beats Gephardt in Iowa, I don't foresee him being in much beyond SC. If Dean takes NH, Kerry is going to sink fast. He'll probably try to hold on for awhile, but I don't think he'd recover. If Dean takes BOTH Iowa and NH and gets in the top 2 or 3 in SC there won't be anyone who can stop him. If Clark runs, he hurts Kerry more than anyone else. He's sort of the wild card that can serve to help Dean and hurt everyone else. I predict that if Clark gets in the race it will be down to just Dean and Clark pretty early and that Dean will offer Clark the VP slot if he drops out.

[alexwcovington]

3. Hmmm

It will be over very quickly this time around. Only one week between Iowa and New Hampshire, and then one week after that:

Arizona
Delaware
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
South Carolina
Oklahoma

:) North Dakota, yay! My state might actually have a say in the presidential race this time around (We're solid Dean, at least the Dems are).

I think by the time Wisconsin rolls around things will pretty much be decided - though no one will be sure until after Super Tuesday, March 2nd.

[CoffeePlease1947]

4. Michigan and South Carolina

Which ever candidate places in the top three for Iowa, NH, DC, SC, and Michigan will win the nomination.

Dean is out if he places any less than second in Iowa and second in NH.

Gephardt is out if places 2nd in Iowa and 4th in NH.

Kerry is out if he places less than 3rd in New Hampshire and 2nd in South Carolina.

Liberman is out if he places less than 4th in Iowa, NH, SC, and Michigan.

Edwards is out if he doesn't place 5th in Iowa, NH, and first in SC.

You will see people leave after NH. Most will leave after SC. All but two or three, maybe four, will be gone after Michigan.

Mike