Post your 2004 Senate Predictions Here!

[goobergunch]

I'll start with mine.

Safe DEM Seats:
HI (Inouye)
VT (Leahy)
MD (Mikulski)
CT (Dodd)
LA (Breaux)
OR (Wyden)
IN (Bayh)
NY (Schumer)

Safe DEM/possible Leans DEM (aka Potentially Competitive DEM) Seats:
WI (Feingold)
WA (Murray)
CA (Boxer)

Leans DEM/possible Safe DEM Seats:
IL (Fitzgerald (R), retiring)
ND (Dorgan)

Leans DEM Seats:
AR (Lincoln)
SD (Daschle)

Leans DEM/possible Toss-Up Seats:
NV (Reid)

TOSS-UP/possible Leans DEM (aka Tilting DEM) Seats:
NC (Edwards)

TOSS-UP Seats (no indication either way):
AK (Murkowski (R))
FL (Graham (D) running for President)
SC (Hollings (D))

TOSS-UP/possible Leans GOP (aka Tilting GOP) Seats:
PA (Specter)
GA (Miller (D) retiring)

Safe GOP/possible Leans GOP (aka Potentially Competitive GOP) Seats:
MO (Bond)
KY (Bunning)
OK (Nickles)
OH (Voinovich)

Safe GOP Seats:
CO (Campbell)
KS (Brownback)
AZ (McCain)
NH (Gregg)
AL (Shelby)
ID (Crapo)
UT (Bennett)
IA (Grassley)

For totals, see my sig line.

edit: spaces

[onehandle]

1. FYI, Georgia is lost....

We have the wealthiest GOP in the states and they have destroyed the Dems here.

No "leaning" here. GA is a done deal.

[jiacinto]

2. I wouldn't go that far yet

A lot change between now and then.

[mndemocrat_29]

10. Jim Marshall

We could still win this if we nabbed Jim Marshall for the Senate. Like many Southern Democrats, he talks moderate and votes slightly left. He could beat the inept Johnny Isaakson and the archconservative Mac Collins.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. Toss-Ups

Democratic Toss Ups:
1)Reid-Nevada
2)Hollings-South Carolina
3)Graham-Florida(If he runs for president)

Republican Toss Ups:
1)Spector-Pennsylvania
2)Bond-Missouri
3)Murkowski-Alaska

Open Seats:

1)A good Democrat should have no problem handily winning Illinois! B-)


2)Forget Georgia!!! They chose Jefferson Davis Jr. for Gov. :(

[NewJerseyDem]

4. Not Bond and Reid

Kit Bond still probably has an advantage in Missouri. That state seems to lean Republican and there is no major Democratic opponent yet. He did win by 9 points back in 1998.

Also, Reid should be the favorite in Nevada. Of course his 1998 race was very tight but he wasn't the Democratic whip yet. I think his position in the leadership will help and he may become the Democratic leader after the 2004 elections because Daschle could retire or lose his seat or Daschle may give up his position which he has held since 1995.

I think the other four are good. But, I think that both Georgia and North Carolina could be tossups depending on who ends up running. It is still a little too early to tell about some of these races.

[jiacinto]

6. Reid is from Las Vegas; Gibbons isn't

Clark County is 75% of Nevada's votes. If Reid can prevail there, which is his base, he should eke out a win as he did in 1998.

Bond will win as no Democrat has stepped forth yet.

[UrbScotty]

8. As you won't yet call the GOP the winners in Georgia...

I wouldn't give up hope on Missouri yet either. See my post below.

[TSIAS]

5. Alaska

With Tony Knowles announcement that he is running, I think it is a prime opportunity for a Dem pickup.

[UrbScotty]

7. Here are the chances I think we have in each race.

Red = I predict a GOP pickup
Blue = I predict a Dem pickup
Asterisk (*) = see below

*Alabama: 25%
*Alaska: 55%
*Arizona: 20%
Arkansas: 65%
California: 75%
*Colorado: 20%
Connecticut: 95%
*Florida: 52%
Georgia: 40%
*Hawaii: 90%
Idaho: 0.2%
Illinois: 60%
Indiana: 80%
Iowa: 25%
*Kansas: 20%
Kentucky: 30%
Louisiana: 80%
Maryland: 80%
*Missouri: 40%
Nevada: 60%
New Hampshire: 15%
New York: 90%
*North Carolina: 60%
North Dakota: 75%
Ohio: 40%
*Oklahoma: 35%
Oregon: 98%
Pennsylvania: 45%
South Carolina: 55%
*South Dakota: 65%
Utah: 0.31415927...%
Vermont: 95%
*Washington: 65%
*Wisconsin: 65%

You might notice that in some states, I have numbers like 98% (Oregon) or .2% (Idaho). I don't have any 100% or 0% here because there's always a chance something will happen to cause the other party to take over between now and the election, i.e. a resignation, (God forbid) a death, or even a party switch.

Alabama: Last year, the two most popular politicians in Alabama were Bob Riley and Don Siegelman. And since Riley barely beat Siegelman last year, if he does run for the Senate, I think he could at least give Shelby a run for his money.

Alaska: Unlike Tony Knowles, his predecessor, Governor Frank Murkowski, the Senator's dad, is very unpopular, and in a poll, 58% of Alaskans believed that her dad appointing her was reason enough to vote against Lisa. In other polls, Knowles had a favorability rating of 2-1, while Lisa has a net negative approval rating of 33%-34%.

Arizona: While McCain won't face any major primary competition (or general election, for that matter), he is a "Democrat in everything but name," according to Walter Scott in PARADE Magazine. So, while I'd expect him to stay Republican, who knows?

Colorado: Are DeGette, Webb, and Udall for sure not running for Senate? I think any one of them would give "Ben Nightmare Campbell" a nightmare.

Florida: If Graham is somewhere on the ticket, or if Penelas is the nominee, I think we can hold this one. Now, to my knowledge, Graham hasn't completely ruled out a run for a fourth term; This analysis says he will not run.

Hawaii: If Inouye runs for an eighth term, I say he's pretty much a shoe-in. If not, I think the Republicans would have a snowball's chance in hell.

Kansas: Please note, this is a state whose Republicans are sharply divided, and whose Governor is a Democrat. If Moore, Sebelius, or Glickman run, I think we too have snowball's chance in hell here.

Missouri: Bond is so unpopular here, but so is Holden. Jeremiah Nixon lost this race against Bond in 1998 by something like 53-44%. Ronnie White has been considered a possible candidate, as have a state senator and an attorney. But I wonder if Carnahan would like to try again? She only lost by 40,000-some votes.

North Carolina: Picture this: A lawyer, in his mid-forties, runs against a well-known senator. Election night comes, and the lawyer beats the senator in one of the biggest upsets of the election. Well, it happened in 1998, when Sen. Lauch Faircloth was beaten by a man named John Edwards.

Oklahoma: If Carson and Nickles run, Carson might also give Nickles a run for his money. But if Carson runs, I think it could be a toss-up.

South Dakota: Thune couldn’t beat Johnson; I don’t see how he could beat Daschle.

Washington: If Nethercutt doesn’t run, I think Murray’s safe. I think.

Wisconsin: In 1998, Feingold was outspent 3-1, because he self-imposed spending restrictions based on his and McCain’s campaign finance bill. Now it looks like he will face the same opponent from 1998, the one he beat by only a few thousand votes.

So, I think we will gain one seat in the Senate, for 49 Democrats, 50 Republicans, and Jim Jeffords. I have predicted that Dean would become the next President, and the Vice President will be either Clark, Gephardt, or Graham. If Jeffords becomes a Democrat and creates a 50-50 tie, the Dem VP would give us the tie-breaking vote. :-)

[ButterflyBlood]

9. replies:

Alabama: Riley is the strongest candidate, but his chances still aren't too great

Colorado: The best candidate here would be if we could get Gary Hart to run again. Webb also would be a good candidate. DeGette and Udall are way too liberal to win a statewide race.

Florida: I doubt Graham will run, but I think we'll hold onto this one as now strong GOP candidates have come out

Kansas: Sebelius won't run until she at least finishes 1 term. Moore has to fight like hell to win reelection in his district, which is the state's most liberal, he could never survive statewide. Glickman would have a chance, but so far he's given no sign of running.

Oklahoma: Carson or the AG (can't remember his name) could pick up this seat if Nickles retires.

Washington: With no strong GOP candidates coming forth, Murray's safe.

Wisconsin: Feingold's safe now. From what I've heard his vote against the Patriot Act has made him a hero and insanely popular at home.

[displacedyankeedem]

11. Colorado: Tim Wirth???

Yeah, he'd be 65 when elected, but Knowles is 60 and Wirth could serve at least 2 terms(he'd be 77). How popular is he in Colorado???

[coloradodem]

12. Tim Wirth

He was very popular when he was in the Senate and likely would have won a second term had he chosen to run for re-election in 92. Unfortunately, we got stuck with Ben Turncoat Campbell. I would doubt that Wirth would be interested because I don't think he enjoys raising money and all of the extraneous stuff that's part of running for elected office. Also his profile in Colorado isn't very high anymore. With the large surge in growth we've had over the past decade, half of the people in Colorado probably couldn't tell you who Tim Wirth is. I would be excited if Tim Wirth ran for the Senate but don't count on it. Our best bets are Ken Salazar, Wellington Webb, or Mark Udall but it's really hard to tell if any of them have the stomach to get into what would be a tough race against a popular incumbent. If Campbell retires, it's a whole different ballgame but that seems unlikely.

[mndemocrat_29]

14. Ken Salazar

I believe that Salazar remains the best, and probably only, candidate who could take on Campbell. Recent reports say he's considering it, which would be good for Democrats.

[shatoga]

13. A (D)Liberal Senator will die in a plane crash

Just before the election.

It's an amerikan tradition.

Another dead Democrat to demoralize the rest.


It happens in State races too.

Just gets only local coverage, but has the same effect.