Republican strategy for CA Recall is to make it look silly

[AP]

I believe the Republicans benefit if the recall looks like a big circus (which is the way the media is selling this). I think hardcore Dems will be less inclined to go the polls and vote no if they think the whole thing is silly. If they feel something is at stake (and something is -- the Enron investigation, and magic hole electronic voting for Presidential election '04, to be specific) they'll show up to vote No-Bustamante.

So it's incredibly important for Democrats to get out the message "It's Serious. Vote No. Vote Bustamante."

I've also noticed that every serious Republican is trying to sell himself as a moderate or bipartisan. But if they get elected, all their appointees will be the Republicans who made the crappy policy (energy deregulation, to be specific) which got California in the mess it's in, and the governor will be working with all the same Republicans in the legislature who screw over the middle class in favor of big business (energy companies, to be specific) every chance they get.

[Perky]

1. I am no longer worried

Lets say Gray loses the recall vote 45% to 55%

Where are the 45% going to cast there second vote? my guess is that it is going to be something like 28% for Cruz and 12% for Garimendi. The other 5% voter for one of four candidate who are not GOPers (28%+12%+5%=45%)

Now the 55% that vote to recall the Governor:

5% will assuredly vote for Cruz or Garimendi. They just hate Gray but are loyal Dems.
25% will vote for Simon or McClintock No way they vote for anyone else. They would never vote for Arnold because he is pro-choice and dirty.

OK that leaves 25% left over as the max that Arnold can get. ANd that is even before you consider Camejo/Huffington/Ubberoth

But Cruz is pracitcally guaranteed 25% for those who voted to keep Gray and 5% who want to recall him.

I just do not see how Cruz can lose.

What am I missing?

[AP]

2. What you're missing (like I said) is that NO voters won't

show up if this thing as percieived as a big circus. If there's no sense of urgency, the Democrats will not vote. The only people who will show up will be the well-financed, organized, extremely motivated Republicans, and their hand-picked successor (whomever that is, and I'm sure they have one, probably Arnold) and they will win the election with 12% of the vote. (Which is a variation of the way Minnesota elected the wrestler.)

[genius]

3. Dont' forget Arianna

A lot of Democrats will vote for her. You should have seen the response she got from a mostly Democratic audience when Eric Alterman suggested she run for governor.

We need to find a way of consolidating the votes behind one candidate. How about if we work out a straw poll deal involving Democrats, Greens and independents. All the candidates who lose the straw poll (including Bustamonte) could agree to drop out and leave the race to one liberal candidate. I suspect Bustamonte would win. But who knows.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

4. Then we've got to make it...

SERIOUS!

:dem:

[catzies]

5. THAT MESSAGE IS GREAT!!!

Gotta get that out there exactly as you said it!!!
**************************************************
"It's Serious. Vote No. Vote Bustamante."

"It's Serious. Vote No. Vote Bustamante."

"It's Serious. Vote No. Vote Bustamante."

"It's Serious. Vote No. Vote Bustamante."

"It's Serious. Vote No. Vote Bustamante."

"It's Serious. Vote No. Vote Bustamante."

"It's Serious. Vote No. Vote Bustamante."
**************************************************

[VoteClark]

6. You got it wrong, and should be scared, sort of.

They people that vote against the recall can't vote for a new governor. Only the people that vote for the recall can vote for who to replace Davis.

So if 49% vote against the recall, then the 51%, which would be mostly Republicans, vote for the replacement.

The only way for the Democrats to win is to all vote for the recall and vote for the Same Democrat. That is going to happen though. Here is what is going to happen:

40-49% of Californians will vote down the recall. 60% will vote for it. Arnold will get about 50% of the 60% that can vote. About 30-40% will go to Huffington, and the remaining will be split amoung the others on the ballot.

The problem is that Davis will have 40% of the vote and Arnold no more then 30% and he still will win. Another election when the person with the most votes loses in the election. No fair again

The good news is that California will still vote for the Democratic Candidate providing we put a decent one up.

:kick:
J4Clark

[TSIAS]

7. I believe that is inaccurate

The people who vote NO on 1 can still vote for a replacement. That is why Davis will probably say NO on 1 and YES on Bustamonte.

[w4rma]

8. TSIAS, you are correct. VoteClark is incorrect. You must vote on both (n/t

[xequals]

12. That's incorrect

It's a two part ballot. In simple terms:

1. Recall Davis - Yes or No ?
2. If Davis is recalled, who should replace him ?

ALL voters get to vote on BOTH questions.
Davis must receive more than 50% of the vote on the first part of the ballot in order to defeat the recall.
Davis cannot be on the second part of the ballot (voters can't vote to replace Davis with himself).
Whoever receives the most votes on the second part of the ballot becomes governor IF Davis loses the recall.

This is almost like two separate elections happening at the same time. In an ideal situation an election would be held simply to decide whether or not to recall Davis. Then, if Davis was recalled, a second election would be held to decide the replacement. But the voters will vote on both questions at the same time. Obviously they won't know if Davis will be recalled or not. This is why voters should vote on both parts of the ballot. If Davis isn't recalled, whoever wins the second part of the ballot won't matter. But if Davis is recalled, whoever wins the second part of the ballot does matter -- they'll become governor.

Dems should vote NO on 1, and BUSTAMANTE on 2.

Leaving the second part blank would mean that non-Dems would be deciding the replacement should Davis be recalled. That would be a disaster.

[VoteClark]

14. You got a link?

I heard on the news you can't vote NO on the recall and still vote for someone to replace him. That is like voting twice. First, I will vote for Davis, if he loses, then I will vote for someone else. Doesn't make logical since to vote twice.


:kick:
J4Clark

[xequals]

15. Voting rules

Voting rules

• Election is Tuesday, Oct. 7.

• There will be two recall questions on the ballot. The first will ask if voters want to recall Davis. The second is who will replace Davis if he is recalled.

• Voters can: Vote to recall Davis and then vote for a gubernatorial candidate. Vote not to recall Davis and then vote for a gubernatorial candidate. Skip the recall question and just vote for a candidate.

• First question: It takes a voter majority to recall Davis.

• Second question: It takes a plurality to elect a gubernatorial candidate. The new governor will be the top vote-getter of all the candidates. There is no runoff if no candidate wins a majority.


<snip>


• Davis cannot be a candidate to replace himself, and he cannot stop the recall by resigning.

• If Davis resigns now, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante would become governor until the recall election. If voters defeat the recall, Bustamante would remain governor. If voters approve the recall, Bustamante would give up the office to the person selected in the replacement election. Bustamante is also a candidate in that election.

• If Davis resigns, his name would still appear on the first recall question.

• The election will be certified no later than 28 days after the vote and if the recall is successful, the new governor can then take office.

<snip>


http://www.bayarea.com/mld/cctimes/news/special_packages/davis_recall/6500942.htm

[xequals]

16. Another point

The reason why it's not like voting twice is because part 1 of the ballot is simply about whether Davis is to be recalled or not .. it has nothing to do with voting for anyone .. it's strictly about whether Davis stays or goes.

Part 2 is where people vote for a candidate to replace Davis. If Davis beats the recall (part 1) it won't matter who wins part 2. Should Davis lose the recall, the winner of part 2 becomes governor. This is why we need Dems to vote on both questions: NO on 1, BUSTAMANTE on 2. That way, if Davis beats the recall we win. If Davis loses the recall and Bustamante gets a plurality on part 2, we win.

[sandnsea]

9. The Republicans caused the circus

and are backing a cartoon character for governor. How much more ridiculous can they look?

The Democrats just need to bring out Bustamante, hammer away at the Enron - deficit fraud, show that Texas has a huge deficit and other states as well, all thanks to George W. Bush.

Expose the Republicans and present a strong candidate. If they do this, I don't think they can lose.

[DrFunkenstein]

10. The Presidential Candidates Should Point At The GOP For This

Arnold is the perfect punching bag. This is the face of the modern GOP. From Abraham Lincoln to The Last Action Hero.

PS - This is serious. Vote Arianna.

[sandnsea]

11. This IS serious

Vote Bustamante. Arianna is a nice lady with plenty of wonderful things to say, but she is no more prepared to be Governor of California than Arnold is.

[VoteClark]

13. That is why Arnold will win.

Some say vote for Huffington, others Bustimonte. The division has made Arnold the winner already.


:kick:
J4Clark