Trouble in November?

[jerryster]

OK, I realize that the article I link to here was written by Mark McKinnon. Nonetheless, the 2 paragraphs I show here are troubling if accurate. The link appears below them.

Sixty-four percent of likely voters say the nation is on the wrong track. Now just 20 percent of registered voters identify themselves as liberals, while 42 percent call themselves conservatives. And not only are conservatives trending up (with liberals trending down), they are also significantly more enthusiastic about voting in the 2010 congressional elections.

Even independents are ready to throw in the towel. By more than a 2-1 margin, independents agree more Republicans are needed in Congress as “a check and balance on runaway Washington government.”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-06-30/bill-clintons-hotter-than-barack-who-wants-obamas-endorsement/?cmpid=p_yahoo

[leveymg]

1. I think a lot of people around here underestimate the power of "hte stupid"

Too many posts about how the GOPpers are jumping ship and becoming Blue Dog Democrats, the DINO Right-wing is taking over DU and other progressive sites, and how the Republican Party will all but disappear in November.

Such soothing notions.

[Kolesar]

2. The approval rating for the GOP was ~64% in 1994 for that rout

Today, their approval is about half that. They are not poised for victory. What is their message, anyway?

[keopeli]

3. Frankly, those are all normal numbers, not panic numbers

42% say they are conservative - that's normal. McCain got about that many votes in 08.
20% say they're liberal - that's normal. Liberal is still a dirty word. Even liberals won't say they're liberal.
Congress is heavily weighted toward the Democrats, unusually so, after the 06 and 08 elections. Saying Congress in general needs a better balance is normal in the first mid-term election of a new president anyway.

These numbers haven't changed in quite a while and indicate to me status quo. The only thing unusual to me is that there is hardly a status quo mentality right now, which indicates that either the poll is fixed or that the results are flawed and are not representing what's really going on. I tend to think the latter, as pollsters stopped using scientific polls some time ago and now use polls based on what they think people want to hear, or what they think their clients want to hear.

Interpreting the results is another game entirely. One could easily look at these numbers and say that things look unusually calm and uneventful for this election year for reasons I mentioned above. But, that wouldn't sell many papers or get many page views now would it?