The predictioneer: Using games to see the future in strategic situations

[steven johnson]

"The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves . .." Julius Caesar (I, ii, 140-141).

Fate is not what drives men to their decisions and actions, but rather the human condition.

One self-styled "predictioneer" (of predicting the future) believes he has found the answer. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a professor of politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in California. In his new book, The Predictioneer (The Predictioneer's Game in the US), he describes a computer model based on game theory which he - and others - claim can predict the future with remarkable accuracy.

Over the past 30 years, Bueno de Mesquita has made thousands of predictions about hundreds of issues from geopolitics to personal problems. Overall, he claims, his hit rate is about 90 per cent. So how does he do it?

Rather, he confines himself to "strategic situations" where relatively small numbers of people are haggling over a contentious decision. "I can predict events and decisions that involve negotiation or coercion, cooperation or bullying," he says. That includes domestic politics, foreign policy, conflicts, business decisions and social interactions.

I can predict events and decisions that involve negotiation or coercion, cooperation or bullying
His main tool is game theory, which uses mathematics to predict what people will do in a situation where the outcome also depends on other people's decisions. "It's a fancy label for a pretty simple idea: that people do what they believe is in their best interest," says Bueno de Mesquita.


The predictioneer: Using games to see the future

[RandomThoughts]

1. That is why people that care for others can change the world.

Because thinking of Loving others above ones own goals is not predictable.

However if they add the concept of many people doing better as a persons self interest, for example for many people a world that is better is in their self interest because it gives them purpose and a worthy cause, such an algorithm might be more accurate.

Also to defeat 'the machine' love makes the difference, because love is not selfish, nor of self interest, but of enjoying that special feeling of doing something bigger than a persons own wants. And sharing in the spirit of love and kindness.

[tcaudilllg]

2. Could the creator of this algorithm have imagined such a thing?

It is commonly the case that a man's contribution mirrors his personality.