NYT op-ed: Popular Mechanics
By RHODES COOK
Published: May 5, 2008
Annandale, Va.
WHILE Hillary Clinton probably can’t catch Barack Obama in the race for most pledged delegates at the Democratic presidential nominating convention, she does have a shot at overtaking him in the popular vote. Whoever triumphs in that symbolic total will have a persuasive argument to use with the wavering superdelegates who are likely to decide the race this summer.
Granted, Mrs. Clinton boasts that she has the lead already, but her count includes the votes in the unsanctioned primaries in Florida and Michigan. A fairer calculation would eliminate the ballots cast in those two states, as well as the votes from caucuses where no statewide tally of the actual vote was compiled. (Those states are Iowa, Maine, Nevada and Washington; Mr. Obama won three of them.) Territories that do not possess any Electoral College votes should be ruled out, too. Using those standards, Mrs. Clinton trails Mr. Obama by about 500,000 votes right now. To receive an uncontested popular-vote victory, she would need to erase that number in the seven states remaining — without relying on the trove of votes in the June 1 primary in Puerto Rico. That’s a daunting challenge, but she could do it. Here’s how.
First, she needs a very high turnout in the remaining states. Second, she would have to maximize her vote in the states where she is positioned to do well. Third, she would need to run close to even with Mr. Obama in states where the terrain is less favorable.
The first necessity for Mrs. Clinton — high turnout — is a virtual certainty....(T)he total turnout for the seven remaining Democratic primary states could well approach five million. That means that Mrs. Clinton would need to win the overall vote by a margin of at least 10 percentage points to overcome Mr. Obama’s lead. To do that, Mrs. Clinton needs to fulfill her second requirement for victory by running up her winning margins in Kentucky and West Virginia....The other realistic place for her to play offense is Indiana....The vote margins in these three states could narrowly give Mrs. Clinton the lead in the popular vote. But that would be just half the battle.
Closing the deal means she has to pull off her third requirement for victory by playing tough defense in the four other states. North Carolina and the three remaining primaries west of the Mississippi (Montana, Oregon and South Dakota) all lie in territory that has favored Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton’s ability to run about even in these states, or possibly score an upset or two, depends on a succession of strong finishes like the ones she pulled off in Ohio and Pennsylvania....
***
Should Mrs. Clinton win Indiana by close to double digits and hold her own in North Carolina, she could still emerge as the 2008 Democratic popular-vote champion.
(Rhodes Cook is the author of “Race for the Presidency: Winning the 2008 Nomination.”)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/05/opinion/05cook.html?hp(NOTE: THE TITLE OF THIS PIECE IS "POPULAR MECHANICS." IT APPEARS AS AN OP-ED IN THE NEW YORK TIMES, NOT IN THE PUBLICATION "POPULAR MECHANICS.")
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