Tuesday's primary unlikely to end Democratic race

[DeepModem Mom]

LAT: Tuesday's primary unlikely to end Democratic race
Obama continues to lead among delegates, but his recent troubles keep Clinton's hopes alive. Barring an unexpected sweep, they're probably both in the race until June.
By Mark Z. Barabak and Cathleen Decker, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
May 4, 2008

BLOOMINGTON, IND. -- Just about everyone, including Barack Obama, agrees these last few weeks have been tough ones. He missed a chance to close out the Democratic presidential nominating fight by losing Ohio to rival Hillary Rodham Clinton, then lost again in Pennsylvania. His big lead over Clinton in national polls disappeared. Worse, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. -- Obama's longtime pastor -- resurfaced, spitting fire during a National Press Club appearance. The Illinois senator was badly burned in the process. Yet for all that, Obama remains a strong favorite to win the nomination. The simple reason is mathematics: His lead among elected delegates makes it virtually impossible for Clinton to win without having the nomination handed to her by party insiders, the so-called superdelegates....

The next test comes Tuesday, when Indiana and North Carolina hold their primaries. Barring the unexpected -- a blowout in either state, or twin victories by either Obama or Clinton -- the probable outcome is a continued stalemate. That would give each candidate incentive to keep running at least until June 3, the last day of the primary season: Obama because of his seemingly insurmountable lead in nominating delegates and the popular vote, and Clinton because of doubts sown in recent weeks about Obama's general-election viability....

But as the election season grinds toward a close, the pressure on Clinton to change the dynamic of the contest has grown more pronounced. Nearly 90% of the pledged delegates have been chosen. Even if she wins all the remaining primaries in a landslide, the New York senator would still need to corral an overwhelming proportion of the party's undeclared superdelegates -- the party leaders and others with an automatic vote at the Democratic convention -- to seize the nomination. The latest count by the Associated Press showed Obama with 1742.5 delegates to Clinton's 1,607.5. It takes 2,024 delegates to clinch the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August. Among superdelegates, Clinton's once-dominant lead has been winnowed to less than two dozen.

There is little reason, however, for the former first lady to quit, as long as she continues to win and Obama struggles, as he has since his allegiance to the incendiary Wright became an issue....But the controversy may have helped Obama to a degree. If his nomination is inevitable, the thinking seems to go, better to end the fight before too much more damage is done. That may explain the latest batch of superdelegates who have jumped off the fence to support Obama....

http://www.latimes.com/news/la-na-campaign4-2008may04,0,1173697.story

[saltpoint]

1. Trendlines clearly favor Obama. Polling this week suggests she takes

Indiana and he takes NC and that SDs continue to drift his way, short of a majority by June but in a fateful accumulation as to suggest that he and not she will be the nominee in Denver.

McCain's head start is one issue, not only because we can beat the sonofabitch but because no one that unqualified should be allowed any advantage when so much is at stake.

County Dem organizers want this over with sooner rather than later so they can intensify focus on down-ballot races that build the party's infrastructure. You want a deeper shade of blue votes from Ben Nelson and Evan Bayh? Then you help put a stronger party scaffolding in place to cover their butts when they go out on a limb. That's done by down-ballot volunteering but it's impacted by the temperaments of who's at the top of the ticket in presidential years. Numerically, the numbers are greater in those cycles so we need to seize every advantage.

There is Clinton fatigue. Some of us had it in 1992, by February. Nevermind May or June. And nevermind this many years later. It's not hate. But not every Democrat is a Clinton Democrat and Hillary has not done anything, IMO, to persuade those Democrats that she and not Obama/Edwards/Biden/Dodd/Kucinich/Gravel/Richardson is the stronger, more representative candidate.

For all the cash she started with last fall, I don't understand why she didn't hire speech writers to make her sound more presidential on the trail. Right now she sounds like Annie Oakley after a thick ale binge at the saloon inbetween gunfights. If you were not a Clinton Democrat in 1992 there's little to persuade you to join up in 2008.

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Great commentary, Old Crusoe -- thanks! nt

[John Q. Citizen]

5. As soon as Obama wins a majority of elected delegates on May 20th, the supers will move quickly.

If they are smart, they will move in big eneough numbers so that Obama goes over the 2024 mark with Montana and S. Dekota. That way the appearance is that he's been nominated by the voters and not by the supers. this would be best for both Obama and for the supers, and best for the party.

[saltpoint]

6. Agree on all counts.

He's had a remarkable year. I think it's about to get even more remarkable-ler!

[saltpoint]

3. Hi there, DeepModemMom. I can't help but notice that

your posts on DU serve to elevate and inform. Time and again there you are, posting articles for folks' consideration.

Pretty darn good citizenship in cyberspace, IMO.

Thank you.

[DeepModem Mom]

4. Thank you, Old Crusoe!

As a longtime "news junkie," I enjoy posting these FYIs for us DUers!