Poll: Kerry has N.H. edge: Dems see senator as `electable'
by David R. Guarino
Sunday, July 27, 2003
Vaulted into the top tier of Democratic presidential hopefuls by his tough, anti-war rhetoric, Howard Dean still can't convince New Hampshire voters he can beat President Bush, a new Boston Sunday Herald poll shows.
``Although the Dean message is a popular one, Kerry is perceived as having more experience in foreign policy and is seen as more electable,'' said Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.
Forty-four percent of voters say Kerry is more electable than Dean - only 17 percent say Dean has a better shot against Bush, the poll found.
Kerry, and Kerry alone has the years of Foreign affairs experience, wrote the medicaid changes that allowed the small increses in medicaid services in Vermont for Adults as well as the program that allwed Dea to expand Vermonts Dr Dynasair program to families at 300 percent above the federal poverty level.
This too will all come out as Kerry begin a hard campaign against Dean this fall.
So again, to you want to be right and weak
Or Right and Strong
WHen November 2004 comes around.
Dean, while surging nationally, has had to battle a nagging sense among Democrats that he is too liberal, poorly funded or lacks the stature to take on Bush in the general election.
While Dean could take some solace that New Hampshire voted for Republican John McCain over Bush despite similar electability concerns, Myers said Kerry should exploit the clear opening against his toughest opponent.
``It's certainly something for the Kerry campaign to emphasize and remind people, putting subtle messages out there that, when it comes to November, I'm the candidate that will send Bush back to Crawford, (Texas),'' Myers said.
In the Herald poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters, Dean takes 28 percent of the vote and Kerry 25 percent while a second tier of candidates lagged behind, U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut at 11 percent and U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) at 9 percent.
http://www2.bostonherald.com/news/local_regional/poll07272003.htmNow a CBS poll places Dean competing with Bus and the election results being beaten by Bush by 15 points, where the stats for Kerry are the closest to beating Bush w2ith Kerry at 42 percent, and Bush at 50 percent.
with this poll pacing Kerry and Dean statistically at a dead heat, within the margin of error, where it comes to electabilit, Kerry is so far ahead of Dean that Dean need not even try to run, republicans Know they cand beat him without even trying to steal the election.
As for Bush, CBS shows him with a 60% approval rating, their lowest since prior to 9/11, Newsweek shows Bush at 55% approval. These numbers are typically 15% above the likely support number, though the Newsweek poll shows Bush beating all comers in head-to-head match-ups:
When registered voters were asked who they would vote for in a general presidential election between Bush and a Democratic opponent, Bush won every race—against Dean (53 percent vs. 38 percent), Edwards (51 percent vs. 39 percent), Gephardt (51 percent vs. 42 percent), Kerry (50 percent vs. 42 percent) and Lieberman (52 percent vs. 39 percent).
This is within the range for any of the Democrats to win.
http://www.mydd.com/archives/000675.htmlTHe CBS poll places All of these candidates within winning rage, but Kerry has absolutely the best shot in this national poll, and in highly Republican New Hampshire, Kerrys chance of beating Bush is almost 250 percent higher than Deans chance. In the national CBS poll Kerry's has twoce as good a chance of breating Bush...
Now you have to ask the question. Do you want give away your vote on the basis of campaign talk, as slick as any deodorant commercial, or do you want to play to win. Do you want to risk 4 more years of Bush by voting for someone who little is known about, but may come out in when Bush starts to campaign against Dean, or for someone every Republican administration since Nixons has tried to destroy and failed. THere is no virtaully no possiblity of a surprise about Kerry coming up to smear him, but with Deans sealing of his records for almost twice the normal time perion, having rewuested 20 years first, and using the statement "Not wanting something embarassing to be used against him" as part of the explaination, and the Vermont REpublicans now demanding the Dean open his record to the public, and having the political power to force him to by legislation, any Dean effort to keep those records closed is going to have every Democrat in America thinking "Whitewater" if Dean does not come clean.
Deans latest pullback on National Health will also begin to erode his popularity. MAny of the older of Deans supporters supported him based largely on his National Health stance. They do not expect incrementalism. As Kucinich said, you dont jump a canyon in two leaps. Dean record on actually providing Health Care in Vermont will now be closely scrutinized, and when it is revealed that all increases resulted from federal changes to medicaid, his statements about doing for the nation what he did for Vermont will be viewd in a new, and skeptical light.
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