Amateur electoral vote analysis

[Michigander4Dean]

Here's a neat little tool I like to use: http://grayraven.com/ec/

Bush country: 122 electoral votes
AL
AK
GA
ID
KS
KY
MS
MT
NE
ND
OK
SC
SD
TX
UT
WY

Kerry country: 151 electoral votes
CA
CT
DC
DE
HI
ME
MD
MA
NJ
NY
RI
VT

Kerry leads 151-122.

Numbers that follow are electoral votes for each state.

Leaning toward Bush: 104 electoral votes
AZ-10
AR-6
CO-9
LA-9
MO-11
NV-5
NH-4
NC-15
TN-11

Kerry will probably win: 194 electoral votes

IL-21
IA-7
MI-17
MN-10
PA-21
WA-11
WI-10

Kerry leads 255-226

The Battleground states of this election, I think, will be Ohio (27 votes), Florida (27 votes), and New Mexico and West Virginia (5 each).

If Kerry does have a 255-226 lead from the aforementioned states, it will hinge upon whether or not Ohio or Florida go to Kerry. If he wins one (or both) of them, he wins it all. If Bush wins both of them, he wins.

[Cuban_Liberal]

1. Slight correction: IL

No way in HELL should IL be in the 'Kerry will probably win' column. Bush couldn't carry this state if he personally passed out $100 bills to every voter--- take it to the bank.

:hi:

[FARAFIELD]

2. I AGREE ABOUT ILLINOIS

Especially with Obama on the TIcket now that should generate some voting patterns that will be even more favorable to us than the Repugs.

[billhos]

3. What about Indiana

I did not see anything for my native state. Also, I counted only 48 states including DC. I could understand kicking out Alabama or Mississippi by why Indiana.

[UrbScotty]

4. And Oregon and Virginia (nt)

[Padraig18]

5. IN is to the Midwest what MS is to the South...

Just kidding! :P

Peace. :hug:

[billhos]

6. That's alright

I don't live there any more

[Michigander4Dean]

7. *WHOOPS * PLEASE READ*

I forgot to puyt Oregon in the "Kerry will probably win" column, and Indiana and Virginia in the "Bush will probably win" column.

And, there are only 104 votes in the "Kerry Will Probably Win" column.

Sorry for that.

[Padraig18]

8. Few states are as solidly 'blue' as is Illinois.

IL should be in the 'Kerry country' column.

:hi:

[Finbar]

9. NC is a definate for Bush unless..

Edwards somehow secures the ticket and can convert about 1/3 of the voters..

[NMDemDist2]

10. Don't count out AZ we went for Clinton remember? and we are working

hard out here to sign up voters etc. Bush's thing with the "illegal immigrants" will back fire on him. The dems won't care and the Hispanics don't believe him. He only loses here with the suburban white voters who are nervous about the crime we see from the "coyotes" who bring in the illegals for cash. So don't count AZ out of the Kerry race yet. Also we have a lot of retired military who like Kerry's was record and stand on Veteran Affairs.

[Freddie Stubbs]

11. Bush is leading by a comfortable margin in PA right now

Although Gore won it last time. I would definitely count it as a battleground state.

[Lefty48197]

12. Bush is NOT leading in PA by a comfortable margin

where die you get this? Here's a couple of links to recent polls:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10183.xml
"President's approval rating in PA is the lowest ever" Kerry 50-45

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Pennslvania%20March%2018.htm Kerry 45-44

Those are hardly "comfortable leads" for Bush. Recent polls do show that Bush has overtaken Kerry, but that is due entirely to the onslaught of big business money ads that Bush has unleashed on Pennsylvanians. Bush has spent a ton of money, and his numbers have nowhere to go but down.

Here's a quote from the second link "...she (Theresa Heinz Kerry) continues to pump money and time into the Pittsburgh area, one of the larger targets in her long history of philanthropy". That's got to help!