Minnesota, 1998 vs. 2000 vs. 2002

[ButterflyBlood]

I couldn't help but notice the difference in these maps. This is the map of Minnesota in 2000, with the counties won by Gore in red and Bush in blue (you'll have to click on it to see it):

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/img.php?year=2000&st=MN&type=map

This is the governor's race of 2002. Blue counties are the ones won by PUKElenty, red by the Democrat Moe and Green by the Independence candidate Penny.



This is 1998, with the green counties being won by Jesse, the blue ones by :puke: Coleman and the red ones by the Democrat Humphrey:



In 2002 Penny did best down south where I live because it was his home district. He didn't do well at all up north. However, notice that the ENTIRE northern part of the state solidly went for Moe. Gore only won the northeastern part. Also note that in 1998 the north was Humphrey's best part of the state, including the northwest.
Now here's what I found most interesting, the results for Kittson county, our most northwestern county:

2000:

Gore: 42%
Bush: 51.3%
Nader: 2.6%

1998:

Ventura: 16.53%
Coleman: 32.16%
Humphrey: 50.34%

2002:

PUKElenty: 30.31%
Moe: 60.62%
Penny: 7.79%

Other counties such as Lake of the Woods which as the arrowhead pointing up have similar results. Now the question is, why such a change? The Democrats in gubernatorial races can win easy majorities up there even in a 3-way race, yet Bush can beat Gore with Nader getting below average for the state (except the far northeastern Pine county, where Bush won and Nader took more than 10%)? What happened here? If we can get this area to vote Democratic in the same level as the gubernatorial races, and keep all the other areas that voted for Gore, we'll win Minnesota in a cakewalk like we should be able to.

[Sorwen]

1. interesting

The northeast always votes Democrat. Roger Moe is from the northwest, which explains why he had success up there. But that doesn't explain why Humphrey had success in the NW but Gore didn't.

(Didn't whoever made these maps get the memo that Democrats are blue and Republicans red? I like blue better.)

[ButterflyBlood]

2. my guess...

is that Gore was portrayed as too anti-gun. Humphrey solidly won the northwest though, and it was by enough so you can't blame Jesse for splitting the pro-gun vote.

[mndemocrat_29]

3. Moe was actually Humphrey's running mate

However, Democrats should be able to win this northern region (since it is entirely represented by Democrats (Oberstar and Peterson) in Congress). Also, if someone could figure out a way for a Democrat to win Minnesota in a cakewalk, could they tell whoever wins the nominations against Pawlenty and Coleman? I'd really appreciate it!

[ButterflyBlood]

4. If Hatch runs against Pawlenty, I say we win easily

Hatch is the only statewide office holder to get more than 50% of the vote and has been elected twice. He should cream Pawlenty everywhere except the outer suburbs, the only part of the state Pawlenty seems to care about.

Even though the northern part of the state is represented by Peterson, it's because he's a DINO. That district is the most Republican one we have, although the more central and southern parts of it are more Republican than the north.

[mndemocrat_29]

5. Yeah, I know that Peterson's a DINO

(He's my rep), but the fact that they do vote for him for the House could be a sign that it is possible for Democrats to win there (or maybe I'm being optimistic since I live in one of the most Democratic corners of his district).

[goodhue]

6. simple

Kittson County is practically in Moe's back yard, which accounts for the 2002 numbers AND the 1998 numbers (remember Moe was lt gov candidate for Humphrey!). But Kerry like Gore will not win in Kittson.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

7. Just yesterday, I happened to meet a woman who

lives in Roseau County (that little blue one at the top in both maps). She's running for Dem state legislature up there, and she made three interesting points:

1) Record turnout at the Dem caucus. Still small, but they no longer fit around a single table.

2) She sees the issue that keeps the Roseau County folks from voting Dem to be guns. The NRA has convinced them that the Dems want to confiscate their hunting rifles.

3) However, being so close to Canada (they're much closer to Winnepeg than to Minneapolis), the residents are very aware of the Canadian healthcare system and in fact, the seniors regularly go to Canada to buy drugs. She said her mother saves about 60% that way.

Maybe a two-pronged approach, a real, non-wimpy healthcare reform package and strong assurances that rural people can keep their hunting rifles, would work up there.

[Sorwen]

8. the northwest and west central

I also live in Peterson's district, and it's fairly republican here. Look at neighboring North Dakota. ND is a very republican state who never votes for the democrat in presidential elections (I think the last one they voted for was LBJ), but both of their senators and their representative are democrats who've served multiple terms. So voting for Peterson is not necessarily an indicator of who we may vote for in the presidential election.

It's not quite as conservative here as in North Dakota, though. Most of the counties in Peterson's district voted for Clinton in 1996, and many in the northwest voted for Clinton in 1992 and Dukakis in 1988. So there's some hope. However, getting votes from the sparsely populated northwest may not be that important. After all, Moe and Humphrey both lost their elections while Gore won in Minnesota. It may be more important to pick up votes from the central part of the state and those green counties that voted for Ventura.

[ButterflyBlood]

9. here's a map of the senate race

since I'm not at school I can't use MavWeb and put it on my own server so I have to use this one that I can't direct link from, if someone else could upload it somewhere that'd be fine. I corrected the colors (Mondale blue, Coleman red) and the shading represents the percentile they were in, although I couldn't get the colors the same as above. Might I also add that my own county, Blue Earth (the one one county up from the southern border right in the middle that's a square with a triangle bitten out of it) only gave Coleman 48%, votes for Wellstone and the Green candidate would've filled the gap. I'm so embarassed for my county to be won by that asshat so I needed to add that disclaimer (thankfully, Coleman didn't even get 40% in my precinct :)) The grey county only had a one vote difference and in my view was too close to call. So make of this what you will.

http://www.instrife.com/board/attachment.php?s=&postid=735258

[Lydia Leftcoast]

10. There's nothing there

You'd better try uploading again.

[ButterflyBlood]

11. the senate race map

I hope it works here: