Most economists credit Bush's tax cuts (at least partially) in rebound

[papau]

The Bush MANTRA: the economy is strong, the tax cuts should be permanent and those opposed to that "are essentially saying they are 'going to raise your taxes

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-02-16-whatfixedit_x.htm
Most economists credit Bush's tax cuts (partially) in rebound
News analysis by Peronet Despeignes, USA TODAY

<snip>These economists also say tax cuts were just one of several influences that helped the economy out of its slump, and it's hard to determine how they rank. The other factors:

• Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve. Beginning in early 2001, the Fed began a series of cuts in short-term interest rates, which influence borrowing costs for credit cards, home mortgages and car loans. Short-term rates fell from a nine-year high of 6.5% in January 2001 to a 40-year low of 1% in June 2003..<snip>

•Government spending. Washington cut taxes over the past three years, but it also sharply increased government spending on everything from the military and homeland security to education and health care. Government outlays grew 20%, from $1.79 trillion in 2000 to $2.16 trillion in 2003.

"At least half of Washington's contribution to stimulus was in the form of more spending," says Martin Barnes, an analyst at the Bank Credit Analyst, a Montreal-based economic consulting firm.

• The sinking U.S. dollar. The dollar lost more than 20% of its value over the past year, its biggest drop in more than a decade, as the Fed cut interest rates and investors became anxious about terrorist attacks and America's growing deficits.

A falling dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper abroad and imports less competitive, giving U.S. manufacturing a boost. <snip>

[still_one]

1. Come here to silicon valley and ask them

[bif]

2. If the tax cuts had gone to the middle class...

and the poor, it would all have been spent and fueled a bigger and swifter recovery. The rich just put it in the bank.

[FloridaPat]

3. Interest rates influenced credit card borrowing?

I think unemployment had more to do with that and refinancing home mortgages. I've met people in the finance industry that say the big boom we've had the last two years was from people refinancing their homes - and now that money is gone. Credit cards are still charging 14-35%.

I have a friend who was paying the minimum monthly payments on her credit cards. They companies decided she was a credit risk and raised her interest to 27%! Now she can't pay!

I was unemployed 9 months last year and lived off my credit cards.

And as for the falling dollar, what do we export besides food? Not much I see that has the "made in the US" on it.

[JeebusH]

4. "falling dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper ...."

but isn't the trade deficit increases??? So who's buying the crap we make?

[LWolf]

5. Of course,

the tax cuts were one strong reason why the economy tanked in the first place.

[papau]

9. I agree - the marginal increase in interest rates caused by the deficit

expectation caused by the tax cuts were indeed responsible for the recession - and for the weakness of the recovery.

We have now tried this tax cut game twice - with Reagan we got a sever recession of 14 months and a modest recovery that cost 1.7 Trillion of new Debt over the 1980 debt level of $1 trillion - and for that we had Reagan'd average compound after inflation GDP growth of 3.37 per year versus Carter's 3.3%.

The Bush tries it and we have a 3 year compound average after inflation growth of 1.9% per year, with a recession that ended 28 months ago - We have had 28 months of Boom - of growth - of non-recession - and we lose 2 million jobs and GDP grows at 1.9% - worst since Hoover.

But Hoover was the GOP Commerce Sec in the 20's who believed Gov should be married to rich and corporate - and pushed that marriage after 1028 as Pres.

Now we have Bush who is also into this Gov/Business unnatural and against the public good economic marriage game - and getting the same results that Hoover, and Reagan, got before him.

[TreasonousBastard]

6. Just a quick note before I have to run out...

The spike in GDP for that astounding quarter last year was largely due to 90 billion in additional consumer spending. Consumers also got 90 billion in tax rebate checks in that quarter.

Exports rose largely due to sending building supplies to Iraq.

So, it'a an unsustainable blip.

I have to look up more current numbers, but most of our exports seem to be commodities. We sell logs and Alaskan oil to Japan, wheat to anyone who wants it... This is also unsustainable in what should be a mature economy. It's unsustainable in a developing economy,

Out largest manufacturing export is Boeing. It's huge enough to seriously affect the numbers. This means we have three problems-- the health of the international airline industries, Boeing's outsourcing to countries that require domestic production or assembly, and some really good competition from Airbus.

Arms sales are accounted for differently from other exports. IF we actually get paid for them, they are a major source of export income.

[BarbaRosa]

7. I think point one is the answer

Greenspan raised interest rates during the later years of Pres. Clinton's both regularly and sharply. Short-term rates fell from a nine-year high of 6.5% in January 2001 to a 40-year low of 1% in June 2003... Greenspan was working as hard as he could for the BFEE.

[Trajan]

8. What do you call an 'economic recovery' that ignores common citizens ?

Non existent ....

Are YOU better off now than you were 3 years ago ? ...

HELL no ...

Remember: .. the King and his Court revels in joy when the hard earnt tributes of his subjects is pulled from their posteriors: pence by pence, until nothing is left ...

The subjects cry foul: .. the King shouts for joy ....

[cosmicdot]

10. would these "most economists" kindly identify themselves

just for the sake of journalistic integrity ...

or is Ed McKelvey, an economist at investment firm Goldman Sachs, a firm which has contributed to Bush (as well as, to certain opposition (see opensecrets.org) ... speaking for 'others'?

at least the article should link to a report issued by "economists"

[flaminbats]

11. hmm, some voodoo economists give partial credit to the voodoo dolls...

Did they ever give credit to the 1993 tax hikes for the economic boom in the nineties?

But who said anything about jobs or proper accounting practices, hell this is economics man! :crazy:

[bigtree]

12. Trickle down

Trickle down give /em the business
Trickle down supposed to give us the goods
Cups held out to catch a bit of the bounty
Trickle down everywhere trickle down blood

-Trickle down, Bruce Cockburn
http://brucecockburn.lyriclibrary.net/

[cosmicdot]

13. just imagine how much food can be put on the family

if those 2 patties are added to the final product, manufacturing jobs on the rise, services became manufactured products
... I'm getting the vapors just thinking about this 'let's Charleston' Herbert Hoover recovery

workers need to check and see if service workers and manufacturing workers are treated equally and share any similarities and/or discrepancies to share with others