Thoughts on the Governor's Races

[mndemocrat_29]

My apologies for starting posts on the House, Senate, and Governor's races and for being long-winded. However, I feel that it's important to gain info on the races for 2004. If you have any information or thoughts on any of these races, please post them.

Open seats:

Montana
Unpopular Gov. Judy Martz is retiring and this looks like the Democrats best shot at winning a statehouse. 2000 Senate nominee is the clear-the-field candidate for the Democrats (Brian Schweitzer) and has been running an excellent race so far. Sec. of State Bob Brown will be the Republican nominee.

Washington
Gov. Gary Locke is retiring (hopefully to a future cabinet post) and the Democrats have a strong candidate in Atty. Gen. Christine Gregoire. Washington Republicans had quite a lot of trouble attracting a candidate, settling for a second tier candidate in St. Sen. Dino Rossi. Democrats have been doing very well in Washington, and with a popular senator running for reelection and a presidential race in 2004, Gregoire should have no trouble winning this.

West Virginia
Gov. Wise isn't running amid scandal, but Sec. of State Joe Manchin is such a high profile candidate that the Democrats should be able to keep this seat, especially with Democrats trying to win this tossup state.

Utah?
Whether or not new Gov. Olene Walker runs or not, this seat will be competitive. Scott Matheson, Jr., brother of Rep. Jim Matheson and son of For. Gov. Scott Matheson is running and will make this competitive. With states like Kansas and Wyoming electing Democrats likely, it isn't unplausible to say that Utah could join their ranks.

Vulnerable incumbents

Vermont
Vermont likes to keep incumbents in power, but Gov. Jim Douglas (R) can't be considered safe in a state this liberal. Democrats best shot at the seat would've been Rep. Bernie Sanders, but he's decided against a run. Should Howard Dean be the nominee for the presidency, this seat could change just because of turnout alone.

North Carolina
Gov. Mike Easley isn't unpopular, but considering the recent fates of Govs. Musgrove, Barnes, and Hodges, this Southern governor shouldn't be resting on his laurels. Already a slew of Republicans (including Mayor Richard Vinroot and State Sen. Patrick Ballantine) have been lining up to race against Easley. If Sen. Edwards is on the ticket, Easley could be helped immensely.

Missouri
This race, like all races in Missouri, will be competitive. Aud. Claire McCaskill is running in a primary against Gov. Bob Holden, and that could be close. Whoever wins that primary will go on to face Sec. of State Matt Blunt. A tossup for both races at this point.

Indiana
Gov. Kernan will be running against Mitch Daniels, a Bush-appointee. Kernan was always expected to run a strong race here and should continue to. Daniels has little name recognition and has been in Washington for many years, so Kernan will have the edge due to his years as Lt. Governor.

[NewJerseyDem]

1. My thoughts

MT: This does seem like a Schweitzer v. Brown race and I would give the edge to Schweitzer based on his impressive performance against Burns in 2000.

WA: I largely agree about Washington. Gregoire got a comfortable 56% in 2000 when she won the AG's race. She has experience and Washington seems like an increasingly solid democratic state after some flirtations with republicans in the 1990s. The republicans don't have nearly as strong a candidate.

WV: This state is still heavily democratic on a state level and Manchin got 90% of the vote in 2000 against a 3rd party candidate. He seems to be in a strong position.

UT: I would predict that Matheson will win this race. Democrats do win a lot of governor's mansion out in the Mountain West and Utah will become one of them again. The Matheson family has been able to win in Utah and are probably the only democrats that can anymore. The republicans don't have any very strong candidates it seems and I doubt that Olene Walker can win if she does run.

VT: Jim Douglas should be farely safe because most people won't hate the guy too much after only 2 years, however, Peter Clavelle is likely to be his opponent and will unite the Progressives and the democrats and considering that Douglas failed to get a majority in 2002 he will need to pick up votes to win reelection.

NC: I haven't heard much about this race. Nobody seems to say that Easley is unpopular but there is no reason to think that he is beloved either. The republicans may put up a strong challenge her but Easly should prevail.

MO: This governor's mansion seems to be very vulnerable. Holden is unpopular and the democrats will be very divided no matter what the result is of the primary. However, Matt Blunt is in a strong position and is young, which rarely hurts, so I think this race is the republicans' to lose. I guess that Holden will beat McCaskill though and lose to Blunt.

IN: The most recent poll showed Kernan leading solidly and he seems in a strong position. Unfortunately, it appears as if O'bannon's death is what kept this seat in democratic hands. However, Bush may make a few quick stops out to here when he is campaigning in the midwest just to help out his friend which will probably help Daniels in this heavily republican state.

[davidinalameda]

4. Manchin isn't a lock for the nomination in WV

and he has a history of not playing well with others

in 1996, he took his toys and went home after losing the nomination to Charlotte Pritt, and a Repuke won

[mndemocrat_29]

6. On Vermont

I do agree that Douglas will be difficult to beat. However, I think the time is right to start taking back the New England governorships (Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, are all in the hands of Republicans) and Peter Clavelle seems a strong candidate to do it. His primary opponent (Shumlin) just announced he won't run for governor, so now he has a clear road to the general election.

[PaDUer]

2. Don't be surprised to learn

that election 2002 was also hijacked!!

[leyton]

3. Bits and pieces about the NC races

I've actually met two or three of the candidates for NC governor, as well as Richard Burr (who is running for Edwards' seat)... ugh....

Anyway, as far as Easley goes: he has done nothing to make himself unpopular in North Carolina and he is not really aligned with the Democratic party nationally. I would say that he is a safe bet for reelection, except for that NC state politics has gotten a bit nasty in recent years, and it's really our fault.

First off, there has just been a major scandal in which the agriculture commisioner (Meg Scott Phipps, a Democrat, just like, I think, all the other statewide offices) was sent to jail for accepting campaign contributions from the company who holds the contract for the state fair. It's unfortunate, especially in that her father and grandfather were popular and well-loved North Carolina governors, I think.

I wouldn't say that this on its own would hurt Easley much, except that there's another scandal brewing this week pertaining to Democratic fundraising. Apparently, a state Transportation official told a set of county officials in writing that unless they made the appropriate donations to the Easley reelection fund, their county would not be prioritized for road repairs and transportation projects. This will throw into question the fundraising practices of the set of Democrats who have been in power in the state executive branch for many years now. It's unfortunate, and it reflects bad on the Democratic party, and it may reflect bad on Easley.

( On the plus side, this is cool: the field of Republicans running for governor includes a Edwardsesque state senator, a businessman, the former mayor of Charlotte (and nominee in 2000) and a county commissioner. Yet the state party chair (Bill Cobey, I think) decided that the field was nonetheless so weak that he resigned his GOP chairmanship to run. How about that? )

The other problem is in the legislature. The Democrats controlled the state House of Representatives until the 2002 election, when the Republicans gained control by a two-seat margin. Then, one Republican defected to the Democrats within days of the election, giving the two parties equal numbers. So even though Republicans won at the polls, they are now in a power-sharing agreement in the House where there are two speakers: one Democrat, one Republican. The defector is seen by many (myself included) as someone who was just looking for a juicy committee seat and was willing to leave his party for it. This is bound to anger a lot of Republicans.

I don't know how this will affect Easley's chances; he's fairly adept at keeping a low profile and distancing himself from these Democrats. But the Republican party is growing rapidly in membership in the state, and that, coupled with Bush's coattails in the state (or even Edwards, who would energize both sides), could very well hand the GOP the state legislature in full, even if we retain the governorship.

And that's just as bad, because North Carolina is growing in population and is just itching for another Congressional seat by the next census. There's already a whole series of lawsuits about the redistricting in the state, which is suspect, I guess (I don't really follow that story), so we could end up being harmed nationally by all this.

[rhite5]

5. Thanks. Bookmarking.

[mndemocrat_29]

7. Here's a good link to find current polling for governor's races

Some of the polls haven't been updated for a while, but they are updated much more rapidly as the elections near:

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm