Fineman's Bush Advantages changes one week after he writes column!

[papau]

I do like to see the the staying power of pundit wisdom. Today's lousy consumer confidence level would seem to already knock down one of Fineman's points!

http://msnbc.msn.com/Default.aspx?id=3738281&p1=0

For Bush, Saddam is Icing on the Cake
The President has many advantages in his bid for re-election
Newsweek
Dec. 17 - ....Bush is in a strong position as the campaign begins--and not just because we captured Saddam Hussein.

Solid (GOP) base...<snip>

Electoral College ..Because of population and geographical changes, Bush picks up a net seven Electoral College votes in a re-run of 2000.<snip>

Cash ... Bush-Cheney ’04...has raised $110 million since June, and has no primary opponent...Dean has some 550,000 names on its email list. “BC04” has 10 million.

The Economy The dollar is down, way down, against the euro. The federal budget deficit is growing nightmarishly. The world seems to be shouting “No!” to the U.S. economy. The unemployment rolls remains high, and there has been a net loss of more than 2 million manufacturing jobs. But the direction of things matters, and public confidence matters. The president (and Karl Rove’s) biggest fear is that the recovery will stall, or falter, this spring. If it doesn’t--and most predictions are that it won’t--the economy will not be the huge political negative that the Democrats had hoped for.

COMMENT: "confidence matters" - and Dec 30 report may not be good news.


War ...Presidents tend to win re-election in war time....

Incumbency ...If you’re an incumbent, you have a better than 2-1 chance of winning re-election. ...

Saddam (I like good spin on both sides of a possible outcome ..."There is at least the potential of an upside politically, if the interrogators over the next weeks and months can tease real info out of Saddam... If there is evidence of WMD or direct relationships with al-Qaida, the administration has a chance--a better chance--to buttress the original justification for the war. If they cant’ find anything, the trial of Saddam will underscore, at least, the virtue of having gone after him for the sake of simple morality.")

The South ..Trippi thought that Louisiana was one of the states that his man could win in a general election. Without the popular Breaux on the ticket? ....

Divided Dems ....the DeanWorld ..love the guy, and the UnDean one, where they see him as a disaster in waiting. The struggle over the tone and content of the convention will be intense--and not helpful.

AND I DO LIKE AN EXCAPE PARAGRAPH AT THE END! "Again, none of this means that Bush is a cinch. We’re more than 11 months from election day. Bush’s “re-elect” numbers are weak....It’s likely that election day in November will see a lower stock market and higher unemployment rate than existed on the day Bush took office. History shows that president’s don’t get reelected under those circumstances. Something’s got to give. <snip>

[polpilot]

1. Fineman simply got 'the word' to promote Bushco. He mistakenly

thought he was a journalist a few months ago and now he's back in his cage.

Dean '04...