Forcasting the political landscape on July 30, 2004

[Sinistrous]

Imagine, if you will, that the Democratic National Convention has wrapped up, the city of Boston is depressurizing, and the Democratic Party has nominated its candidate for President of the United States.

1. Will there be real unified support for the nomenee from the others who are striving so hard for this honor?

2. Have the politics-as-usual, practiced during the primary campaign “poisoned the well” to such an extent that unified support is impossible?

3. What are the potential platform positions that will cause problems for any of the current candidates?

4. Do you see any segment of the rank and file Democrats who will be unable to support the nomenee?

5. To what extent will disenchanted Republicans be able to support the nomenee?

6. Is there any likelihood that intra-party backstabing will continue even though the nomenee has been selected?

7. What will be the trend of the polls (Bush v. Dem.) once the Democrats have made their choice?

[placton]

1. HERE'S MY CALL:

1. Will there be real unified support for the nominee from the others who are striving so hard for this honor?
ANSWER: ALL BUT LIEBERMAN WILL SUPPORT STRONGLY

2. Have the politics-as-usual, practiced during the primary campaign “poisoned the well” to such an extent that unified support is impossible?
ANSWER: NO, BUT IT WILL OTHERWISE BADLY HURT THE DEM NOMINEE

3. What are the potential platform positions that will cause problems for any of the current candidates?
ANSWER: ANTI-WAR, BUT THE MEDIA WILL PORTRAY ANY DEM'S POSITION AS BAD.

4. Do you see any segment of the rank and file Democrats who will be unable to support the nomenee?
ANSWER: NO

5. To what extent will disenchanted Republicans be able to support the nominee?
ANSWER: UNCLEAR, ASK AGAIN LATER (per magic 8-ball)

6. Is there any likelihood that intra-party backstabing will continue even though the nomenee has been selected?
ANSWER: DINOS WILL REMAIN DINOS

7. What will be the trend of the polls (Bush v. Dem.) once the Democrats have made their choice?
ANSWER: DEM WILL LEAD AFTER CONVENTION - AFTER THAT - WHO KNOWS?

[Eurobabe]

4. another year older, sigh

that's my birthday. :(

too old for Bu$h.

[jmaier]

2. I'll give it a shot

1. I think there will be supportive words from the losing candidates but probably not a lot of pro-Winner activism. BTW, this is usually the case. Most supporters of other candidates will probably vote for the winner even if they are less energetic about campaign support.

2. No. Things will go on pretty much as usual in the GE.

3. Pro Civil-Unions could be a problem. Being cast as pro-Tax is a GE killer. If the "soft on defense" label is made to stick that is also going to hurt. But in the final analysis, it's going to be about the perceived character and stature of the candidate.

4. If it's Dean, I'd suggest that he stop referring to philosophically DLC folks as "the Republican Wing of the Party." I suspect Lieberman will lose the more Green(ish) democrats. I'm not saying that any of these folks would work against the nominee ONLY that there is some chance they could be discouraged enough to stay home.

5. It will happen. Rethugs will turn out in high numbers for Bush regardless of how they feel about his positions. They want to WIN and they want to keep loading the courts (appellate & SCOTUS).

6. Looks like #2 somewhat restated.

7. The Dem will start out well behind Bush but will gradually trend upward until the Rethug convention when Bush will probably bounce about 5%. The final outcome will again be roughly 50/50 but the problem is how the 50% democratic votes get tallied -- they have a real electoral challenge ahead.

[polpilot]

3. #1 Yes!!! The disdain for Shrub will be at its height & The Dean Machine

will have united all necessary factions by then #2 No problem here #3 No problems here. The dual problems of an illegal, unnecessary war gone waaay bad with mounting economic fallout will pave the way for an easy Democratic victory #4 Not an issue. Clever campaigns know they won't get every vote and every segment #5 Review Dean's Vermont elections where crossover Repub vote was evident #6 Venting & whining will gradually subside #7 Overwhelmingly Democrats as blood is spilled by the activated Guard from units nationwide...Shrub will be in hidiing by then.

Dean '04...

[Demeter]

6. Bet You Bush Won't Take A Month Off Next Summer

He'll be real busy covering his ass.

[UrbScotty]

5. My Fake British newspaper article (quotes are made up)

Boston, July 30—Eighteen months after having been considered a longshot candidate for his party’s Presidential nomination, Howard Dean, the former Governor of the state of Vermont, was nominated by the USA’s Democratic Party to face President George W. Bush in the November 2 Presidential election.

Dean kicked off the home stretch of his presidential campaign at the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston Thursday, rallying what used to be a deeply divided Democratic Party to what he hopes is a victory over President Bush.

“While Bush and his buddies campaign on fear and hate, we Democrats continue to be the party of hope and optimism,” Dean told the over 4,000 delegates at the Convention, the forty-fourth quadrennial national convention the Democratic Party has held.

“I’m tired of being divided by race, I’m tired of being divided by gender, I’m tired of being divided by sexual orientation,” said Dean, whose tenure as Governor of Vermont was highlighted by the April 2000 passage of the only ‘civil unions’ law in the USA.

Even Dean’s former rivals for the Democratic nomination praised him. On Tuesday, Vietnam veteran and US Senator John Kerry, considered Dean’s biggest rival during the early months of the campaign, commented that the world needs Howard Dean to make it peaceful and safe.

Vice-Presidential nominee Bob Graham commended Dean for being willing to hire well-known foreign policy experts. He said that Democratic Party needs to be strong on defense and foreign policy issues in order to beat Bush. Graham, a highly-respected United States Senator and himself a former candidate for the nomination, lives in Florida, an important state in Presidential elections and the epicenter of the 2000 Presidential election controversy.

Another of Dean’s former rivals, Rev. Al Sharpton, who is black, lauded Dean for reaching out to the Democratic Party’s base. Democrats have been accused in recent years of being too supportive of Bush administration policies and ignoring the party’s base, often considered to be women, minorities, and workers. This was blamed for the Republican Party’s gains in the 2002 Congressional elections.

Early post-Convention polls show a significant swing in Dean’s favor. Bush led Dean in most polls by ten to 14 points a week ago, but a poll released Friday showed Dean leading Bush by six percentage points, 44-38%. Experts fully expect another close election like 2000.

[Bucky]

7. Great questions. Plus my lame answers

1. real unified support for the nomenee?

Absolutely. Even Lieberman is on board. Professionals all.

2 & 3. Has the campaign “poisoned the well”? / potential platform problems?

Not at all. Wounds will be licked by July, if not earlier. The only possible convention fights will be over retaining the middle class tax cut and how the platform addresses the civil unions/dumb-ass amendment controversy

4. Do you see any segment of the rank and file Democrats who will be unable to support the nomenee?

Rank and file: no. But most swing voters will go with Bush over Dean. If it's Clark, some of the base will be reluctant and the Greens will have a talking point that 98% of the country will effectively ignore.

5. To what extent will disenchanted Republicans be able to support the nomenee?

Only the extent to which we nominate Clark, Kerry, or Lieberman. No one else has much cross over appeal to rank Republicans.

6. intra-party backstabing (after) the nomenee selected?

None whatsoever

7. trend of the polls (Bush v. Dem.)

The Dems will get a big post convention bounce, but most of it will be worn away once the Republican convention is done with. The Republicans will market a sharp turn to the center in time for the election, but play the "line in the sand against terrorism" angle for full effect to play up the Bush-as-Churchill strong warrior appeal that helps them.

It won't make that much of a difference. The Bush bounce will be much smaller than the Democrat bounce. The three month campaign wil be incredibly bitter and divisive and the moderate voters will be turned off. I project a drop in overall voter turn out unless the Democrats can transcend the nastiness and show the negativity to be a Republican problem.

Either way, by Halloween we'll either be a 50-50 nation with the October surprise making a critical difference, or we'll be watching Bush cream Dean on character, inexperience, and half a dozen culture war wedge issues.

I hope I'm wrong. But I'm not.

[November 2004]

8. My opinions:

1. All democrats running for the nomination, realizing what is at stake, all will provide real unified support, the obligatory attack on Lieberman notwithstanding;

2. They are professionals. It's like with attorneys. They look as if they despise each other during the trial and then have lunch. It reminds me of Dean and Sharpton getting into it at a debate, but afterwards, they were chummy and smiling.

3. None. I think the DNC is sneaky and vague enough to avoid this.

4. I am very concerned that some of the idealogues may not be able to get behind what is most likely to be a more centrist nominee.

5. This is still in play, however, I think some republicans will indeed vote democrat...especially if their children and/or spouses came home from Iraq in boxes.

6. See answer 2.

7. I think we should not pay attention to the polls, work like hell for the democratic nominee and pray that BushCo isn't so craven as to actually pull some sort of 'terrorist' deal or 'oh, look, I found Osama' deal in the Fall.

In other words, I believe we have a tremendous chance at taking the WH in 2004!