Full list of House retirements

[mndemocrat_29]

How many members of the House have retired this year? Is this more or less than previous years?

[mndemocrat_29]

1. Here's my list

Republicans:
Doug Ose
Scott McInnis
Porter Goss
Johnny Isaakson
Mac Collins
David Vitter
Nick Smith
Doug Bereuter
Richard Burr
Cass Ballenger
Pat Toomey
Jim DeMint
Bill Janklow
George Nethercutt

Democrats:
Cal Dooley
Peter Deutsch
Ken Lucas
Dick Gephardt
Karen McCarthy
Brad Carson
Joe Hoeffel

Am I missing any? Which are the most likely to switch parties?

[Frodo]

3. Shouldn't be many switches left.

That was more likely to happen with redistricting last time around. Perhaps one or two in TX who aren't ready to retire yet. I wouldn't expect anything else unless one side or the other has a massive victory next November.

[LimpingLib]

8. Lucas and Hoeffel's seats will be very tough to hold.

Amanzingly aside from Pa 15 our only real chances will be in special elections this year which included Janklows seat but all will be tough.

Unless the Supreme Court disrupts the entire system (wont happen , it would disrupt 100s of incumbents , might lead to REAL reform,repeat wont happen) by declairing the whole line drawing operation the shame that it is then we will probabilly loose another 6 seats this cycle we frankly cant afford to loose.

[NewJerseyDem]

9. Well that is pessimistic

We have a lot of oppurtunities. First of all, we should hold Hoeffel's seat. It is pretty solidly democratic so Hoeffel should of done better in 2002 in that district. Also, Nick Clooney is running in Lucas's seat so we have a chance there.

We aren't going to pick up PA-15 because that would probably require having a candidate and we don't really have one yet.

But we have an oppurtunity in CO-3, NE-1, and WA-5. Even though those districts lean republican, a conservative democrat can win there. Also, Bill Young may very well retire in Florida and we can pick up his seat. Billy Tauzin may retire or resign and his seat very narrowly voted for Bush and KY-6 special election is a strong oppurtunity for us. A lot of republican incumbents are very vulnerable like in GA-12, GA-11, AZ-1, CO-7, IN-8, IA-2 and there are other seats where we have a chance. I don't think that this cycle will be that bad. It could be but I think we have fewer vulnerable seats than the republicans do.

[LimpingLib]

10. I heard every white Democrat but Chris Bell

is toast in Texas if the new lines stand. That makes up 7 seats right there I think (Sandlin, Turner ,Edwards , Hall, Stenholm , Doggett , Frost , Lampson makes 8 ). I am aware of most GOP vulnerabilitys but then again there are Pomeroy's and Moore's and Mathison's on our side as well. Of all the seats you mention only PA-15 , CO-7 and GA-12 were won by Gore (the last 2 by wide margins) I think. Some 240 seats in the House were won by Bush less than 200 by Gore.

I was hoping we swept the open seats (bring GOP down to 227 from 229) then hoping Tauzan quite then hoping most close races go our way in Nov 2004 . I kept ignoring the Texas situation almost in a strange denyal. Sadly the Texas redistricting scheme isnt too nightmarish to be true , we really look to be screwed beyond belief. Hopefully it sticks out so sorely or stinks so badly that the Supreme Court cant help but be awakened by its stench. Anyway baring a major court decision we must now hope for our looses to be cut and give up the hope of gainning any seats. We might be able to start 207-227 w/ Saunders with a couple special election wins but if the Texas decision stands (and it likely will)then consider a net Dem loss and GOP gain of 2 in November to be lucky for us.

[NewJerseyDem]

11. Texas is a problem

Chris Bell and Gene Green are both safe. Stenholm still has a chance. Hall is hardly even a democrat since he says he will vote for Hastert if it is the deciding vote so I don't really care very much if he loses. Doggett will run in a mostly hispanic district against at least one hispanic in the primary. But, a democrat will win in that district. I thought that there was going to be a new black-majority district created but I'm not sure if will be one. I also think that Chet Edwards still has a chance. We will lose seats but fewer than 8.

I think that Pomeroy, Moore and Matheson will be favorites. Pomeroy won by 5 points in 2002 and has been around for a while. Moore and Matheson also have increasing experience and evey time it will be harder for the republicans to beat them. Many of the vulnerable republicans are freshman who didn't have very good opponents in 2002. I think that this cycle is tossup with neither side gainin or losing much. However, if the presidential race goes badly or very well then things could change.

[LimpingLib]

13. On Doggett.

Is this majority Hispanic district for Doggett a district against another Dem incumbent? Because if so then its a loss.

I agree totally on Hall and I forgot Gene Green, but now I think we covered all white Dems. So of the 9 seats you are saying 3 are safe (seats that is, individual Democrats might loose to a newcomer in the primary granted)?

We will loose no more than 6 ?

[NewJerseyDem]

14. It is Doggett's own district

His home city of Austin was split apart and he was put in a very republican district (TX-10). However, he will run in a different district (TX-25) that includes a portion of Austin that he doesn't live in, but I guess he will have to move there. It isn't against another incumbent though. So, no matter what happens we will hold that seat even though I hope Doggett wins.

[mcd1982]

16. Sandlin...

from what I have heard, has the best shot of any of the Ds that will have their district redrawn. I live in Sandlin's district, and he is a very popular Congressman, but this will be a tough fight.

As an interesting side note, his district manager has beaten both Karl Rove and Lee Atwater in elections...

Matthew

[Frodo]

2. Surprisingly low on both sides. Rollcall

"Ten months into the 2004 election cycle, both House Democratic and GOP leaders are surprised by the historically low levels of retirements by sitting Members so far."


This is particularly surprising on our side since Gephardt has been incredibly successful (over the last four elections) in holding our retirements to a minimum. Every year it's "hold on for just one more cycle so we can take the House back".

I fear there is a massive retirement wave waiting to happen if it ever becomes clear that we CAN'T take it back in the near future. Nobody like being in the minority when they could rake in the bucks as a lobbyest. There may be more riding on the TX redistricting case than we've assumed.

[Freddie Stubbs]

17. There are so many safe seats

due to the recent gerrymandering by both parties. It isn't as much of a hassle to get reelected as it used to be.

[Le Taz Hot]

4. Some info on the Dooley race

There are currently two Democrats running for this seat (CA-21).

Lisa Quigly: Dooley's campaign manager. Strict DC insider, trying to appeal to "under 40 mommies" (I'm not kidding). As an over 40 woman who chose not to have children, really pissed me off. She's too slick in her Beltway speak and her Armani suites -- the farmers around here are WAY turned off by her, plus, they've never really heard of her and she's never held political office. She's also at least as conervative as Dooley (who endorsed Lieberman).

Jim Costa: Former California State Senator and well-known locally. He got into some trouble several years back for getting busted trying to pick up a lady of the evening. (My own first "look" at him was his bare backside -- long story.) Anyway, he's more in tune with the farmers around here and doesn't come off as a sheister. Costa is conservative as well but not as much as Dooley/Quigly.

Costa was endorsed in a LANDSLIDE at the California Democratic Council Caucus and at the California Democratic Party Caucus.

[leyton]

5. Richard Burr

is running for Senate in NC.

It will be good to see Cass Ballenger (R, NC-10) go. This is the guy who blamed the breakup of his long marriage on the fact that his Washington condo is located next to an Islamic organization. Go figure.

[zorkpolitics]

6. best opportunities in 2004

2004 should be a good year for pick-ups in the House. So far House retirements have been less than normal, but twice as many Republicans have announced retirements: 15 Republicans vs 7 Democrats. Open seats historically present the greatest opportunity for change (in 2002 about 20% of the open seats changed party), whereas incumbents are rarely defeated (only 4 incumbents were defeated by challengers in 2002). Of the open seats, 5 Republican and 3 Democratic seats are at high risk of turn-over since they represent districts that were either narrowly won in 2002 (less than 54%) or the district was won by the other party’s Presidential candidate in 2000.

Here is my list of top seats for a turnover from Republican to Democratic: CA-3, CO-3, MI-7, PA-15, SD and those most at risk for turnover from Democratic to Republican: KY-4, OK-2, PA-13

[goobergunch]

7. CA-3 is out of reach, and PA-15 we don't have a candidate for

PA-15 ought to be a toss-up, but unfortunately we don't have a candidate.

However, we have a good shot at KY-6 and we may even have an upset possibility in NE-1.

I think we should also be concerned about CA-20.

[NewJerseyDem]

12. I doubt we can win MI-7

That would be a surprise. Democrats have been hoping that republican ex-st. senator John (or Joe of something like that) Schwarz will switch parties and run as a democrat. That is unlikely but if that happens we could have a chance. He got 19% in the republican primary for governor in 2002. If he doesn't run then I think that we will have trouble in that district.

[nator311]

15. we can also win

AZ 1 if we get a better candidate this time. CO 7 is also a strong possibility for a dem pickup. Also, it looks like we have a very good candidate to run against Jennifer Dunn in WA 8. OK-2 should be safe since the son of former Sen.Boren is running.