Make Your Predictions: The Future of the Printed Book

[RainDog]

will it soon be like vinyl? something collectors like for the experience but that most people won't bother with... and if so, how near or far into the future?

I've been reading The Case for Books, by Robt Darnton. The book expands on some articles Darnton wrote for the NYR of Books, so I'm already familiar with a lot of it.

but the compression of time for change that technology has created is really stunningly illustrated in the case of books.

I just wondered what you all thought about the future of books.

[trof]

1. They'll be around for the foreseeable future.

I'd still much rather settle down with a book in my hands.
I can mark it when I need to do something else and come back to it later.
I can flip back a few pages to clarify something I missed.

Yeah, I'm sure you can probably do something similar with kindle and the others, but it just isn't the same.

A book can go ANYWHERE.
No batteries needed.

[Bucky]

2. Books are so much faster than the internet. Looking for info online is like flirting.

A book is more like a relationship. It's a commitment. The same way TV & DVDs didn't kill cinema. It only slightly changed the market.

[Orrex]

3. Books will be around as long as people appreciate the aesthetics of books

Books and book-like publications play a role in so many aspects of society that it's difficult to envision them truly disappearing.

Books are ubiquitous and functional in a way that vinyl records were not.

[RainDog]

4. I have to admit a bias toward the physical book

so, of course the answers so far are ones I want to believe.

I haven't used the new platforms.

one thing that I don't like about them is that you don't own the work you bought. you're licensing it. you can't share it as easily.

[TK421]

5. Books aren't going anywhere...you'll be able to enjoy them for years to come

I don't think that books as we know them will be phased out in our lifetimes..

[RainDog]

6. I think a lot of textbooks will go digital

because they're so expensive to produce, have short life spans, and, b/c of economies of scale, are far, far too expensive for students when they could have a cheaper electronic version.

I don't know how deep the backlist is on e-books at this point - anyone here who does know?

[lazarus]

7. depends

Amazon claims almost half a million available. B&N claims a million for the Nook. I don't know about the Sony e-readers, which, I believe, use Borders.

That's not counting the free stuff you can find online in ePub format. (Actually, I think B&N is counting that, after all. They brag about all the free stuff available.)

I use the Kindle and love it, but I also buy books. I buy just as many books as I always did, the Kindle just makes more books available to me. For instance, I don't know where I would have found the complete works of HP Lovecraft for $5. So it's just added to my to-read stack.

[RainDog]

8. yeah, I can see good things about it for people

and, no, I don't think books will disappear anytime soon.

what bothers me about the current set up is the "instability" of access - and lack of same for people who cannot afford the latest gadget.

Will libraries put money into the new platforms and then not have money for regular old books for people who most need access to public libraries?

that was a point Darnton made about academic journals. they have become so expensive (and at this point, or at least a couple of years ago point) the publishers made (univ.)libraries buy both the electronic and paper version of journals - tho that sort of writing is most esp. the type that is good for electronic publishing - quick access, easy to download one paper out of many, which is how most people use an academic journal - and the prices kept going up b/c no one else was going to be able to supply the journals (that are, btw, mostly published with free content from scholars) that the libraries had to make budget decisions - they had to have the best academic journals - so book acquisition was cut.

we're always making trade offs with market realities...

[lazarus]

12. I think the extra expense for libraries

should be minimal. Most of them already have computer networks. E-pub books shouldn't cost as much as regular books. I know our libraries have been slowing down new book acquisition for some time now, and don't offer e-books (to my knowledge).

I agree that e-books are especially good for textbooks and journals. For textbooks, I would hope the day will come when all the student has to buy out of a book is what's required for the syllabus. I hated having to buy a hundred dollar book and only used 1/4 of it.

[RainDog]

17. the big issue at this point

is that google will control access to books that have been digitized that are now in the public domain (and some that aren't, exactly.)

as Darnton noted - this was how academic journals became so expensive - no on else could provide them.

-- I'm talking about academic libraries, as far as this issue goes, not public ones, tho it would have an impact on them too - but more people in academic libraries want access to texts that are out of print and/or scarce.

this issue prompted a class-action suit against google. France sued to claim the equal right to distribute their declaration of independence, The Rights of Man!

however, I agree with you about the textbook thing. they're also so heavy!

a reader that also linked to outside reference sources would be ideal for colleges.

I can easily imagine that students will buy a reader at the beginning of college that is pre-loaded with vpn to dial into libraries, get their books by downloading them - but what happens at the end of a semester? what if some want to keep a "book?" would they be allowed to keep it forever or just rent the contents for a semester?

[nickinSTL]

20. If libraries have been slowing down book acquisitions...

(and I have not seen that, but to be fair, I don't monitor library acquisitions in any way)

It's probably got a lot more to do with the slashing of library budgets by governments in a time of budget crises.

I don't know where your library is, but most libraries of any size offer e-books. Many smaller libraries simply can't afford to.

There are currently lots of issues surrounding e-book accessibility for libraries, all of which I am not up on.

Personally, I like reading on my PDA, but I only get books from free sources like Project Gutenberg. My libraries can't offer e-books in a format compatible with what I use. And I have no interest in reading a book on my laptop, or even worse, my desktop.

[RainDog]

22. the issue of the cost of academic journals has been around for a while

the largest research u's have HUGE dbs of academic journals. they have had and DID have to make choices. yes, budgets are always being cut, it seems.

but the cost of journal access has been a big issue. smaller schools cannot afford to have as many journals b/c of the cost. public libraries can afford to have some journals, but nothing near the scale of any u. library.

when I've been talking about this, I have been thinking about diff. types of libraries and their offerings... the digital issue of one for academic libraries, mostly.

public libraries have had to spend money on blockbusters that patrons all want at the same time, then, once the rush is over, the libraries are left with large amts of (the same) books they don't want or need to stock on shelves.

the demand for the newest title in book form has cut into budgets for other books. this happens all the time, believe me. Public libraries exist to serve the public. so they're going to offer the new best seller in volume and if a smaller title doesn't get picked up... it just doesn't.

[csziggy]

35. Public libraries have access to book "rental" businesses

These companies buy the block busters, "rent" them to the libraries sometimes for limited periods, then when the big demand is over, they sell them as remaindered books. Our small public library did that when I was a kid. They had special shelves for those books so the patrons knew that they were not in the permanent collection and would be sure to check them. Plus at our library the lending period for those books was shorter than for the permanent collection to give more patrons a chance to check them out.

I've bought some of those books from the discount tables at Books A Million in the last several years. Hard back books with library dust cover wrappings selling for under $5 tend to stand out.

One way that books will survive are the low cost "books on demand" machines that are being used these days. These relatively compact machines can print and bind a 300 page book in four minutes. For those out of print, out of copyright books, or for new books that are low demand, these are a great choice for people who want a physical copy rather than an electronic copy. The machines are not all that expensive and are getting a wider distribution today.

http://instabook.net/jm1/

http://www.ondemandbooks.com/hardware.htm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1173013/A-novel-idea-The-machine-print-book-minutes.html

http://www.harvard.com/bookmachine/
http://philobiblos.blogspot.com/2009/10/harvard-bookstores-print-on-demand.html

http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/09/google-books-publish-on-demand/

[RainDog]

36. interesting! thanks!! n/t

[janx]

9. Awwww...

We'll always have books. Ten or fifteen years ago people were speculating that books might go away, but there's something about falling asleep with a book that people still like; they like the smell and the feel of it in addition to what the book contains. ;-)

[Radical Activist]

10. In the future everyone will eat pills for dinner instead of food!

Remember that one?
Some things stick around because people enjoy it even if the technology exists for something else. The talk about books being gone is a little silly.

[janx]

14. It is, indeed!

:toast:

[RainDog]

28. where's my teleporter! n/t

[RainDog]

15. I hope you're right

but there's a BIG push now to make people think that e-books are the shit.

I was constantly spammed by amazon over xmas shopping season to buy a kindle. they sold e-books at a loss to get people to use the kindle platform...then claimed they had sold more e-books than books, iirc.

but e-books only make up 10% of the market at this time. but... think about how quickly things have changed for blockbuster, etc. compared to netfliks. the two are the same thing, but not. same with watching tv on tv v computer. I watch most tv on computer these days. I'll go weeks w/o turning on the tv.

and there are pros to using a reader - like so many titles in a small space.

e-books are what have publishers and distributors panties in a wad at this point in life. who knows, kindle may be the betamax of readers... Sony.. gasp...

I'm not an early adopter.

I didn't even own a microwave until I inherited one in the mid-1990s. I was fine using my gas stove. I still love my gas stove. it can do things a microwave can't. but I like to use the microwave to heat up stuff. when my microwave breaks, however, I don't think I'll replace it. it's not essential to me. it's not what cooking is about, to me.

[Radical Activist]

11. And vinyl records are back. n/t

[gmoney]

16. But I'd say CDs are in danger of disappearing

[Radical Activist]

18. No dout.

Artificially high prices for an inferior product. There's no reason for CDs. People who want the album artwork will get vinyl. Everyone else gets a cheaper download that's more portable.

[CatholicEdHead]

13. Staying around a while

Sure there will be a growth in electronic media, but the paper printed page is not going away anytime soon. Once you own a paper book, you have a feel of more ownership than the digital file.

[RainDog]

21. I feel that way too

and I LOVE old books because of things people left behind in them.. marginalia, postcards... not the reading experience alone.

I also LOVE book illustration/covers... but I also love illuminated manuscripts and the only place I can go to read one of them is my local rare book library.

the 15th c. was the big turning point for hand v machine printed books. in response to the machine-printed books, hand printers started doing really extravagant illustrations - trompe d'oeil on the page. amazing stuff, really.

the british library site "turning the pages" has some amazing examples.

[Redstone]

19. Won't go away; printed books don't need batteries.

Redstone

[RainDog]

24. woohoo! that means I'm immortal too!

I don't need batteries.

...most of the time! :)

[Old Troop]

23. I think printed books will survive,

there is something comforting about holding a book in your hands. The same applies to newspapers. My daughters, both in their late 20s, go to the local library about once per week to get new books. They have mastered the art of ordering new books from the library and realize they don't have to pay $30 for the latest edition. My grandson (4 yo)loves the library -- he chooses the biggest and most colorful books to carry out.

[RainDog]

26. I think the tactile experience of books for children is something worthwhile

and children's books are, imo, far and away the "safest" sort of everyday title that will survive in book format - people are not, hopefully, going to let a baby have an ipad to chew on. (not that they let them chew on books but.. it happens.)

[Old Troop]

32. I do agree. We read to our kidsconstantly when they were little

and they still prefer to curl up with a book to relax. My mother, who was an elementary teacher for 50 years, said that if a child would curl up in you lap and listen to a story being read, there was no issue with hyperactivity (the curse of children in the 80s).

[RainDog]

34. I saw a study a couple of weeks ago

that said having a home library is the equivalent of having a parent with a u. degree, for kids. so, yeah, one of the best things a parent can do for a child is read to him or her.

[Dr Morbius]

25. We know the energy consumption we currently have is unsustainable.

There has to be a tipping point, after which the cost of using energy will be more than most can afford. After that point, print will return to a higher prominence. I think books will continue to decline in popularity and then rebound.

[RainDog]

27. I've wondered about that issue

how much silicon valley pollutes v someone using/making ink (and making paper pulp.) I don't know the carbon footprint of one v. another.

personally, I would LOVE to see a return to hemp paper for docs that people want to survive. wood pulp paper is much more acidic and prone to decay.

[begin_within]

29. Google plans to vaporize all existing printed books.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/google-announces-plan-to-destroy-all-information-i,1783/

[RainDog]

30. lol n/t

[kayakjohnny]

31. How secure is the future of the printed book?

There's probably a book being written right now and soon to be published.

About the future of the printed book.

And it will be a best seller.

[RainDog]

33. it's called The Case for Books, by Robert Darnton

tho it won't be a best seller in publisher terms. that's reserved for books about sparkly vampires.

[Odin2005]

37. Naw, they will be around for a long time.

E-readers like Kindle and Nook are good alternatives for cheap paperbacks, magazines, and public domain stuff, but for a pricey non-fiction book I definitely want an actual physical book that I own.

And plus, physical books don't need batteries.

[BurtWorm]

38. The ones that are printed will become very expensive and specialized

The rest will be e-printed. We'll all be reading them on tablets or phones. Last year I saw no e-books in the subways of NYC. This year, there's always at least one per coach. Sometimes there are several. But most people are still reading books in print, if they're reading. We'll see what the proportions are next year. I think print books will become rarer each year and e-book readers less rare. I think the industry wants us to switch, and we will. We're already in the process of making the switch.

[RainDog]

39. I agree

early adopters - and then the rest of us.

I think the industry that wants you to switch is not the publishing industry, however. it's amazon and other digital entities.

But I think a lot readers have very happy feelings about/toward physical books - so I don't think they'll be extinct.

Even now publishers release special editions before a first public printing for some books/authors. This will probably still be the case.

But, yeah, overall, it seems like physical books will be like vinyl. -- probably with more continued fans b/c they're a lot cheaper and you don't have to have special equipment to use them.

we'll see how it all plays out.

[unpossibles]

40. as someone with a painting degree....

I'll just say that outdated media seldom completely go away. They will be less popular than downloads, but a lot of people will still want them.

[eppur_se_muova]

41. We still dig holes with shovels, we still read books.

They're not going to disappear, but mass market "disposable" books are likely to decrease in number.

I still think they should sell the Top 100 pocket paperbacks from vending machines. Save the floor space and salespeople for real books.

[Lionel Mandrake]

42. Printed books will become less common.

This will take a long time. Software manuals (which were printed books) have almost disappeared. Phone books are in decline. Dictionaries will become digital.

You can already subscribe to an online version of the Oxford English Dictionary. If the online version used unicode instead of graphics for Greek letters, and if the price were reasonable, the old-fashioned version of the OED would soon go out of print.

Most people do not read books. But a substantial minority will continue to read printed books for a very long time.