HH's NFL Power Ratings and prediction...

[HawkerHurricane]

I feel pretty good about how my power ratings predicted the playoffs, I am at 80% accuracy (8 correct in 10 games). The power ratings currently predict a New England Patriots victory in the Super Bowl.

BUT

The two incorrect prediction both involved the Carolina Panthers; by the ratings they should have lost twice now... Beating St. Louis (in St. Louis) and Philidelphia (in Philidelphia) has thrown my confidence in my system through the wringer.

The system says 'Patriots'. My guts say the system cannot keep the Panthers out of it.

I will be making no bets for this one. I'm afraid I'd lose.

[KG]

1. sometime the formulas don't take those intagibles into account

and the panthers intangible is their will to gut it out. got admire that quality.

[YNGW]

2. 80% is pretty good, but let me ask you....

... How do you typically do against the spread?

[HawkerHurricane]

3. Predictions were straight win/loss

no considerations of point spread.

[YNGW]

4. I realize that...

...but do you ever do your picks against the spread, even if it's just at home for fun or something? And if so, how do you do?

[HawkerHurricane]

8. Nope, I didn't check...

And my local paper uses the Caliente line, not the Vegas, Reno, or Atlantic city ones...

(Each area 'biases' there line, depending on thier audiance... Vegas in favor of Los Angeles teams, Reno in favor of SF Bay area, Atlantic City in favor of northeast teams... Caliente in favor of San Diego...)

[Loonman]

5. Panthers are going to be outplayed

The NFC was lame and sad this year.

[Zero Gravitas]

6. Go Panthers!

I was going to root for the Pats, but after Brady let himself be used as a prop in the SOTU last night I'm going support the other team.

[Caution]

7. I'm biased

but i was pretty amazed at how well your ranking played out through the season. Even I thought the rankings system had the Patriots too high.

I won't lie and say that the "Cinderella" story on the Panthers doesn't scare me, but even though there have been a few upsets in Superbowl history, overall it is quite rare. I can't wait to see what happens!