Advantage: Red Sox

[WilliamPitt]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55633-2004Oct22.html?sub=AR

For Clean-Cut Cards, This Could Get Hairy

By Thomas Boswell
Saturday, October 23, 2004; Page D01

When the World Series opens in Fenway Park tonight, everything about the St. Louis Cardinals will be a known and predictable certainty while every aspect of the Boston Red Sox' mental and physical condition will be a complete mystery.

With St. Louis, you know what you'll get. A clean-cut, immaculately tailored, 105-win team in those classy Cardinals uniforms that will take the field with a modern murderer's row of sluggers, enough speed to manufacture runs, a superb defense, a smart manager, a deep bullpen and no weakness whatsoever, except the biggest potential weakness of all -- a mediocre starting rotation.

With Boston, you get a team of inspired idiots with injuries and insomnia. They may be so fired up that they'll thump the Cardinals as an afterthought. After all, they just beat a team with Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle in the outfield, an infield of Lou Gehrig, Billy Martin, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez with Yogi Berra catching and Reggie Jackson at DH. Wow, how tough can Woody Williams, Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis look after you've whipped the ghost of Thurman Munson? Or, of course, the Red Sox may be so pooped they'll plop. Imagine Terry Francona's pre-World Series team meeting: "Okay, who wants to pitch? Just raise your hand. Okay, so none of you can raise your arms. No problem. Can anybody throw submarine?"

(snip)

The Red Sox may have one other edge. The Cards had a fifth starter, Chris Carpenter, all season. He's injured now. As a result, they're stuck with keeping Jason Marquis in their rotation. He was excellent all year (15-7) but was a mechanical mess against Houston. The Cards have no option but to run him out there. Meantime, Boston's worst late-season pitcher, Lowe, suddenly finds himself a full-fledged hero after winning Game 7 in Yankee Stadium on two days' rest.

Though the Cardinals' starting pitching may have its hiccups in this World Series, the total St. Louis product will be quality. The Cards were the most consistently excellent team in baseball all season and they've played like it in October.

The mystery team is the Red Sox. They finished their September run ablaze. Then they torched the Yankees with the best comeback in postseason history. Are they still on fire or just burned out? Are Schilling, 37, and Martinez, an old 32, physically able to finish the team's 86-year-old unfinished job?

Finally, the AL won home-field advantage at the All-Star Game. In a World Series so close that may be the crucial swing vote.

Pick: Red Sox in seven games.

...more...

[indigobusiness]

1. This has been a GREAT post-season

I'm just hoping it continues, whatever.

[candy]

2. The Sox ARE a scruffy lot but the clothes don't make the man!

Go Sox!

[DemOverseas]

36. Game One

We got to see the International version on Sky Sports this afternoon. It is a watered down version with the dull parts taken out. I enjoyed Tyler's singing and the planes ect. I was joyous to know the outcome before watching the game. I think this is the only time in my life that I have experienced high blood pressure......when I have watched the Red Sox in playoff season in the past. When my youngest son was first introduced to Major League Baseball, he thought we called the final series *World Serious Baseball*. I think this was correctly put!

[Droopy]

3. I don't think there is an advantge for either team besides

home field for the Red Sox. I think they are evenly matched on hitting, both are excellent, and pitching, both are mediocre. I'll not be so bold to try to predict a winner, but I wouldn't be surprsed to see this series go 7 games.

[Mojambo]

4. I'm sticking with the Cardinals in seven

The Red Sox will be hurt badly by losing the DH in NL parks.

The righty/lefty power potential in the Cardinals lineup will force on overworked Boston bullpen to work even more in matchups.

I do worry about Isringhausen at the back end of the St Louis pen though.

In the end I think Larussa outmanages the over-thinking Terry Francona and the Cardinals out execute the Sox.

MVP - Jim Edmonds.

[indigobusiness]

8. Your analysis mirrors mine except

your assertion that losing the DH will badly hurt the Sox...Bah, hardly. How? Because Ortiz will have to play first twice? He can manage that as well as Pujols, on any given day. Because Arroyo will have to hit? He's used to that.

How this badly hurts the Sox, I don't understand.

[Mojambo]

9. Ortiz is a much worse 1B than Pujols.

Ortiz's range factor was 9.47
Pujols's range factor was 10.57
Ortiz's zone rating was .797
Pujols's zone rating was .904

And even if they were comparable in defensive ability (which obviously they are not) Ortiz has only played in the field 96 games in the last 5 years. Pujols played 150 games at 1B in 2004 alone.

Ortiz at first base will hurt the Red Sox, the only question is how much.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

22. Huhuh. He said "Poo-holes."

[indigobusiness]

23. We'll see.

The statistics you cite are insignificant over a 2 game span.

[Mojambo]

24. All it takes is one bad play at first base

to turn a series around.

Ask Bill Buckner (who was a much better first baseman than Ortiz)

The fact is that it is quite easy to see how forcing Ortiz into the lineup at 1B COULD hurt the Sox.

[indigobusiness]

26. Pujols could just as easily make a critical blunder

the difference in the two is not that significant over a short span.

[Mojambo]

29. The fact is that Ortiz is MORE likely to make the blunder

You're not arguing that point are you?

Sample size does not play any role in this argument.

Your contention was, "Because Ortiz will have to play first twice? He can manage that as well as Pujols, on any given day"

This statement is simply NOT true, and every objective measure of defensive ability bears this out. I would submit that the likeliness of an Ortiz mistake is even greater because of his lack of familiarity with the position.

Now, the Red Sox could get lucky and have it not hurt them. But his lack of ability is significant no matter the span of time.

Of course if the Red Sox keep pounding the ball the way they have the point will be moot.

[indigobusiness]

30. Your point that Ortiz is a poorer defensive first baseman is a fact.

Whether or not the loss of the DH will hurt Boston BADLY remains to be seen.

My point was that it is an overinflated assumption.

Statistically, I don't see it as much of an edge. But, it could prove to be.

[indigobusiness]

32. No, the odds of it impacting the team

is relative to the opportunity to do so. So, the span of playing time is significant.

His potential to hurt the team defensively is higher than Mientkiewicz's, but not necessarily the likelihood.

[Cha]

5. Interesting! Go Red Sox!

I like Jonathan Alter's take on the Red Sox winning, too.

"I’d argue that the Red Sox come-from-behind victory over George Steinbrenner’s Yankees is an omen of what will (OK, might) happen on Election Day.

The real struggle is already over. Even if the Red Sox lose the World Series, they have already fought the power—and won.

And make no mistake: Bush-Cheney ’04 is the power—the team with the home-field advantage, the team that represents continuity, the team that the smart money is still betting on.

The team that choked?

Yes, some Yankees players (and many fans) are Democrats, and plenty of Red Sox players and fans are Republicans. But aesthetically, the Yankees are a Republican team, even if their color is blue, and not just because owner George Steinbrenner almost went to jail for shenanigans he pulled with Richard Nixon. And the Red Sox are a Democratic team, even if their color is red, and not just because a part-owner of the franchise, Tom Werner, is a Democrat."


More at..
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6301121/site/newsweek

[indigobusiness]

7. All true, but then there is that pesky CURSE

Cards in 7.

[LSdemocrat]

6. The Sox will suffer an emotional let down after the beating the Yanks

For the Cardinals, it's all about winning the series.
For the Red Sox, on the other hand, the media, fans, and players have been so obsessed with beating the Yankees, that the World Series may be a let down, causing them to lose their intensity.

[OneBlueSky]

10. some things are just meant to be . . .

Red Sox in 6 . . . winning it at Fenway . . .

Go Sox! . . .

[pinto]

11. Red Sox in 6.

And pitching will be the key.

[Rockholm]

28. Sox in Six for sure!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Zomby Woof]

12. No gutsier team around

Than the Fenway Gang! GO SOX! :toast:

[FlyByNight]

13. I'm a long time Sox fan...

but I wonder if they have anything left after the ALCS. Last year's ALCS probably took something out of the Yanks as the Marlins won the series in 6 (it was 6, right?). I can only hope for the best and that the starting pitching holds up reasonably - especially Schill's ankle.

The Cards are terrific and well balanced. One-hundred and five wins is impressive.

Go Sox! :thumbsup:

[WilliamPitt]

15. The Yankees had 103 wins

and today they're playing golf.

[FlyByNight]

19. True

This gangs seems to have the "intangibles" in their favor. Should be a great series.

[HuckleB]

17. The Marlins were simply the better team at the time.

Anyone who watched them in the latter half of the season and through the playoffs had to figure the Marlins would take the Yanks. Remember, the Marlins fought seven hard games against the Cubs before getting to the series last year, and the same goes for the Cardinals this year.

The series looks to be more of a toss up to me this time around.

[FlyByNight]

18. I think the Marlins last year had the best record...

in baseball in the second half. I like to think the Sox took, at least, something out of the Yanks in last year's ALCS.

[Presidentcokedupfratboy]

14. As a Mets fan...

I want to thank the Sox for defeating the GOP of Baseball, the Yankees.

Sox in seven.

[HuckleB]

16. I'm just so happy that it's not Astros-Yanks...

that I'm not sure if I care who comes out on top. What I really want to see is another seventh game.

Yeah, underneath it all, I'm pulling for the Sox to finally complete the job, but I won't be sad if the Cards go home with the title.

[Radical Activist]

20. What a moronic "analysis"

The Cardinals are a much better team that have been playing better all year but we're suppoed to believe the Red Sox have an advantage because they have "mystery." WTF does that mean? It means he couldn't come up with any REAL reasons to believe the Sox will win.

Cards win in 5 games.

[HuckleB]

21. I have a mystery feeling, myself.

It'll either be Cards in five or Sox in seven.

It's all just talk, anyway.

The real reasons will be explained on the field.

[WilliamPitt]

35. Better win the next four games, then

:)

[Skittles]

25. I have already told Matcom

if the Red Sox don't win the World Series, I'm doing a double ass-kicking - you and him. :o

[Sparkly]

27. Sox in that first inning

reminded me of Kerry coming out swinging in that first debate! :D

[Bake]

31. Card in seven - choke on it, Will!

Luv ya, man, but baseball is BASEBALL, dude! Suck it.

Bake

[WilliamPitt]

33. .

[Droopy]

34. I bet you're feeling good tonight

That was a good game. Even though I'm rooting for the Red Sox, what I really want to see is a good series. What happened tonight changed nothing in my thinking that this will be a 7 game series.