Latest on Ivan

[Cheswick2.0]

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.
*****************************************************

The predicted path has moved. Good news, it could go out to sea if the path moves a bit farther to the right.
Bad news, it is a strong category five hurricane and even if it breaks up a bit over cuba, it is going to be a bad one and it could hit the only part of florida that has NOT been effected by charley and frances.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/090853W5.gif

[Systematic Chaos]

1. This is still about 5 days away....

And remember that at least Frances weakened considerably before making landfall, and that is something they didn't predict to the degree it happened until about 36 hours before landfall.

this one could be a monster, or it could simply just be much ado about - well, maybe not nothing - but certainly not much. Let's just wait and see... and hope for the best or at least something not too extreme.

[Spinzonner]

2. Or it could be Ivan the Terrible

[Cheswick2.0]

3. another picture

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

[skooooo]

4. Ummm.

The projected path in the image doesn't look like much of an improvement to me. Either way it's going to hit Florida.

[spinbaby]

6. Just a little to the right...

...and it might veer harmlessly over the Atlantic rather than hitting Florida. Doesn't look like there's any chance of it missing Jamaica and Cuba though.

[skooooo]

20. i see what you mean..

...lol..duh sorry

[Cheswick2.0]

22. yes I am affraid that cuba and jamaica are going to get hit

unless it goes straight north from where it is and hits Haiti Instead.

[shanti]

46. nope....

and i had plans to vacation in jamaica in november....looks like they will probably be cancelled....poor jamaica :cry:

[Zuni]

50. the worst part is

that most of Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba and many parts of Florida have homes and buildings entirely inadequate to hold up in a major hurricane

[shanti]

58. agreed

if you have no money, you build with what you have available: zinc, bamboo, etc., but even concrete block homes aren't immune to ivan's fury.

[Cheswick2.0]

5. another picture

[trumad]

7. That last black dot is where I am... Oh the Humanity!

[RamblingRose]

8. You must be near my mom. She still doesn't have power since Frances hit

on Saturday.

[trumad]

10. Orlando

This is the path of Charley... Charley kicked O-Towns ass big time...

[RamblingRose]

13. She's east on SR50 in Titusville.

[Cheswick2.0]

23. the path has shifted back to the left since this morning

When I posted this thread the path was taking Ivan right to the south tip of florida and curving around to leave florida at slightly north of Ft Pierce.

This pictures are interactive

[Cheswick2.0]

26. very strange

the cloud temperature seems to have suddenly increased by about 60 degrees.
This morning the graphic was dark red and pink.

[Pithlet]

36. Probably sunlight

It's just a guess on my part, but it looks like all the clouds, not just the hurricane, get cooler, and it seems to sweep from east to west, with the sun.

On edit, this was meant for post 35, in answer to Cheswick's question of why the clouds get cooler.

[Misunderestimator]

9. What? Last night it was headed to Alabama...

:wtf:

[trumad]

11. You need to sleep with one eye open....

[Misunderestimator]

12. LOL... Good morning, handsome

That's my slightly improved avatar... now that's MY eye in there :D

[trumad]

17. May I make a suggestion?

Everytime I post to you I feel that I am posting to a beautiful smart woman.. Really I do....

But then I read your replies or posts and I see that nasty ass chin in you sig line. I hate it. It shoots my mojo down big time. I know, I know,,,,it's a political statement...But.....

[Misunderestimator]

19. LMAO... I was kinda thinking the same thing...

it IS rather repulsive, isn't it? For you... I'll go make a different political statement. :)

[trumad]

21. It really is...

Beauty is skin deep, but with that bandaid on the woman, it makes her a P I G Hog!

[Ripley]

16. I went to sleep hearing that too...

They were saying it was moving west towards the Gulf. I don't want Florida to get it again, but I really don't want it here.

Wish it into the Cornfield, son.

[matcom]

14. Mrs Matcom Is In Clearwater

and i am damned concerned.

spoke to her this morning and suggested she change flights and get out Sunday (instead of Tuesday)

she says the weather channel is saying its gonna hit the east coast. i wish she would get out of there but doesn't look like its gonna happen

[Misunderestimator]

15. She needs to try to get out of there. It will be hitting on Tuesday

according to the latest projection. I'm sure the Tampa airport will be closed on Tuesday if it stays on target. It's worth some extra cash to get out. If I didn't live here, I'd bug out.

[trumad]

18. Yeah..I agree... get out now or don't get out.

[Cheswick2.0]

24. even if it hits the east coast

they are still going to close all the airports.

[Burma Jones]

25. The 920 mb pressure puts it between Camille and Andrew

In intensity, a potential whopper!!!!!!!

[Zuni]

47. If another Camille struck Florida now

the results would be catastrophic.
Camille's winds reached 215 mph, and had 25 foot storm surges. With most of southern FL around sea level, this would do unbelievable damage.

Florida, already crippled by 2 large hurricanes, would be blasted into the stone age if hit by a Cat 5 monster.

[Pithlet]

27. My mother in law is trying to get out now

She's in Ft. Myers. She's going to come stay with us. She's had it with hurricanes. We didn't even have to try to talk her out of leaving this time.

[Cheswick2.0]

28. I am glad to hear that

IF you look you will see that the path has changed again. It keeps going back and forth.

[Pithlet]

29. It's changed again

Just in the last hour. They've moved it even farther left. I don't want to wish the storm on anyone else, but I hope it continues that trend rate because Florida has already suffered enough.

[Misunderestimator]

30. Yes, it has... Here's the projected path now:

Maybe it can keep swinging west... then avoid the Texas coast entirely, but somehow devastate a certain ranch in Crawford. That would be sweet.

[Zynx]

31. NOAA Track automatically updates.

No need to post new tracks in same thread.

[Misunderestimator]

34. Yes, I realize that.... after I posted. Thanks.

[liberalpragmatist]

32. Will it still be CATEGORY 5?

I'm not a weather expert, but it doesn't seem to me like it could maintain that kind of intensity by the time it hits Florida, since it's still a good few days off.

But what do I know.

[Bluebear]

33. They are predicting a 4 at Florida landfall

But, 4, 5, both still horrible.

[Cheswick2.0]

35. Can anyone explain why the cloud temp fluxuates?

Last might and early today the cloud temp was -85. Today it dropped to -20 and now it is getting cold again.

[Pithlet]

38. My guess is heat from sunlight.

All the clouds are getting cooler after the sun has set, not just the hurricane, and it loos like it sweeps from east to west, like the sun. But, it's just a guess on my part; I really don't know that for certain.

[Cheswick2.0]

42. That makes sense

[2Design]

37. Well it looks like it might hit the USA Concentration camp...

maybe like grenada all the prisoners would be free......and then all hell will break lose for the torture that has been done to them in Christ name.....

[7th_Sephiroth]

39. not wanting to wish it on anyone else

but i hope it hist sexas or luisiana, i really need to go down to south florida and do work

[DemWitch]

40. I still think Ivan is going to hit New Orleans...

just a gut feeling I've had since I first saw it...

[Pithlet]

41. Oh no

That is the same gut feeling I've had for awhile. I hope we're both wrong; failing that, it weakens to a cat 1 or 2.

[Zuni]

51. It doesn't look like it

unless it veers way off to the west over Cuba

[yankeeinlouisiana]

55. Oh, please don't say that.

I'm in New Orleans. Most of New Orleans is under sea level. The area I'm in is above sea level, but not by much. I've gotten my pictures and important papers together just in case. My husband is in Berlin and I'm not loooking forward to evacuating with my children when he's out of town.

:scared:

[Cheswick2.0]

43. kick

and a slight weakening with a shift to the right again, taking Ivan over nothwest florida.

It should strengthen after Jamaica and then weaken again as it goes over Cuba. Then if weather conditions are right it will get stronger again over the warmest waters of all which are in the gulf before it hits florida.
My completely unscientific prediction is that it will hit florida somewhere on the west coast or the keys. It will be a strong category 3 or 4.

[Zuni]

52. I agree

It is going to pick up momentum in the warm waters. It will be very powerful over Florida.
I think this is going to be the worst hurricanme season Florida has ever had. This one is going to be a monster when it hits them.

[Misunderestimator]

44. Hey, trumad... you got a wind machine or something... Now it's headed

directly for me instead of you. Cut it out! ;)

[trumad]

45. It will come back to me...

I can only blow for so long....

[Misunderestimator]

48. Ah.... So THAT's why...

you're straight... :D

[trumad]

56. I think that what keeps me straight....

[Cheswick2.0]

57. I can't beleive these people thought looking like big Dick-heads

was a good idea.

[jab105]

49. Here's another interactive...Alachua county wa 125 miles from Frances

center...and we got creamed, we are tree city USA...I have one tree in my roof, another took down my fence...and I've been digging out all week...no school for a week, we've been told that we might not have spring break because of it...I pray that this thing turns north fast...I'm very worried...if 65 mph winds did so much damage, I cant even fathom what 125 mph winds would do to our beautiful city!!

[Cheswick2.0]

59. This is an interesting grahic

has it changed? I can't tell.

[flvegan]

53. Ivan knocking on my door Tues, 8am...

The black dot is about 30 miles due west of me. Hoorah.

[Misunderestimator]

54. We must be neighbors... at least that black dot moved West

since the morning projection... it was right on top of us before.