Hurricane Frances Thread....

[Rockholm]

Disclaimer: I AM A SERIOUS WEATHER JUNKIE.

OK, the storm is not even near land yet, but looking at its movement and the direction it is heading, South Florida could be under the gun near the end of next week.

I am leaning that a category 5 hurricane bearing down on Miami will lead the news towards midweek. (sorry george, your speech may not get much airplay)

Weather Underground is a good place to see the details.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_strike.html

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical

[finecraft]

1. I looked at the Historical Track Map

and didn't see Andrew on it. Didn't Andrew follow kind of the same path that Frances has been on so far?

[indigobusiness]

2. This map is ominous

[StClone]

7. Here is another very good site

I like the lay out though it has proven slow to load.

Golden Triangle Weather
http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm

[bigwillq]

20. That's a very cool map

I'm a major storm junkie, like Hurricanes, tornado

It's devasting when these storms hit land but I love following their path.

It looks like South Florida could really take a big hit.

I hope people take notice ASAP. It seems like everyone always waits too long and like a DUer said below then people are stuck in traffic for hours before their head for dry land.

[Rockholm]

4. Pretty much.

[starroute]

10. Andrew was on the historical map a couple of days ago

But that map only shows storms that passed over the the same location as the current one. Andrew took a sharp jag to the northwest before turning back to the west, so it didn't go through Frances's current location.

However, the similarities are still scary. Here's a map of 1992 storm tracks whish shows Andrew's path.

[SW FL Dem]

27. The names are the same as this year except

for Andrew, which was Alex. The seven named storms for 2004 have been Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances and now Gaston.

[pacalo]

3. Thanks for the links -- I live just outside of New Orleans.

[shawmut]

5. High resolution satellite loop

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=FloaterImagery&product=Float1Loop&prodnav=none&pid=none

[NMDemDist2]

29. there's nothing on that weather loop

clear skies all around :shrug:

[msanthrope]

6. This one could be very bad---

Looks like an east coast of Florida hit, and one hopes that Jeb is prepared.....

[jpak]

18. It could hit South Florida AND the Panhandle.

The double whammy.

I am really ill-at-ease about this one.

I have my stuff and my cat ready to go.

If this thing gets into the Gulf, I'm headed to Tuscaloosa (friends and Dreamland BBQ there).

November 30th can't come soon enough for me this year...

[lazarus]

24. Dreamland!

My mom just flew from Alabama out here to San Diego for my birthday, and she brought me two slabs of Dreamland ribs and a jar of sauce. I'm in heaven! I haven't had Dreamland since the mid-80s, when I went to the University.

[tedoll78]

8. Hate to be so blatantly political..

but if this thing hits on Friday morning, it may be God trying to say something about the Chimp.

"George - as punishment for using My name for your own selfish purposes, I will dampen your convention bounce with wall-to-wall coverage of a Category 5 hurricane bearing-down on Florida's east coast. Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday news will be a carbon copy of CharlieTV(tm). Back-off, Chump!"

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Great, I'm vacationing in Miami until Sept. 10

During Charley I was outside Orlando, visiting my sister. She lost power for 14 hours and had one uprooted tree take out part of her wooden fence.

I better start keeping track of this. I have tee times all next week.

[1monster]

11. If Frances continues on her currentl path, avoid the rush and leave early.

I'm not joking. Several years ago, Hurricane Floyd hovered off the east coast of Florida and my husband decided that we were going to evacuate. An acquaintence of his offered us a house on the west coast of Florida.

Traffic was unfreaking believable. On I-4 (approximately 125 miles long) if traffic moved at all a lot of the time, it was only at five to ten miles an hour. It took us seven hours to transverse that 125 miles. Had Floyd struck Florida, it would have done so while we were on I-4 and tens of thousands of people would have been killed.

And it wasn't just I-4, I-95 and I-75 were bumper to bumper too. I had neighbors who took an hour to go ten miles on the lesser traveled roads. They turned around and went back home to sit out the storm, which barely touched parts of Florida with the tips of its fingers and went on to devastate the Carolinas.

[wolfgirl]

12. Well

didn't the freepers say that the RNC delegates needed to beware because of the demonstrations/agitation by the "Weather Underground"...could this be it!?

[Rockholm]

13. Oh, that IS good.

I have often wondered why they chose that name for a weather website.

[shawmut]

14. Better watch out for Gaston

It's a lot stronger than they were thinking earlier ...

[Cheswick2.0]

22. Is that where Gaston is now?

Is it going to hit South Carolina or North?

[shawmut]

23. Yes. The current forecast track has it going into South Carolina

And it's getting stronger:

[lazarus]

26. What are the odds

That Gaston is going to affect New York City?

[shawmut]

15. Frances is now a cat 4

Not looking good for Miami next week if this forecast track comes true:

[Zynx]

16. Keep in mind that "center tracks" tend to be inaccurate.

The probability cone is exactly that, as Charley showed pretty clearly.

Still, this makes Charley look like a little baby, so hitting *anywhere* in Florida would be really, really bad.

[barb162]

17. BUT

what is the likihood it will even hit the US??? That it wont swerve up north back to the Atlanticbecause of high pressure systems over land. Do you check the NOAA site a lot? I like that one.

[starroute]

21. They expect a ridge to keep it from turning north

"Frances remains on track and appears to be making a turn back toward the west-northwest. Otherwise... there is no change to the previous track forecasts or reasonings. Most of the NHC model guidance agrees on gradually building the subtropical ridge westward to the north of Frances throughout the forecast period.

<snip>

"Frances is embedded in a low-shear environment with excellent outflow in all quadrants...including an outflow channel to the north. The SSTs between 62-68w longitude are near 29c...so at least some additional slow intensification should occur. It is possible that Frances could even reach near-category 5 intensity at any time during the forecast period..."

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200406.disc.html

[fishnfla]

19. She'll turn to the NW

and she'll peak and weaken

Here's hoping

[SW FL Dem]

25. Thanks! I'm a big Weather Underground fan

Needless to say, we are keeping a very close watch on Frances! We are on the opposite coast, but if Frances is a 4 or 5 even we are in danger. Usually NHC/NOAA issues updates every 3 hours (2am, 5am, 8am, 11am, 2pm, 5pm, 8pm and 11pm. Weatherunderground picks them up almost immediately, but now the focus is on Gaston. I am anxiously awaiting the 11pm update.

[SW FL Dem]

28. The 11pm update shows a slight turn to the north

Good for us, not so good for those on the east coast of FL and northward.

[BlueCollar]

30. my folks went through Andrew

they're not far from Cutler Ridge...

Their golden wedding anniversary is Sept 11...I've already made arrangements to be off work for that week Sept 4 -12

I'm planning on flying down...but if it looks like it's going to get ugly I'll be driving...anyone interested/need to carpool down for this PM me...

I've got a bad feeling about Frances...