Will "Smarty Jones" win the Belmont -- and thus the

[DemBones DemBones]

Triple Crown? If not, what horse will win the Belmont?

[PragMantisT]

1. Hell yeah! Smarty looks unstoppable at any distance.

My bet: $2 exacta #9 (Smarty Jones) and the field. Might break even if Rock Hard Ten and Purge don't place. If they do, I lose.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. His breeding screams that 1 1/2 miles is not his best distance

Smarty's sire, Elusive Quality, was a brilliant sprinter, but his best distances were 7 furlongs up to a flat mile. The female side (Smile) displays more stamina.

Prior to the Derby, virtually every respected pedigree handicapper had serious questions regarding Smarty's ability to stay 1 1/4 miles. It's ridiculous to ignore that now, and assert Smarty will simply gobble up added ground and effortlessly increase his margins.

The Preakness was phenomenal, a 118 Beyer figure. Smarty has the ideal push-button running style and should dictate the Belmont without a frontrunner to track. If he can manage a leisurely 24+ for the quarter and 48+ for a half, it's conceivable he could shorten the race and dominate again, a la Pimlico.

But that is extremely unlikely, especially breaking from the outside post. Smarty Jones and his hedgehog pedigree will be laboring down that killer Belmont stretch. I'm just not sure anyone in this pathetic field is competent enough to run him down, with stretchrunners like Tapit and The Cliff's Edge out with physical woes. Even a second-stringer like Ten Most Wanted from last year would have had no trouble dismissing Smarty at 1 1/2 miles, let alone Empire Maker.

[RobinA]

7. One of the Things

I love about Smarty is this hedgehog's ability (so far) to blow the doors off pedigree snobs. One of the main reasons I'm rooting for him.

He's already nosed out my least favorite horse, Conventional Wisdom, so here's hoping Smarty leaves him in the dust on Saturday.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. Conventional Wisdom has been awesome in the Belmont

RobinA, sounds like you probably rooted for Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem and Funny Cide as well. This pedigree snob rooted against, and BET AGAINST, every one of those phony feel good stories in the Belmont. I cherish racing history and want to maintain the integrity of that legendary list.

I concede Smarty Jones may be the real deal. If he wins the Belmont, even unimpressively, I'll salute him as such. As a sports bettor, I never undervalue the word unbeaten.

But that sprinter pedigree forces me to wager against Smarty on principle, albeit smaller amounts than typical. The field is weak minus The Cliff's Edge, my pick to win the Belmont, and an off track definitely favors Smarty.

I took +2.75 that Smarty will lose, and +4.75 that he will be beaten by at least 4 lengths.

[Westegg]

2. My local bookie/liquor-store owner sez it's can't miss, baby! (n/t)

[osaMABUSh]

3. yes. apparently his toughest race was Belmont

[boneygrey]

4. Smarty

If he runs balls to the wall like he has, no doubt, he'll win. Go Smarty!

[MrSlayer]

6. Yeah, Smarty has no competition.

He's going to win this race by a long, long way barring any kind of health issue. If you watched the last race he was still running away from everyone when the race ended.

He's such a beautiful horse too.

[THUNDER HANDS]

8. no

I used to live, literally, across the street from Belmont Park. I know this track well.

Smarty Jones will not win it. I'm not betting on him.

The Belmont is a gauntlet and SJ will wear down before the end.

I don't know who I'm picking, but it's someone with 10-1 odds or greater. :D

[emad]

9. Smarty to annihilate the competition on Saturday!

What a babe! What a name! Of course he'll win the Triple Crown! His victtory in last month's Preakness was a staggering 11 1/2 lenghts, and that was some field he decimated.

Only one eye, Smarty, but what legs!

Try this for a winning double: Smarty to win Belmont, North Light to win Epsom Derby (in the UK) also this Saturday. Current odds slashed to 11/4 - 5/2 2nd fav, backed down from 14/1 before winning his Derby trial last month, when he was cut to 8/1. UK smart money has poured in following defection of Aidan O'Brien's Yeats, One Cool Cat and other notables, all hors de combat, hemhem...

News from Ballymacoll Stud, in whose pale blue colours he runs, is that there MAY be a surprise change of silks announced this Saturday, just before the race. Champion trainer Sir Michael Stoute has awesome strike rate in the Derby, as has the horse's rider, champion-jockey Kieren Fallon.

Main danger may be Snow Ridge (bought by the Maktoums last year from Ballymacoll) and Percussionist.


Edit: as previously discussed on DU:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=105&topic_id=1137536

and
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=105&topic_id=1137536

[GOPisEvil]

10. All I need to know...

...jockey Gary Steven is NOT making the flight from Europe to ride Rock Hard Ten. Believe me, if Gary Stevens thought he had a chance to win a Triple Crown Race, he'd make the flight.

I'm a little worried about Smarty's outside post position, but I don't know how much speed is directly inside him. If the horses to his left are not speed burners, then it should be no problem for him to get near the lead and stalk. Remember also that he'll have the entire field in his vision.

The trick will be to figure out which horses are coming second and third so that money can be made.

[mosin]

11. Post position

With only a 9-horse field, the outside post position is a good thing for Smarty. They will have a clear view of the entire field. Barring injury, I don't see anything stopping Smarty. He's a 2-5 favorite for a reason.

[HalfManHalfBiscuit]

27. But Solis is now on Rock Hard Ten

The Cigar killer. Remember the 1996 Pacific Classic when Solis on Dare and Go upset 1-9 favorite Cigar ending the record bid.

I smell a repeat. Although Smarty Jones may go off 1-10.

[indigobusiness]

30. Rock Hard Ten has the stuff...

if Solis finds the route.

Depends on Smarty's trip, and the pace...too hot, and Pat Day smokes 'em.

[LynneSin]

12. FINALLY!!!!! Philly is going to have a parade on Broad Street

We have a champion!!!

[GOPisEvil]

13. The best news:

you won't have to get a convertible for him. He can trot down broad street himself!

I'm guessing the party will be out at Philadelphia Park.

[Corgigal]

14. Yep Smarty is going to win this one

I was lucky enough to be at Belmont when both Slew and Affirmed joined the triple crown league. I just decide today, alas not to spend around 1500 dollars to travel to NYC this weekend to watch Smarty do it live. Teach me for ever leaving New York. Maybe I will be lucky to go to the Wood Memorial in October and have Smarty still running.

However when I saw Smarty run his Preakness all I could think of is that he stretches on the track like a predator not prey. I saw cheetah stride in this horse. Go ahead, look again.

[emad]

15. A second opinion from Thespoof.com:

http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s6i4022

[indigobusiness]

32. LOL too funny...here it is in part

Part of his rise to success includes recuperating from a fractured skull. Due to the extraordinary ability of this horse since that accident, horseracing officials are worried that desperate trainers may take to purposely fracturing their horses' skulls in the hope that it will improve their performance.

"Forget about drugs," said a racing official who spoke to me under the condition that he wears a fake nose, eyeglasses and moustache, "we could be seeing broken skulls by the dozens in the barn areas of racetracks across the world."

A down-and-out trainer who would not be identified unless I paid him $20, said, "My hammer is ready. If Smarty Jones wins the Triple Crown, I will be swinging it on the heads of at least four of my worse horses."

If skull-cracking becomes the next new fad among trainers, it could solve the ongoing drug problem in horse racing, but, as noted veterinarian Calias Bolt said, “Horses can die from having heavy objects slammed against their skulls.”

And, as famous handicapper Bo Bo Finfinder said, “The first horse to win after having his skull cracked will only encourage other trainers to do the same. Then, the sport will have to consider making skull-cracking legal and putting a notation in the program so that players know just which horses have been struck.”

“The case of Smarty Jones is peculiar,” said Bolt. “Trainers should realize that not every horse that has recuperated from a fractured skull can necessarily run faster. At least not until studies have been done to show otherwise.”

The Center for Equine Performance has suggested such a study. Dr. Bolt said he would be interested in becoming a part of that study. “I would start with rubber hammers,” he said, “and horses no younger than three. And the impact of the blow would be increased daily until a fracture surfaced. Plus, we could get a feel for how hard a blow could be fatal.”

[Justpat]

16. He'll win.

If he gets the first six furlongs in 1:13 or so, he'll win.
When Slew won he got the six furlongs in 1:14 but the track was
muddy and deep that day.
The track will be fast on Saturday. It is supposed to be partly
cloudy and mid seventies. I am stabled at Belmont so if there is
anything you guys would like to know about track condition or anything, let me know.
I'll keep you posted.

[Corgigal]

17. I am stabled at Belmont

Really ? Got an extra bedroom? Just a question from one old broad to the other. Ha.
Can you get near Smarty ? Can you get pictures? Are you going on Saturday?

[Justpat]

18. We are watching it from home.

I have an extra bedroom, but it's not exactly the Ritz.
We don't have a horse in that day so we are not going to fight
the crowds.

[Corgigal]

19. Very sweet of you

My daughter and I were thinking of staying in NYC and taking the LI railroad Belmont pass on Saturday. I've been to only 2 triple crown Belmont races and both times they won. I have been telling the family , as a funny, it's not the horse it's me being there.

Again, nice of you old broad and I wish I knew you earlier.

[Justpat]

22. Send me a note via e-mail.

If there is anything I can do to help with information about
Belmont Day I'd be glad to do it.

[indigobusiness]

24. You 'Old Broads' both sound like great gals...

horse racing ain't just "The Sport of Kings".

Here's hoping for a Triple Crown, but I'm betting Rock Hard Ten, and wondering if a longshot to Show might be the best bet here?

Cheers!

[Justpat]

26. Rock Hard Ten looks good

but he is a sulky type in the am. Maybe he gets his game face on
in the afternoon, but he isn't too crazy about training in the
morning.

[indigobusiness]

28. Tempramental horses are easy for me to love...

when they have his kind of stature.

Watching him balk at the gate nearly upsets my chili. Hope he loads easy this time. What a beautiful, albeit green, horse. And WHAT a runner!

Good luck to you...and good luck to Smarty.


edit---Welcome to DU

[Penndems]

37. He'll take it, no doubt about it

He's a spirited horse. Just look in his eyes!

Can't wait to see the parade in Philly . . . :)

[Awsi Dooger]

33. I agree with that 1:13 assessment

And without Lion Heart or a rabbit, that's probably what we're looking at.

That's exactly right regarding Slew's Belmont, Old Broad. Billy Turner said he wanted to unleash Slew, "and it would have been awesome," but the track was deep and slow. Cruguet basically asked Slew to jog the mile and a half.

A year later, the dawdling pace was hysterical. Affirmed and Alydar ran the first quarter in 25 flat, half in 50 flat and 6 furlongs in 1:14 flat, on a very fast track. True, they came home extremely fast and in tandem, but I always thought that opening 6 furlongs cheapened the race, and made it considerably less awesome than racing legend allows.

[GOPisEvil]

20. Take the Smarty Jones quiz!

How "Smarty" are you? :spank:

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/sportsnation/quiz?event_id=751

I got 7 correct! :bounce:

[indigobusiness]

21. Best chance in years, but ROCK HARD TEN is a runner...

A big, beautiful, bad-ass runner.



http://www.buttpaste.com/

(in case Smarty loses)

[PopSixSquish]

23. A&E did Their Biography Series on Him Last Night

What a beautiful horse and he can flat out run. During the Preakness, he apparently was just messing with the horse next to him until they got to the turn by flicking his ears up and down. Elliot gave him the whip and that sucker took off like the devil himself was chasing him.

Supposedly he's very intelligent and friendly too. One of the trainers said that he's always the first to the door to see who is coming in the barn.

What a wonderful animal.

[indigobusiness]

25. Smarty will win it, or lose it, in the first

turn.

What a horse. Maybe a superhorse.

[indigobusiness]

29. Pat Day on a closer...

at this distance = POTENT MOJO.

[indigobusiness]

31. Rain has crept into the forecast...

"...his father was a mudder...his mother was a mudder..."

[indigobusiness]

35. rain looking more and more

likely

[Justpat]

36. I don't think the mud will affect Smarty.

He has already won in it twice, I think. He seems like the type
that can run on any surface.

The forecast for tomorrow is for 70% chance of rain.

[indigobusiness]

38. He has handled the mud (Ark Derby wasn't it?)

...and the slop at Churchill (but it was sunny).

If it is blustery and raining hard, nobody is going to like it, and anything can happen. I'm hoping for a window in the weather.

I'm also hoping Smarty pulls it off, it would be good for racing, but gnarly weather adds spice to the potential of an upset.

Cheers...good luck.

[indigobusiness]

39. Yes...

I'm starting to believe...

[Arwennick]

40. bttt

[Arwennick]

41. I won $240 on two $5 bets

WOO HOO

[indigobusiness]

42. No...

Smarty will lose it in the stretch.