NFL 2004 Predictions

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

Okay, so I got really bored at work today. Anyway, here are my predictions. Just so you know my methodology, I didn't merely pick the win-loss records from mid-air. I actually went over every game this season and picked a winner (yes, I was THAT bored). Feel free to disagree as you wish, but this is just my humble opinion and will probably be wrong.

[Catholic Sensation]

1. the cowboys will have six wins by week 9

and I suspect you greatly overestimate the skill of teams like cincy, pittsburgh, washington, and the giants. Those six games will definitely be victories for dallas, and I'm ignoring teams like Detroit, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Chicago. The cowboys will have ten wins just like they did last year.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. In my predictions

Dallas losses are at Min, at Was, at GB, Det, at Cin, Phi, at Bal, at Sea, at Phi, and at NYG. The only one I'd budge on is the last one, however, this was a team that did not play well on the road against a very average schedule last year, and they have not made significant improvements to their team. The schedule has improved, but the team has not. The only home losses are to Detroit and Philly, two teams I think are quality opponents this year.

On edit: Don't ignore Detroit. They just added a ton of new talent and Harrington is ready to make "the leap".

[bigwillq]

4. I don't think Dallas will lose that many games (nt)

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

6. Maybe, maybe not.

I never said I was going to be right.

[bigwillq]

8. That is true. I do agree however with your Super Bowl Champion

I think the Pats take it again. This Giant fan will be happy with that. I'm from New England so let them win cause the G-Men are gonna stink.

[Catholic Sensation]

7. improved their qb situation with drew henson

improved their runningback situation, anyone is better than hambrick
improved their defensive line, michael wiley is better than ekuban
improved their offensive line, the two o-lineman they drafted will fit in well with larry allen, andre gurode, and al johnson

stayed the same in the defensive backfield, which is among the nfl's best
stayed the same in the linebacking corps, and bradie james will get more playing time

- the redskins didn't improve themselves that much, they just signed old vetarans, big deal
- the lions quarterback isn't that good
- the bengals will be using a brand new starter
- the new york giants suck, plain and simple

there

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

9. You're entitled to your opinions

I think you're vastly overestimating the contributions of Henson and Julius Jones. Henson probably won't even play and Jones ain't that good.

[Catholic Sensation]

13. jones is better than hambrick

i'm not saying he's great, i'm saying he's better than troy hambrick.

[On the Road]

2. Interesting --

I think the Patriots and Bengals will not quite live up to those expectations (although I like Cincinnati). I also think the Raiders and Giants will better than last season, especially with additions like Warren Sapp and Eli Manning. JMO.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. In response

The Patriots absolutely will live up to expectations, providing the team stays healthy (although they were not last year and still played near perfect football). They improved their team depth at most positions, with only their O-line coming in about the same as last year. The Bengals are hit or miss, I'll give you that. A lot of it is going to rest on Palmer's shoulders, but I have confidence in his abilities. They also don't play a horrible schedule, helping matters significantly. The Raiders could be better than I have them, but the AFC West's schedule is not fun this year. The Giants have an overrated rookie QB starting and haven't improved much else from last year with a coach (whom the players are already bitching about) installing a new system. They're gonna suck.

[On the Road]

48. You Had the Patriots Going 15-1, I Believe

That's really a long shot, no matter how good the team is. Coming off a Super Bowl win, they'll have the toughest schedule, too.

[Champ]

10. I couldn't disagree

Denver will do miles better then 9-7 and won't be knocked out of the first round. Super Bowl or AFC Championship is where I see them. Any less then that would be a disappointment.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

12. Prepare for disappointment

Denver and KC both benefitted from cupcake schedules last year. This is a very average team that will win the AFC West because they're an average team in a weak division. Their offense has no weapons (depleted line, average QB, traded away their best runner, aging WR corps). Their defense is decent, but they are schizophrenic (they let up big points in a few games last year and against poor teams like Chicago). Denver (and Miami for that matter) need to undergo complete reconstruction if they want to be anything more than mediocre.

On edit: as i've said earlier, the AFC west is in for a rude awakening with this year's schedule.

[Champ]

17. Whatever

Their defense was 4th in the league and with the additions of Champ Bailey, Lynch, DJ Williams, and they will be rotating D-lineman so they will be very good. Larry Coyer runs excellent defensive scemes. They didn't allow that many points vs Chicago, I watched that game and Denver flat out played bad. The average QB lead the team to a 10-3 record, with a 90+ QB Rating. Depleted Line hardly? First rounder George Foster will fill in and they still have their pro bowl offensive lineman they had last year. Their line is hardly depleted, and the only one who is aging is Rod Smith. Ashlie Lelie has playmaking ability as well as Darius Watts. Lelie will be solid, Watts may take awhile but he is going to be good. Injuries were the reason they struggled last year, what would you do if 2 of your starting linebackers were gone for the rest of the year after week 6? The linebacker unit was the heart and sole of that defense. Denver already underwent that complete reconstruction. Upgrading their D plus they got Tatum Bell who is both faster and bigger then Portis when he entered the league. Denver has a history of great backs under Mike Shannahan. Prepare to be surprised.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

21. Sorry buddy

Almost all of those stats were padded by virtue of the fact that only 2 of their wins came against teams with winning records last year. These Denver Broncos are a lot closer to the team that got whupped the last two weeks of the season than they were the team that won a lot of games. But hey, you could be right. I'm no genius.

[Champ]

24. Lets talk about the first of the last two weeks

The Green Bay game. They played well with Shannon Sharpe, Rod Smith, Clinton Portis, and Jake Plummer out for the entire game. With Danny Kannell behind center and Cecil Sapp in the backfield the Broncos almost turned it into a 10-17 game, but they failed to convert on 4th down. Then Ahman Green took it for a long touchdown against a defense filled with reserves, then on the kickoff the backup return man fumbled and viola it's 31-3 in less then a minute. The Colts game was ugly, Peyton tore that secondary apart which is why they improved it with a shut down corner and an all pro safety. They also got a hard hitting corner from Michigan in Jeremy LaSuer who can learn alot from Bailey. He will be a good nickel back as well but will likely not be much of a factor his first year in the season. Fine, I think 9-7 is too low and a 14-2 Seattle record is too high. I'm no genius either. :)

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

43. Seattle at 14-2 might be too high

But I look at their schedule and they can definitely handle every single one of their opponents. Plus they did a great job of defending home field last year, which is where a lot of their difficult games are played. I'm betting they lose at New England and at St. Louis, and possibly at Minnesota. But they get Atlanta, Carolina, Dallas, and Miami at home and the only one of those teams I see walking into Seattle and coming away with a win is Carolina. The lowest I'm willing to go on the Seahawks is 12-4.

I'm not budging on the Broncos though. They've done exactly zero to prove me wrong over the last couple of years. Just like Miami, they're always good enough to be in the playoff hunt, but not much more. Last year they had a cupcake schedule and this year is going to be an uphill battle for them. 9-7 and the playoffs isn't a horrible year though. It's not like I'm picking them to be last place.

And hey, I'm no expert here. Just another fan sticking his neck out.

[Champ]

47. I know

Even experts can't predict what will happen. If the Broncos stay healthy though they will be a team hard to stop, ESPN had them at #4 for a reason. The problem with last season was injuries. They could've won alot more games if Mobley and Gold weren't gone for the season and Danny Kanell and Buerlein wasn't behind center for 4 games.

[ScreamingMeemie]

11. Oh wow! You were bored...

But the Packers are taking it. :hi:

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

14. I hope you're right!

I don't see it happening though. I love the Packers, as I grew up with Reggie White as my idol. New England is my hometown team and first love, but the Packers will always have a place in my heart.

[fishnfla]

20. Bank it!

This is our year, I can feel it. The SB is in Jacksonville too, I'm there.

[Commendatori]

15. A list of problems with your picks, sir

AFC East - right order, but records are way off. A healthy Pennington would win six by himself, Miami won't lose 10, neither will Buffalo.

AFC East - the Cincinnati banwagon is too dangerous a ride with an unproven QB, Pittsburgh won't lose 12, Cleveland isn't nearly as bad as 3-13. Baltimore will win this division easily.

AFC South - You got the first two perfectly. However, Houston doesn't have the guns to win 11, and Jacksonville will go at minimum of .500.

AFC West - You got the order right, but I can't sign off on the division winner only getting nine wins when it gets to beat up on Oakland and San Diego four times. It's extremely unlikely that Denver could go 4-0 against those scrubs (as I believe they will) and 5-7 against the rest of the league. I see Denver winning a minimum of 10, probably 11.

NFC East - Terrell Owens is a locker room cancer joining a team whose window is closing. Dallas will win a minimum of ten. You're right on the Giants, and - unfortunately - my Redskins as well.

NFC North - GB doesn't have the gas to win 12 (nine or ten is more like it), Detroit won't go .500 (much less win 11), and Chicago isn't nearly bad enough to win only half the games you say the Giants or Chargers will win. I'd give this division to the Vikes, with the Bears and Lions winning six apiece.

NFC South - This looks like what I would have picked.

NFC West - Seattle will win 14 games only when the NFL expands their schedule to 28 weeks. They'll probably win about 10, maybe 11. I'd give the Rams 10 wins, and would swap your SF / Ari picks on general principle. Remember, we ARE talking about the Cardinals. :)

Thanks for the interesting thread.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

19. Hey, I didn't say I was right

That's just how I see it. I'll be wrong, don't you worry about that!

[Commendatori]

23. So will, I just thought that

you'd like some feedback :)

[MikeG]

16. No way the Steelers win only 4.

They'll at least be 8-8

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

35. maybe 6-10

They are not a good team though. Great pick with Roethlisberger though, the guy I thought was the best QB available in the draft. In 3 years, you're gonna have a star on your hands.

[WilliamPitt]

18. Vegas has the Pats favord 6-1 to win it all

:)

[VelmaD]

25. One would think as a Red Sox fan...

you'd know better than to bring that kind of thing up this early. :P

It's a darn shame that there's only one way for your Patriots and my Cowboys to face off this year. I had a lot of fun the week they played last year. :)

Start thinking now about a highly embarassing wager just in case that million-to-1 miracle happens and they actually hook up in the big game.

[WilliamPitt]

26. Vegas has the Sox favord to win the Series at 2-1

So there's that.

[VelmaD]

30. You poor thing...

you're pretty much screwed, aren't ya? :) Next thing you know they'll be on the cover of Sports Illustrated and then it's pretty much all over.

[MadHound]

22. Sorry friend, but you are underestimating the Chiefs

One of the top offenses in the NFL last year, and they have only made moves to better it. Granted, the defense last sucked, but they have made some good offseason moves to improve that side of the ball, the best of which was bringing back the man who put together the early ninties monster Chief Ds, Gunther Cunningham.

But hey, that's OK, we're used to being underestimated, it makes the victories that much more sweet;)

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

44. Word is out on the Chiefs

People know how to beat them now. They didn't scare anyone in the playoffs last year because of their pitiful defense and they didn't add much to change that. This year they've got to play 7 games against last year's playoff teams (plus Atlanta, which SHOULD have been a playoff team last year), as opposed to only 4 last year (not including playoffs, which is good because they bombed that game).

[mvd]

27. Underestimating the Eagles IMO

I think their offense will be the most explosive in the NFC this year, and Kearse might make the young cornerbacks not matter so much. I think if the Eagles can get another solid veteren presence into the secondary, they have a very good chance at the Super Bowl.

[Catholic Sensation]

31. how will it be explosive?

a good portion of their running game went across the state

[Champ]

32. TO?

:shrug:

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

34. I'm not so sure I agree

It's hard to say I underestimated the team I gave the second best record in the NFL. Yeah, they lose in the playoffs. That's because Andy Reid in three years hasn't proven himself capable of preparing his teams for playoff games. They, by all means, should've been one and out this year too (Mike Sherman literally handed them that Green Bay game). Not to mention the fact that they'll have more pressure than anyone else to actually win. I say they fold like a cheap lawn chair yet again.

[MAlibdem]

28. who beat the pats?

I agree, pats win again, they've really not lost anybody that can't be replaced...

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

33. I had them losing

In Miami near the end of the season. I don't see anyone winning them all, and that is Miami's record, so they'll be pumped to play that late season home game.

[TrogL]

29. Calgary in 3

[Ganja Ninja]

36. Atlanta to go 12 & 4?????

They have a couple of years of building before they can even get to a winning season.
I expect the Buc's to bounce back to at least a 10 win season. My predictions for the NFC South are:
Carolina 12 - 4
Tampa Bay 10 - 6
New Orleans 7 - 9
Atlanta 7 - 9

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

41. Did you miss 2002?

They went 9-6-1 that year, which seems like a winning record to me. The only reason they were that bad last year was the fact that Vick wasn't playing. There's no reason to believe that the Falcons won't bounce back, especially given that they've upgraded the team since then. The Bucs might not be as bad as I have them, but they aren't going to be that good either. There's a lot of turnover on that roster and not all of the holes from last year have been plugged yet.

[Ganja Ninja]

45. Too much change in Atlanta for them to turn around this season.

And Vick hasn't been able to stay healthy a whole season. He's got to learn a new offense and he's not getting the experience he needs when he's sitting on the sidelines with a cast on his leg or arm.

I'll admit Tampa is a big question mark. Gruden is a good offensive coach but he's also an asshole and that's only one of the factors in last seasons collapse. They were OK at the start of the season but after they lost so many close games and had a lot of injuries to some key players (not to mention the Keshawn problem or the Sapp contract problem) they folded their tent and mailed in the rest of the season. They have some real problems with the O line that may have been addressed at least for the short term. They could be a surprise this season.

[Loonman]

37. Pats win Superbowl again

Totally!

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[LTR]

39. I see it differently

Lots to talk about, so I'll take the NFC North for now.

Minnesota will be one of the best teams in the NFL this year. Just watch.

They improved on both sides of the ball. During the offseason, they quietly built one of the best and youngest defenses in the league. There are no holes there that I can see. On offense, they added a legitimate #2 WR in Marcus Robinson to take heat off Randy Moss. Michael Bennett is completely healed, but if he goes down, there is Moe Williams, Onterrio Smith and highly regoarded Mewelde Moore. Not to mention a monster of an O-line.

They'll take the NFC North easily. And they'll certainly be able to swat away the likes of the overrated Falcons. Green Bay lost players this offseason, and didn't really do anything to replace them. Plus, Favre ain't getting any younger.

How it will pan out:

Minnesota 11-5
Detroit 8-8
Green Bay 7-9
Chicago 5-11


Most Improved:

Minnesota - balance on both sides of the ball
Arizona - It'll be a fun offense to watch. Even more fun if they could get a decent RB.
Detroit - Same as Arizona, but they have a good rookie RB.
Dallas - Parcells can indeed make chicken salad out of chickenshit.

Most Overrated:

Atlanta - It's Vick and a horrid defense. That's it.
Green Bay - Really have done nothing to improve, and too much turmoil with McKenzie thing.
Philadelphia - Even with T.O., McNabb is still a ballhog.
Cincinatti - They are getting better, but are still far from worldbeaters. Still some work to do. I do see them with at least a 9-7 record.
St. Louis - The dynasty is over
Denver - Big mistake trading Portis, but they are good at developing RB talent. Hearst is not an adequate replacement.
Washington - Still suck.

Division Champs:

AFC:

NE
BAL
INDY
KC


NFC:

PHI
MIN
CAR
SEA

No championship predictions as of yet.

[Zech Marquis]

40. New England

until somebody shows they can beat them in the Playoffs, I have to say New England is the team to beat,period.
Raider Nation? No Super Bowl, but hopefully showing more spirit than last'years' disaster. If they can sign Kerry Collins, look out.
Indy--reload and try again, this time get Homefield and avoid going to NE.
Redskins, maybe a year away, but much better this upcomig season, I think maybe a wildcard and a 9-7 record. They ill have to beat the Eagles and Cowboys, and neither one of those teams will be easy.
Philly--finally someone who can catch theball, that NFC Championsip game was embarrassing!
Atlanta--keep Vick healthy!
Carolina--build on their success last year and make the NFC sweat again.
Dallas--depends n the QB situation, playoffs are possible

Ne York Jets--if Pennington can stay healthy, look out.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

42. I agree with a lot of what you say

However, I think the Raiders are far too old as a team and are in need of wholesale revamping. They're trying to do the same thing the Broncos and Dolphins are doing - adding aging or overvalued free agents in order to keep their heads above water. That's not how you build a Super Bowl Champion, however. The last 5 Super Bowl Champs all went through wholesale rebuilding prior to their victories.

Redskins might be 9-7, but I think too many people are overestimating the impact Gibbs will have. He'll be good, but not that good. Remember, guys like Parcells and Vermeil might've retired and come back, but they never left the football world (both were broadcasters in their hiatus). Gibbs has been working the race tracks and that's going to account for all the difference in the world.

Dallas takes a step back mostly because they had an easy schedule last year. They didn't win a game last year that they shouldn't have (which is respectable all the same, but not the mark of a good team). I don't think they've upgraded nearly enough to make the leap. I think they'll get around 6 or 8 wins.

Jets have a lot more holes than Pennington. They might be respectable, but not much more.

[Angelus]

46. My team (Vikings) will make it to the first round of the...

playoffs, and spoil it. I'll give the SB to the Colts. :)

[cheezus]

49. Vikings will start 9-0 and then lose every game thereafter

just missing the playoffs.


/safest bet in sports.