Our media at work (re Bush Approval in the latest Gallup Poll).

[Brotherjohn]

The latest USA Today / Gallpup Poll has Bushs's approval down a notch (from 59 to 58%). Admittedly, this is no change from the last poll, statistically. (http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2003-07-28-poll-bush.htm)

But I point it out because the headline in yesterday's USA Today said something to the effect of "Bush Approval Increases with capture of Saddam's Sons". Interestingly, yesterday's article did not include (even a link to) Bush's overall job approval numbers, but did say that approval of his handling of the Iraq situation had improved. That is a very different thing. Besides which, approval of his handling of Iraq only incerased 3% from the last poll, likely also statistically insignificant.

Despite the spin from the media (USAToday is among the worst, while some of the major networks and papers are starting to wake up), polls show that the people's confidence in Bush is continuing to erode. I still maintain that Bush will be below 50% in most polls by mid-September, and hovering around 40% by year's end. People have lost their trust in him. He is no longer our post 9-11 "protector", but just another politician.

[aquart]

1. He is not just another politician.

He's a liar with his hand in the cookie jar and crumbs all over his mouth.

[Brotherjohn]

3. Exactly. But now that the rest of the country sees him more as...

... just another politician, they will be open to the possibility of him being "a liar with his hand in the cookie jar and crumbs all over his mouth." (good description, BTW) They bought that about Gore, and it wasn't even true in his case!

Until recently, Bush has been untouchable. Nothing would stick. And I think it's because of what Paul Krugman wrote today: that in the aftermath of 9-11, people wanted to believe the best about their president. That little benefit he's been riding, however, is expiring. Also as Krugman said, if that's all it was, then "Mr. Bush will eventually face a terrible reckoning."

I believe he will. Either impeachment or, more likely (and I think a worse fate for him) going down in history as a failed one-termer, just like his father.

[whoYaCallinAlib]

2. I pray you are right.

I would feel better if our candidates would get out there and give specifics on their programs to make America a better place. I believe we can bash Bush and give people reasons to vote against him, but we can do a much better job of giving them reasons to vote for our candidates just in case they don't hate Bush as much as we do.

[morstyranni]

4. I don't think so.

He won't go too far below 50%.

[Brotherjohn]

5. I think that he'll be well below 50% is almost unavoidable.

While I think he may level off around 40%, I think he's still headed there, as he alwas has been, at any given point in his presidency. 9-11 gave him a huge bump before he even did anything (Afhganistan, Homeland Security, anything). His numbers almost immediately began to "normalize", droppring consistently and precipitously with no sign of slowing down, until they were in the mid 50s before we invaded Iraq. The bump from that was much shorter-lived and the decline resumed at an ever steeper slope. It's back in the mid 50s and shows no signs of levelling off. And criticism of Bush, for the first time, is just starting to stick. Another war would give him an even smaller, short-lived bump (if not lower his numbers).

Look at Pollkatz graphic (compilation of Bush Approval polls). The latest below does not even include several of the most recent numbers, all below 60% and as low as 53% (some even taken after the Uday, Qusay deaths). I agree that his approval numbers will eventually level off somewhere. but I don't think it will begin to happen until he is well below 50%. I think his TRUE approval rating is somewhere around 35-40%. 9-11 colored everything through the eyes of a shocked population wanting to believe the best. But they are waking up.

[Catherine Vincent]

6. I agree with you.

There will always be about 45-50% of the morons (of those polled) that will approve of this beady-eyed thief no matter what.

[Brotherjohn]

7. I agree there is a percentage who will do so, but I think it's 30-35%.

That number has always popped up in many opinion polls (before and after Bush) on contentious, right wing issues such as vouchers and abortion. 30-35% always take the hard right stance. I call them the 30-percenters, and Bush will never lose them.

But I don't think 50% will always automatically approve of anything Bush does. I don't even think 40% will, although his overall "approval" rating may stay around there (a very different thing). I think the way things are going, he's going to keep his core support and perhaps another 10% who just don't want to rock the boat. But I even hear conservatives around my parts (Redneck Riviera, Deep South) expressing serious doubts about him.