No "Ifs, and, or buts:" Does the Dem Nominee Win in 2004?

[Devil Dog Dem]

A simple question, and please no "if the war continues . . " or "Not if so-and-so is the nominee . . ." type answers.

Sadly, my answer is no. We don't win. Get ready for 4 more years of these God-awful people ruining our country.

[jpgray]

1. We will win. (nt)

[robcon]

2. I think we'll lose.

n/t

[Melodybe]

26. We will win by a landslide! Too many people are mad at chimpy!

I know ya'll are probably thinking that I am out of my mind, but I'm in the south and even the rednecks are turning on him. There are too many poor people here that are getting fucked, and they are finally starting to realise who is behind them. The repubs with money are the only folks that are happy with Shrub these days.

[efhmc]

3. Win.

[wanderingbear]

4. We may not win the election

But we will win the ensueing civil war..

[mw]

5. It's ours to lose

Bush is very vulnerable.

- There isn't a huge state-by-state difference since 2000. In fact, Bush has probably lost a few.

- The country is still divided

- If Nader doesn't run, it tips farther to the Dem.

- Etc etc

[wuushew]

6. So what, we are down 6 electoral votes since 2000

The contest with be easier for the enemy not us.

We needed 4(in reality 3 cause of D.C.) electoral votes to win in 2000, we have lost 6 since the census. Which states are defecting from Bush?

NV 5
NH 4
WV 5
CO 9
LA 9

[Terwilliger]

21. It was ours to win last time

and the chances of winning then were astronomical

We don't have anywhere near the same surety now, except that the large majority of people are really starting to dislike Bush. Still, it's up to him...if he can recover his image, the Dem nominee probably won't matter.

[bobd]

7. We Definitely Lose

Things are just not bad enough yet for people to vote the horrible republican thugs out of office. I also predict that the next 4 years will not be pleasant. At least one more major terrorist attack as well as a major financial crisis will finally do the bastards in. The mess that will be left will be like nothing anyone alive has seen.

[Turkw]

8. If we do the same old thing, winning will be difficult, we have to fight

at all levels, tooth and nail. Hit the machine the repeats the lies, put them on the defensive. get their talking heads off message.

[KG]

9. gee, some still believe there will be an election?

you really think these criminals are going to give up what they worked so hard to steal?

[wanderingbear]

11. No..I think were going to have to go to war to get it back..

Dont you?

[Silverhair]

18. War? Do you mean metaporically, or literally?

I do hope you mean metaphorically, because a literal war against the gov't is a romantic fantasy born from too many joints. Most of the populace would be against you. You would lose.

[wanderingbear]

25. Oh quite literally Im Afraid..

There are people in this country that have the meens.

[RaRa]

10. Lose

If we couldn't "win" (ok, I know we did in 2000, but really) in the last one with the strong economy, respect of the world, lower rates of crime, teenage pregnancy, etc etc etc. (Hey, who cares about anyone who isn't rich, white and owns a fucking utility?) The fact that 2000 wasn't a blowout has robbed me of considerable optimism. Not all, mind you. But I'm numbing myself to the prospect of 4 more years of the worthless piece of human shit sitting in the WH.

[Melodybe]

27. Excuse me are you people republicans? There is no fucking way that Bu$h

can win! I seriously know like 2 people that will still willingly vote for him. And they are die hard Fox watching folks. With the exception of Diebold, and if someone other than Dean or Clark gets the nomination, then maybe they can cheat. But if it is Dean or Clark, I can guarantee they will not lay down like Gore did, they will DEMAND a fair vote, and that is why the media and the repubs do not want either to be the nominee.

I am sick of all this we'll lose junk here! You can say you are being realistic, but that is all just BS, the truth is this administration is HURTING a lot of people. People are justifiably mad, and it is not just the Deanics, either. People are waking up and Bu$h doesn't have a prayer.

[bushedout]

40. You need to get out more

You're in fantasyland. It doesn't help our cause.

[Yavin4]

12. The Democrats Will Lose Big In 2004

Then, America will lose even bigger in 2006. We will have a series of economic collapses that year, and middle class America will finally learn for themselves what the corporate Republicans are all about once and for all time.

[private_ryan]

13. unfortunately I agree. We will lose big in 2004

Repubs will sweep everything

[meisje]

24. I thought the economic collapse was going to be this year

or was it last or the year before? The dems will lose and life will go on.

[Devlzown]

14. That depends on us.

I'm not certain about the outcome of the election, but if we lose this one, I think we're done for a long time, if not for good. So we better go at them hard and we better kick and claw and scratch and bite and roll around in the mud (with them, not each other) and kick 'em in the balls and pull their hair. We've gotta win this one, folks. If we don't, the younger ones have to know we tried.

[Devil Dog Dem]

Not only do we lose, but we face a major realignment

I don't want to sound like henny penny with the sky falling, and I pray I am wrong, but I think the Dem leadership has failed us so miserably the last 3 years. They allowed these guys to get stronger and stronger and failed to use what few tools they had (subpoena powerr while in the Senate Majority; fillebusters; quorum calls, the twcie reading of every bill prior to voting, etc.), while the repugs consolidated their power. I fear that we are on the verge of a realignment based on their almost unobstructed ability to frame the debate and make Dems look bad.

[Devil Dog Dem]

15. Not only do we lose, but we face a major realignment

I don't want to sound like henny penny with the sky falling, and I pray I am wrong, but I think the Dem leadership has failed us so miserably the last 3 years. They allowed these guys to get stronger and stronger and failed to use what few tools they had (subpoena powerr while in the Senate Majority; fillebusters; quorum calls, the twcie reading of every bill prior to voting, etc.), while the repugs consolidated their power. I fear that we are on the verge of a realignment based on their almost unobstructed ability to frame the debate and make Dems look bad.

[loudnclear]

16. The Dems win!

And that's my final answer.
Unless the election is stolen for a second time.

[Diogenes2]

17. Win win win

All win all the time... Joy again in Mudville, Bush & Cheney have struck out...

[Silverhair]

19. The Democrats are in very serious trouble.

Of course, 11 months is a long time in politics. But right now, Bush is drawing all the Aces. The economy does go in cycles and it is in the recovery phase. Jobs are always a lagging indicator and should start picking up strongly rather soon. (A President's action effect the baseline that the economy cycles about, but not the cycles themselves.)

The Iraq situation will appear to improve for awhile, the show trial will show Saddam for the brutal thug that he is, and Bush will get the credit.

He has scored a diplomatic victory with Libya's promise to dismantle their WMD program. I don't know what that entails, but it doesn't really matter, as Bush got favorable headlines from it.

There is a major demonstration being planned for the RNC convention in NYC. I got a real bad feeling about that. It sounds too much like the Yippies in 72 demonstrating in Miami. They helped Nixon by turning their demonstration violent. So many people are so angry that I feel this demonstration will turn violent too, and will turn people off to the Democratic cause.

Bush has had a series of legislative victories, and that makes him look good.

He has a great wedge issue with the gay marriage issue. Remember, for a wedge to work, it doesn't have to peel of all of our support, only a couple of percent, and we get hurt badly. He doesn't lose any of his base on the issue, while we lose some of ours.

They are alaready organizing their grassroots get out the vote network to ID who their base is, and they aren't having to use up wads of money in a bruising primary battle.

Bush is an incumbent, and any incumbent President has the ability to manipulate the news, to make news.

There are more open senate seats in red states than in blue ones.

Democraphics have shifted, giving the red states some more electoral votes.

Bush still has an approval rating of over 50%, and it has been stable at just over 50% for several months. And he hasn't started campaigning yet.

Yep, we are in deep trouble. I don't think we are going to win this one. And it looks like they may get a philabuster proof senate. Then the Demcrats will be totally marginalized.

If that happens look for some Democrats to defect and become Reps, to be able to hold their seats and be able to get goodies for their district/state.

[bushedout]

32. Thanks for telling the truth

Maybe it will get through to some of these idiots and Dean will get dumped. I doubt it though.

I am very pessimistic.

[osaMABUSh]

20. We win - the recent * poll spike over Saddam is short lived

Let's not get into a tizzy because * has had some 'good' news lately. He will fall again after he f**ks up this latest opportunity. His support is weak.

[terrya]

22. This truly hurts to say this...but the Dems lose.

I WANT to be positive. I'll work for the Democratic candidate.

But we're going to lose, folks.

Bush is going to have $200 million at his disposal. He's a master at raising money.

As the President, he can influence events. Look at the capture of Saddam, for instance. The Dems were all forced to agree how great that was. And that only helped Bush.

Never...as long as he's been President...has Bush's popularity dipped below 50%. NEVER. A majority of the American people think this President is doing a good job. My God...look at the lies...the fucking scandals....the sheer sleaziness of this administration. Fuck, Bill Clinton was IMPEACHED because of a sexual relationship he had with an intern. But, man...look at Bush. Sleaze, lies, crimes...and he gets a 50% + appoval rating. That only proves that 50% of the American people are just plain fucking dense and hopelessly stupid if they can't figure out how evil the occupant of the Oval Office really is. I don't quite know how we can educate those people.

Even worse...the Pugs continue controlling the Congress. Both the House and Senate.

This is going to be bad, guys.

[Melodybe]

37. Actually the majority of people POLLED think that Bu$h is doing a good job

if you have ever taken a statistics class you now how easy it is to receive the desired effect. You know the 4 out of 5 dentists polled that say chewing trident after meals is good for you teeth. Well, the poll would have you believe that 80% of all dentists would recommend trident after meals. The truth is LITERALLY 4 out of 5 dentists recommend trident. The trick is to keep asking different groups until you get the desired result. Polls mean nothing.

For example 54% of Repub. polled admitted that they like taking night time medicine during the day, that one is from The Aweful Truth.

We are going to kick ASS next year. The thing that will prevent our victory is if people keep repeating this we're gonna loose junk until everyone believes yet another lie. Quit doing Rove's work for him.

[caledesi]

23. I think so. There is so much ammo to use against Bush*

Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?

That's what I thought. Vote Dem.

[Kazak]

28. I have a feeling...

that the bottom is going to drop out on Mr. Bush.

I smell a landslide in '04.

*fingers crossed*

[bushedout]

33. Reality check

Quit living in a fantasy world. You are part of the problem.

[Melodybe]

38. Right! All those people that voted for Gore last time have seen the error

of their ways and decided to vote republican. Bull Shit! You are the one in a dream world, we DO NOT have to live in a 1984 world yet. Once you have been as free as Americans have it is really fucking hard to turn the clock back. Evolution is on our side and people ARE being hurt.

[bushedout]

41. Get real

A nation at peace, economy booming though faltering and gore canm't win the E.V.s!

It should not have been close at all. Clinton did him in.

[AntiCoup2K4]

29. It's really simple mathematics

Junior LOST the last election. He's lost even more of his votes since.

There are splinters of the traditional conservative right wing base that can't stand him. Fiscal conservatives to Buchananite "less government" types to some of the fundie wackos who blame him for the Supreme Court allowing "sodomy in Texas". Now he's even starting to lose the military vote........

In a fair election, Junior's in deep shit. Now that doesn't mean we get overconfident and coast into November. No, it means we work harder and get a fucking LANDSLIDE in November. Oh Yes, it CAN happen!

And in a rigged election, which they will try if they can get away with it, we must have the overwhelming numbers to prove beyond any doubt that they are LYING. The worst problem in Florida - aside from the fraudulent actions of Kate Harris & Teresa La Pore before the election - was the fact that the numbers were so close that the recount would have been suspicious to one camp or the other no matter how it was done.

If we turn out millions who haven't voted in years, those circumstances will be impossible.

[kreg]

30. We will lose 2004, no doubt about it.

I hate it too, but be realistic...

* At the moment, we are the minority. (Face it, it's true)
* We know what we know, but the press will not print our views. (Many because of bias, some because (hey deal with it -- 9/11 Bush Knew) there simply isn't any REALLY conclusive proof that will sway the public.
* We don't have a good set of cantidates...furthermore, we barely have a stand-out cantidate (dean), and he's not so hot to the public.
* The fact that the democrats have about four (deal with it, al, dennis, clark, and joe shmoe, do not have a chance at getting the nomination) viable candidates, yet the public sees about twelve, shows to me a weak party and all the fence sitters are going to go with Bush -- a "proven" candidate.
* When bush shows Osama sometime in october next year, his political career will be cast in stone. (yeah, he's got him. he's waiting for the right moment to unveil him)

So here's the deal for our party:
Whoever wins the nomination (I'm in favor of Dean at the moment) we need to put our entire support behind him. DO NOT GIVE THE REPUBLICANS a land slide. A landslide will set them up for a 'W' in 2008 and that will probably be our real shot a win, and we need to garner political traction in this election.

Oh and Nader needs to NOT RUN. Very much now, and in particular in 2008 because he's the reason we lost florida the first time around. STOP NADER.

[bushedout]

31. Not if it's Dean

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jbm]

35. win!

because my mother who has been voting a straight republican ticket for 50 years told me today she's voting against Bush!

[wuushew]

36. A polling sample of one has a substantial margin of error

n/t

[AP]

39. yes, (only) Edwards or Clark can win.