For those of you who think it can't get any worse . . .

[dolstein]

As bad as things are now, with Republicans occupying the White House and holding a slim majority in the House and Senate, things could get a hell of a lot worse. With Breaux retiring, there will now be FIVE open Senate seats in the South. There's a very real possibility that Republicans could win all of these seast -- particularly if the Democrats nominate someone who isn't competitive in the South. The possibility of the Republicans having a filibuster proof majority in the Senate no longer sounds unrealistic. If you hated the current batch of judicial nominees, that's nothing compared to the people Bush will send to the Senate once he knows that confirmation is a foregone conclusion.

[thebigidea]

1. so we must nominate Lieberman - only he is competetive in the South...

[sujan]

2. no forget that

Let's all join the republican party.

[thebigidea]

3. good idea! Then the South will be OURS! OURS!

[bobbieinok]

5. I don't know/understand where you're coming from

But it looks like to me that Clark would have a very good chance in the south.

(I was born in OK, went k-12 in OK, college in TX, grad school in CA, 20+ years in IA, and since 89 back in OK.)

[Dob Bole]

25. Yes! He'll carry the Solid South like last time!

noob

[ulysses]

4. "someone who isn't competitive in the South"

Dear god, could we get over our southern fetish? How many electoral votes does the *rest* of the union have?

Even if the south is so vital, I still haven't gotten an answer from the "we must appeal to southern white men" folks on how we avoid having what happened to Max Cleland happen to anyone else with a military background.

[bobbieinok]

6. good question

but now we KNOW there's no lie they'll be ashamed to use.

From what I've heard, Clark would fight back super hard and fast with a good sound bite.

[dolstein]

8. Sorry, but this isn't a fetish -- it's electoral reality

The Democrats simply aren't going to beat an incumbent president with $200 million in the bank by ceding to him a region of the country that represents nearly half the electoral votes he needs to get reelected. While it is theoretically possible to win a majority of electoral votes without carrying a single Southern state, the mechanics of campaigning against an incredibly well-funded incumbent make it a practical impossibility. I'm sorry that you aren't yet prepared to address this unpleasant reality

[ulysses]

11. 189 out of 538 by my count.

http://www.fec.gov/pages/elecvote.htm "Half the votes he needs" is misleading, imho.

Regardless, you're still assuming that the south will vote as a bloc. This isn't necessariy true, especially if the campaign is bright enough to pry the fundies and corporatists apart at the economic seam.

[Qutzupalotl]

12. 189 out of 270. n/t

[ulysses]

51. 538 total.

Playing electoral tiddlywinks gets us nowhere.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. dolstein is right.....

If we nominate a presidential candidate who is unacceptable to southerners we risk harming the rest of the ticket and losing all five open southern senate seats and awarding * a filibuster proof majority in the Senate....

Dolstein is the proverbial canary is the coal mine....

I say we make a Pascal's Wager and nominate a candidate who will "play " in the south because as in Pascal's Wager the downside is horrific.....

[ulysses]

50. ok, so who plays here?

Edwards? He's in his first term in the Senate. No.

Clark? I *still* have no answer to the question re: what happened to Max Cleland, the last military hero we thought would have no trouble in the south.

Who?

[Ferretherder]

63. So who do we nominate,...

...someone who will 'play' in the South,......

....or someone whose stand on issues we REALLY BELIEVE IN?

Hmmmm, tough choice.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

22. "pry the fundies and corporatists apart"

That's exactly the kind of strategy that will work too.

[Julien Sorel]

26. And all you have to do is wish it and it will be done.

Lots of fundies are 'corporatists.' In fact, I think this whole 'corporatist' thing is missing the point. The Republicans have a near-stranglehold on small businesspeople, who use churches as part of their business networks. How do you 'pry' such people away from their churches?

[stevedeshazer]

21. You are right

Regardless who the eventual nominee is, the South cannot be discounted. Not only in this election, but in the long term especially. The Democratic Party has to come to grips with it.

[bearfartinthewoods]

38. if you see things better in a graphic display check this map

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

check out the bar at the top of the map for historical reference.
it feels really good to remember the way it was during clinton.

[stevedeshazer]

42. Thanks

The visual was helpful.

[Bill of Rights]

60. Looking at the electoral map

I wonder if Gephardt is the answer. He could win Missouri. And West Virginia. And keep Michigan. And put Ohio in play.

[kentuck]

9. Considering that a Repub has never won in Louisiana...

Democrats even voted for John Breaux. :)

[blondeatlast]

7. Zactly--the Supreme Court should be one of the biggest issues

at the convention.

How much worse can it get? I don't care to find out.

[tom_paine]

10. Can a determined and ruthless third of a nation seize it from the

other two-thirds?

You betcha. It happened in Nazi Germany (Hitler got 32% of the laste real vote in 1932) and of course the Busheviks are in the process of doing it, starting with the Attempted Coup of 1998 (which 2/3rds of the nation opposed).

Is there anyone here so naive to think it can;t get any worse? Hell, these are the Good Old Days, when we still live under the wretched remnants of the old American Republic.

What will happen when the last vestiges of that place are GONE from our lives?

[bluestateguy]

13. Could happen, but not likely

First of all, I don't count GA as a Democrat seat with ol' Zell. Republicans must defend seats in PA, IL, OK and AK which will all be vulnerable. There is also an outside chance of Democrats making NH, MO and CO competitive. In a year with presidential level turnout I just can't see Republicans winning more than 56 seats max.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Fifty Six Seats......

That's only four seats short of a filibuster proof majority.....

[goobergunch]

30. I concur.

My predictions agree...it's highly unlikely that we'd have less than 44 seats.

Although that's not a very comforting number.... :scared:

[Julien Sorel]

14. Yet another perfectly good post that will be swamped by the wave

of Deanial.

Dean has a brilliant 'Southern Strategy' that will make everyone forget about his elite, Northeastern, wealthy, draft-dodging, pot smoking background, and the liberal state he governed.

The South doesn't matter.

Stop pandering to the South.

We'll win there by offering them healthcare and jobs!

Ba Ba Ba Ba.

Besides, who needs the Supreme Court? We have the power, Howard has given it to us. Nobody needs the Supreme Court now. Congress? Wait until they see Howard's forearms up-close and personal! Wait until they feel the heat of Howard's righteous anger. They'll quickly snap into line like the trained cockroaches they are, Republican and Democrat alike.

Nevermind the fact that he will get crushed in the general election anyway, so we will be throwing away any hope of being competitive in the South, and regions that share some Southern values, along with the presidency.

Smart folks would start thinking about rebuilding strategies now, just in case. Because something tells me we're about to be in a position akin to where the Republicans were when LBJ had a majority in the House and the Senate to work with. Of course, lots of those 'Dems' were Dixiecrats, which gave LBJ a much less monolithic body to work with than the gang of dittoheads the Republicans habitually send to Washington.

Remember, anger is a gift. I read it here someplace.

[Kamika]

15. man

don't be so angry

[Julien Sorel]

17. Don't confuse disgust and amazement with anger.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. John Stuart Mill

caled the Tory Party the "stupid party"


If he was alive today he would call the Democratic party the "stupid party"....


This election is about self preservation....


The amount of people on this site whisteling past the graveyard is tragic....


I have my own little business and can live by my wits.... I'll survive Bush's America... I shudder how the more vulnerable will fare....

[Julien Sorel]

52. Traditionally here and elsewhere, the conservatives

are stupid. 30 years ago, if you were asked to name a conservative 'intellectual,' the only name out there was William F. Buckley. 20 years ago, you had Buckley and Will. Now they have their think tanks, their pundits, and the columnists are overwhelmingly conservative. Instead of trying to figure out why, some of these people concoct conspiracy theories about 'corporatism' and so on, while liberal media outlets fail one after another. The idea that there's something wrong with either the liberal message or the way it's being presented never seems to cross their mind.

[Jacobin]

20. Do you spend much time in the South? I live there.

I happen to think that Dean will do well in the South, particularly if you compare him to a Kerry. Kerry's demeanor will not serve him well in the south.

Dean's populist streak will appeal. I also think Clark would do well in the south, PARTLY because he hails from Arkansas.

I wouldn't give up on it quite yet. I really wouldn't.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Live In The South....I Grew Up In The South... ...

I have campaigned for Dems in the South....

My friend was Buddy McKay's campaign manager in 1988 when he lost FL by 1/2 percentage points while the northeastern former governor at the top of the ticket was losing FL by twenty four percentage points....


It's hard to win when the top of the ticket is getting shellacked...

[Dob Bole]

28. lol

Sorry, but I have to agree with some of what you said...some people are just kind of clueless about Southern politics.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Exactly.....

We have too many philosopher kings on this site and not enough folks who are schooled in practical politics....


Also, I think too many folks on this site only have lefties as friends and therefore think there are alot more lefties than there really are....

[QC]

35. Yep--some of us seem to think that

America is Berkeley writ large.

[bearfartinthewoods]

40. your second point is DEAD ON!!!!

the first one ain't shabby either :grin:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. Most Of My Friends Are Lefties Too.....

The ones who aren't we don't talk politics....


I go to chamber meetings and other business oriented meetings... If there's one hundred people there maybe four or five are Democrats....

[RainDog]

46. well, Bush was able to do it

i.e.

"make everyone forget about his elite, Northeastern, wealthy, draft-dodging, pot smoking background, "

so I guess, except for the liberal state he governed, it's possible.

I'm also from the south, and I think that populism has a strong pull there...which is offset at the moment by the voting bloc of the fundies.

so, in real poltick terms, how do you propose the dems deal with that block, which will not vote for any candidate which is part of a party which supports gay civil rights, the right to privacy for women on the issue of abortion, and the separation of church and state?

there is no way a dem can appeal to this block and rationally hope to win.

however, it is possible to appeal to the other side of the south, to the part which doesn't want the "holier-than-thous" to tell them how to live their lives.

the dems need to focus on voter registration in the south, plus a huge group which will vote absentee and then serve as poll watchers in areas in which the repukes will no doubt have people stationed to try to intimidate voters.

I would be happy to serve as one of those poll watchers, in fact. And I would be happy to work voter registration.

dems need a grass roots door to door voter registration drive, plus voter registration at specific places, plus protections for voters who are likely to vote dem.

in fact, this same strategy is essential across the nation. dems win when greater numbers of Americans go to the polls.

[tlb]

55. Realism ?

You are SUCH a spoilsport :)

[Merusault]

16. Louisiana - don't worry

Democrats will hold the Louisiana seat. We will run a centrist-left candidate and he will beat David Vitter (U.S. Rep.) who is a Bush lackey. Vitter is popular in his affluent district but he would have no chance statewide against a moderate Democrat. Just consider the senate race last year and the gubernatorial race this year.

[hedda_foil]

23. There's a reason that 5 DLC/blue dog Dems are retiring.

And it stinks to high heaven imho.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. A Couple Of Things

Bob Graham, John Edwards,and arguably Fritz Hollings aren't blue dog Dems... Zell and John Breaux are definitely Blue Dogs....


I think they all have their reasons but I believe they are tired of being in the minority and want to get out of the way of the 2004 Republican tsunami....

That sucks....

[windansea]

56. hedda foil

priceless!!

[goobergunch]

31. Personally I think the "coattail-effect" is overrated

Look at the 2000 Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island Senate races.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. How About Negative Coattails?

Connie Mack beat Buddy McKay in 1988, 50.2% to 49.8% (or something like that) while Papa Bush beat the Duke 62% to 38%....

The Duke pulled of FL in Sept and lost the state by 24% .... He cost Buddy McKay that seat....

[arewethereyet]

54. there are many who would disagree

and they have history on their side

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

33. Instead of southern strategies, we should be doing what Dems do best

Developing policies and messages that appeal to ALL Americans. I would never write off the south anymore than I would craft a position solely in order to appeal to it.

The only issue I have with this post is the same thing I have with Republicans...how about a positive uniting message rather than scaring the shit out of us all?

[David Zephyr]

37. Yes!

Appealing to the 50% of the qualified electorate that don't even bother to vote by as you say "developing policies and messages" that address them.

[RainDog]

49. and helping to get them registered to vote.

and helping to protect their right to vote by poll watching.

[Beaker]

36. If this were to come to pass...

would we likely see the likes of Olympia Snow and/or Lincoln Chafee switching parties in order to maintain at least the illusion of checks and balances?

[Donna Zen]

41. Neither will switch.

n/t

[GOPBasher]

39. This is trouble.

Let's get ready for more wars, more sky-high deficits, a crippled economy from those deficits, and environmental destruction so bad that our children won't be able live a any kind of quality life.

[Donna Zen]

44. It would be nice to hold our own

but it is just as important to make bush do some work in the South. If we just throw in the towel, we allow bush to have that much more time and cash to work Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Running a candidate that has NO appeal to Southern voters equals throwing in the towel. And thinking that telling them how poorly the corporations are treating them, will not cut it. Telling them that you are taking away their tax cuts will only make them laugh in your face.

On another note: Woodruff did a one hour Dean special this afternoon.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Election 04 Is Shaping Up To Be A Greek Tragedy....

The players had choices but were hell bent on making the worst choices....

[Julien Sorel]

53. You're kidding?

On another note: Woodruff did a one hour Dean special this afternoon.

How is that different from every other program she does? Or is her usual segment only 15 or 30 minutes?

[littlejoe]

47. I would nominate myself, but

I don't like the humidity.

[arewethereyet]

48. sounds like Edwards to the rescue !

how about that, not only is he best positioned and most presidential, he can benefit the congressional races as opposed to hurting them !

can't need any more reasons than that !

Edwards bandwagon loadind up right over here !

[UTUSN]

57. KERRY-EDWARDS

But indulge me in my favorite dolstein/LIEBERMAN story: Somebody posted the usual-nasty about LIEBERMAN, and I posted, "Be careful, dolstein is going to kick our ass," and somebody else sed, "He's got to catch us first."

[arewethereyet]

59. right concept but Edwards/Kerry

the general electorate are suckers for a southern accent, you can't tell me its not so ! I like Kerry but I like my guy a bit more.

Charisma at the top to bring the swing, a long history of statesmanship to ensure the base and run interference.

At least for me.

[KharmaTrain]

58. This Is Real Depressing...

I refuse to give a dime to the DNC or any ANY Presidential candidate and am maxing out on my house and nearby house races this year...and I'll be looking to donate as much as I can to other Democratic candidates who have a strong chance to beat a Repugnican incumbent or retain an open seat (sorry nothing to the 15 termers)...since winning the House is the MOST important thing the Democrats need to do to secure this nation...above the White House, above the Senate.

Yes, the thought of a fillibuster-proof Senate better wake up someone somewhere and let's start focusing on the real hard work that is needed to get done for a long-term future...throwing the GOOP out of control of the House and Senate. This was our only real safeguard against Raygun in the 80's...was a hedge on RoveCo. after Jeffords quit the GOOP and prevents any right wingers from getting too far too fast.

What's the use of a weak executive with two hostile houses? While I loathe the thought of * winning an election (or stealing another one), I would sleep a lot better with Democrats in control of one or both houses.

Other than that, I pay no attention to the presidential beauty pagent...wake me up when the convention begins.

[reknewcomer]

61. I said the same thing in another thread about power in the house

And got totally trashed. I hope you don't get the same.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

62. You Are So Right.....

Thank God we had a Democratic congress to put a check on Republican executive branch excesses...


Without out that we'd be doomed....