Sen. Breaux's retirement, gives the GOP a near lock on the Senate

[TakebackAmerica]

It will now be nearly impossible to take back the Senate.
Here are 3 reasons why.

1. 5 of the 8 closest Senate races are Demcoratic open seats in the deep South.

2. Money that otherwise would have gone to the DSCC and Demcoratic Seante candidates, will be used on ads to beat Bush.

3. The math just dosen't add up.


South Carolina: D open Seat -GOP Lean
North Carolina: D open Seat- GOP lean
Florida: D open Seat- Democratic lean
Georgia: D open Seat- Strong GOP lean
Louisina: D open Seat- Toss Up

54-45-1 R

If Democrats lose 3 of 5 of these races the Senate will remain GOP.

Even if we win in Illinois, Oklahoma, Alaska and Pennslyvania, the Senate would be 50-49 R.

[chimpymustgo]

1. Clark/Edwards. Clark/ Graham. Good as sweet tea.

We have to have a ticket that has coattails.

[TakebackAmerica]

5. Well....

A comparison, Clark/ Edwards vs. Dean/?.

Clark/ Edwards
The South

South Carolina: D open Seat -Toss Up
North Carolina: D open Seat- Toss Up
Florida: D open Seat- Democratic lean
Georgia: D open Seat- Strong GOP lean
Louisina: D open Seat- Toss Up

52-47-1 R

---------------------
Illinois: R open Seat- Strong Democratic lean
Oklahoma: R open Seat- Toss Up
Alaska: Sen. Lisa Murkowski(R)- Toss Up
Pennslyvania: Sen. Arlen Specter or Rep. Pat Toomey- Toss Up

50-50 Senate-




Dean/?

South Carolina: D open Seat -GOP Lean
North Carolina: D open Seat- GOP lean
Florida: D open Seat- GOP lean
Georgia: D open Seat- Strong GOP lean
Louisina: D open Seat- Toss Up

55-44-1 R



Even if we win in Illinois, Oklahoma, Alaska and Pennslyvania, the Senate would be 50-49 R.

Illinois: R open Seat- Democratic lean
Oklahoma: R open Seat- GOP lean
Alaska: Sen. Lisa Murkowski(R)- GOP Lean
Pennslyvania: Sen. Arlen Specter or Rep. Pat Toomey- GOP Lean

54-45-1 R

[FrenchieCat]

2. That's why

the Democratic folks who are figuring a 2004 election without focusing and winning the south are committing Hari-Kari, aka assisted group suicide!

It's all so sad to see some Dems who are willing to throw us down the toilet, when it wasn't neccessary!

It's frustrating as hell, and the results will be felt near and far.

But I guess that changing the Democratic party is more important than electing the most electable candidate......

Sad but true.

Get your Canadian immigration information here: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/skilled/index.html

[GainesT1958]

10. Erskine Bowles has a great shot...

At taking the seat here in North Carolina. Two candidates on our side stand a good chance of winning Fritz Hollings' seat in S.C. Just pursuade Max Cleland to run and Ga. is possible. La. looks like it's winnable. Why the panic? Don't assume that EVERY Southern Dem vacancy will automatically turn to a Repub gain.

And for a LOT of reasons, it's important that anyone seriously counting on winning back the White House next year NOT plan on ignoring everyone south of the Ohio river and east of the Middle Mississippi. Otherwise, we'll be in an even deeper hole, nationally, than anyone here would want to imagine!:scared:

B-)

[sujan]

19. He lost last time

Why do you think he has a chance now?

Even John Edwards would have a hard time getting re-elected if he decides to run.

[HFishbine]

22. Yes

He lost last time for a couple of reasons:

1) N. Carolinians like a dem/rep balance in their senatorial representation. With Edwards already in, NC went for repuke Dole. Now with Dole in, a dem will have the advantage.

2) Bowles garnered 47% of the vote last time. He now has state-wide name recognition -- a distinct advantage over his likely republican challenger, a 12th district congressional rep.

3) Bowles out-polls his likely repuke challenger 46% to 32%.

[NewJerseyDem]

25. Burr isn't as good of a candidate as Dole

Richard Burr is not a very good candidate and isn't nearly as good as Elizabeth Dole. Right there he should pick up a few percentage points because of the worse republican opponent. However, I worry that because it is a presidential year that Bowles will be hurt.

[Dob Bole]

24. lol

Love the Canadian immigration stuff. Hoping it won't be necessary though.

[Jacobin]

3. Don't give up yet

Richard Ieyoub, Dem, former attorney general wants it.

Susie Terrell (RW terror) wants it.

Others may toss hat in the ring.

We just elected a dem senator and a dem governor, so don't give up yet.

[SoCalDem]

4. Breaux will either take a cabinet position with a 2nd Bush admin

or take a mega-bucks job with a coporate "sponsor".. He does not give a damn about the composition of the senate... Anymore, it really does not matter who controls it.. Most of the time there are enough defections to defeat anything good, or to pass something detrimental to the public..

potato-potahto

[Dob Bole]

21. What huge Louisiana corporations?

Tobasco? Dixie Crystals?

I perceive that you do not know what you're talking about. Other than being pro-life, Breaux has a record of progressive voting. He does have the reputation as a moderator, though.

[NewJerseyDem]

26. Not really

I don't know if he is that progressive. He supported the war, the first Bush tax cuts, the current Medicare bill, ANWR drilling and a lot of other conservative positions. While I certainly prefer him to a republican senator he is probably the third most conservative democrat in the senate after Zell Miller and Ben Nelson.

Harry Reid and Mark Pryor are also pro-life but they are much more progressive than John Breaux is.

[ScotTissue]

6. We won LA in 2002 and 2003

We can retain the LA senate seat in 2004. No problem. However, all the other races in the South will be a wash for the GOP. In that regard, we are sunk. I assume Dean will be the nominee and i don't think if he wins he will have enormous coattails. look for a loss of seats in the Senate and the House. Hopefully, we can win some back in 2006, but that goes against historical trend. I think we will be out of power in Congress until at least 2008.

[LouisianaDem34]

7. Louisiana is Dem territory

The Dems won big this past election. We won the Gov., Lt. Gov., att gen office, etc.

[newyawker99]

18. Hi LouisianaDem34!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[TakebackAmerica]

15. Two words.

Wes Clark

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Without Singling Out Any Races

Election 2004 is beginning to look like a Republican tsunami....

The good thing is the election is eleven months away and anything can happen...

That being said this election will turn on four things and I'll list them in order of importance:

-The health of the economy ( what the ordinary American, investor or non investor thinks of it ,not us DUers some of whom think it's 1932...)

-The "war on terror" and the war in Iraq...


-the quality of our presidential candidate.....


And you can take my analysis to the bank...

Happy Holidays,

Brian
with eyes wide open -:)

[TakebackAmerica]

12. I will!

Thanks, Brian, for the analysis.


"The quality of our presidential candidate....."-

That is the most crucial factor.

[pasadenaboy]

9. this is good news

Senators like Breaux only help us when they retire. We need a party that stands for something. He stands for nothing but helping Republicans. Good Riddance to Bad Rubbish.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. It's Awful News

If we're going to banish right leaning Dems from the Senate I can come up with ten more....

Will that make you happy?

[TakebackAmerica]

13. pasadenaboy,

Without the like of Breaux, Ben Nelson and others, their would only be about 35 Demcorats in the Senate.

If the Senate GOP banished their moderates, they would only have about 40 members.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Look At The DOMA Vote And THE IWR

vote to see how many Dems we'd have to banish.....


Also, using a >50% or <50% ADA score as a benchmark I doubt you could find 10 GOP moderates....

My guess is five...

[mndemocrat_29]

16. Clark on the top of the ticket would help tremendously

Especially since the majority of these seats are winnable (Georgia is nearing a lost cause, unless Majette or Marshall jump in). North Carolina has Erskine Bowles, who kept a competitive race against a superstar in 2002. Had he had another month, he probably would've pulled off the biggest upset of the cycle. Going into this race, he'll have high name recognition.

Inez Tenenbaum and Betty Castor could easily ride the trend of females doing well in the South (Majette could also benefit from this if she ran). And Louisiana went very Democratic in 2002 and 2003 (we also have a top notch, Breaux-backed candidate in Chris John). Breaux helped get Landrieu and Blanco elected, he can help John as well.

Add in Alaska, Illinois, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and possibly Missouri, and we've got a real race. Though it won't be easy, but no fight to win back the Senate ever will be. In 2004, we need to win back the White House and the Congress, and this means fighting the good fight in the Senate.

[TakebackAmerica]

17. Agreed.

If Toomey beat Specter, we can pick up Pennslvania.

[Dob Bole]

20. It's not that bad...

You forgot Arkansas, but we can win that one. With Georgia and Louisiana , it will just depend who runs. They are the most Democratic of the Deep South States. As for South Carolina, probably not, and North Carolina will lean GOP.

If the Georgia Lt. Governor runs for the Senate seat, he will definitely win. There's also word on the street that Roy Barnes, the ex-governor may run and he has a chance to win as well. So I disagree with your strong GOP-lean assessment and wonder where it comes from. If Dems do lose in Georgia, it will be for this reason:

Et tu, Zell Miller?

[NewJerseyDem]

27. There is no candidate yet in Georgia

There are a lot of statewide officials like Baker, Thurmond, Cox or Taylor that would make good candidates and Congressman Marshall or Roy Barnes would also be good (Denise Majette might be too liberal). However, THEY AREN'T RUNNING YET!!!!!!!!! The statewide officials would have to resign their seats to run and I don't think they really want to do that. Barnes lost in 2002 and Marshall might not want to risk what could be a fairly long career in the House on a run for senate. We need more than just rumors. There were rumors about Andrew Young and Michelle Nunn and both turned down an oppurtunity to run. We need a candidate soon who can start raising money so we have a chance.
Also, Taylor only won 52% of the vote last year so I don't know why you are so certain he would win next year.

Louisiana seems to be moving a little to the democratic party perhaps because of the rising black population. I think that Chris John can win but David Vitter seems like a strong candidate too. John probably has the advantage but it is too close.

Inez Tenenbaum is a great candidate in South Carolina and the republicans suck. David Beasley would be a bad candiate if he runs and Charlie Condon is also bad. Jim DeMint looked to be the favorite with White House backing but they backed off after he voted no on the medicare bill. Basically, Tenenbabaum is better than Alex Sanders was last year and the republicans are worse than Lindsey Graham so we definitely have a strong chance here.

Erskine Bowles is facing a much worse candidate this time in Richard Burr. It should be close.

Who knows about Florida. It seems like a tossup. Castor is our best candidate and Martinez is the best republican but it is unclear if they will emerge from the primaries. The other candidates are all bad though.

We have strong candidates in these southern races but I do worry about the presidential race. If Dean is nominated, I think he might hurt the candidates in the South. He might not but I think he has a higher likelihood of doing so than someone like Clark or Edwards would.

[knight_of_the_star]

23. But if we win the WH

Then it won't matter if the Senate is 50R 49D 1I because the VP will break the ties in our favor. That and we could probably work with some of the more moderate Republicans like McCain and Snow and some others to beat fillibusters or pass what needs a 2/3rds. That and we could potentially take some more seats in '06 if the GOP does too much obstruction. I KNOW that we have more than a few solid shots at seizing the House.