Is Dean Toast? Not So, says William Saletan

[slinkerwink]

Is Dean Toast?
Saddam's capture doesn't guarantee Bush's re-election.

By William Saletan
Posted Sunday, Dec. 14, 2003, at 2:35 PM PT


Is Howard Dean toast?

That's what pundits are suggesting, Republicans are hoping, and Democrats are fretting in the wake of Saddam Hussein's capture. Dean surged to the front of the Democratic presidential pack by opposing the war in Iraq. As the postwar turned bloody, expensive, and stagnant, it looked like a brilliant bet. But this morning, reporters and analysts seem convinced that the latest card drawn from the deck leaves him with a losing hand.

</snip>

Dean seems to understand. "Our troops are to be congratulated on carrying out this mission with the skill and dedication we have come to know of them," he said this morning. "This development provides an enormous opportunity to set a new course and take the American label off the war. We must do everything possible to bring the U.N., NATO, and other members of the international community back into this effort. Now that the dictator is captured, we must also accelerate the transition from occupation to full Iraqi sovereignty."

Notice how Dean repeats every element of the 2000 Bush approach. Somebody other than the president—in this case, our troops—gets the credit. The mission becomes history. Capturing Saddam becomes a means to a more difficult end: getting the United Nations into Iraq, and getting the United States out.

</snip>

It's clear from interviews Dean gave to reporters Saturday (written up in Sunday's Washington Post and New York Times) that he's repositioning himself as a more hawkish candidate in the general election. He was planning to claim that position tomorrow in a major foreign policy speech. Now he'll have maximum attention as he does so. Bush's aides would be unwise to assume that Dean can't make their latest triumph vanish into history. They should know.

This article is really good---check it out at: http://slate.msn.com/id/2092520/#ContinueArticle

Edit: the Bush 2000 approach basically consisted of reframing the successes of the Clinton/Gore administration as a means to a further, unfulfilled end. The challenger has to dissolve the successes into history and ask what the administration has accomplished with those successes. Dean did an excellent job on this today with his statement on the capture of Saddam Hussein:

""This is a great day for the Iraqi people, the US, and the international community.

"Our troops are to be congratulated on carrying out this mission with the skill and dedication we have come to know of them.

"This development provides an enormous opportunity to set a new course and take the American label off the war. We must do everything possible to bring the UN, NATO, and other members of the international community back into this effort.

"Now that the dictator is captured, we must also accelerate the transition from occupation to full Iraqi sovereignty."

The text underlined shows how Dean is reframing the capture of Saddam Hussein as a major coup on the part of the troops, not on the part of the Bush administration. Notice how he's calling for multilateral cooperation? If Bush fails to do this, he hasn't capitalized on the capture well enough and has let Dean reframe the Iraq situation into a question of needing allies to secure stability for Iraq.

[FrenchieCat]

1. Dean still doesn't

have any Foreign policy credential...and no matter how it is spinned...it makes Dean the weakest of the candidates...

Something not addressed in this article.....

[BlueEyedSon]

2. Foreign policy is irrelevant now that the mission is re-accomplished!

War is over, we won! Terra is defeated!
Now we can move on to the domestic issues.

[SahaleArm]

8. I would say the opposite - But in the end only two things matter.

National Security and the Economy, everything else is just cross-talk. The Republicans will spin Bush as a hero, we better have someone who can combat that perception.

[BlueEyedSon]

18. ONLY 2 THINGS MATTER?

How about:
Govt transparency
Fair taxes
Jobs
Energy policy
Media reform
Sensible environmental protection
and on and on and on

(i.e. all the issues that the Bush administration is on the wrong side of)

in edit:
non-faith-based govt
public education
health care policy/reform

[SahaleArm]

To the politically in-tune? No. In the General election? Yes

Consider that 45% of Democrats can't name a single candidate. Economy (Jobs) and Foreign Policy (Iraq/Terror) are the two issues Democrats have beat Bush on or we lose.

[soothsayer]

3. neither does dumbya

unless you count pissing of the world, and trampling the queen's garden (and the garden of eden, in iraq)

[maddezmom]

7. look where that got us

However,if Dean is nominated and he'll have my vote and do a much better job than the chimp in office.

edit: added the "if" ~ thanks for pointing that out slinkerwink :)

[slinkerwink]

9. you forgot to add an "if"

;-)

[ithacan]

6. neither did Clinton

it's irrelevant.

Cheney's had lots of foreign policy experience. Does that make him qualified? No.

Dean's surge and support is not mainly due to his antiwar stance.

It's because he's the one who is standing up to the GOP bullies and actually saying what needs to be said.

[SahaleArm]

14. It's not 1992, and the faster Democrats understand that the better.

The article discusses Dean taking a more hawkish stance across the board.

[slinkerwink]

26. and that's a wise thing to do on Dean's part

in order to be a really good challenger, you need to be flexible enough to change your position when something unexpected comes up. Dean was never a one-issue candidate----he has other issues to bring to the fore.

[SahaleArm]

30. Dean has already been painted the Anti-Iraq War Candidate.

Regardless of what you and I think every candidate will be pigeon-holed and has to convince the general populace that they are more than that. The primary is made up of a the subset of informed voters, the general election is not.

[slinkerwink]

37. that's why we really need money to combat the Bush ads

[Scott Lee]

58. And long may he be so.

Running from a correct anti-War position would be the mark of a ethically bereft coward. Howard is none of that.

[slinkerwink]

11. oh, frenchie, frenchie, frenchie

I think the brie is melting in your oven, heh.

[FrenchieCat]

31. Oh Slinkerwink, Slinkerwink, Slinkerwink.....

I don't put Brie in the oven. never have, and never will.

I feel that your adamant support of Dean = Brie in the oven..

or a jump off a cliff.

Again, since all depends on "HOW DEAN NOW CHANGES POSITIONS", means that is positions don't count to begin with.

On the one hand some talk about how Convicted Dean is....while on the other hand he keeps needed to "SHIFT" to placate and pander to voting groups.....

which is it? Brie or camember?...whichever, actually both stink.

it's kinda of what like what he said at the debates when asked whether it's ever appropriate to tell a lie to the American people.

Well that answer should have been NO.

But Deanies decided that he was quite right that in matters of national security, it would be alright. Why? Because he really is no different....really not special. Just a politician who will do what it takes to get to where he is going.

MEANS justifying the END is a proposition that I don't believe is correct.

[slinkerwink]

36. you mispelled "camembert"

So much for being a real francophile ;-)

If we insist that our candidate remain inflexible, it leaves him as a sitting target, unable to respond to events like these----that's not smart on your part.

[burning bush]

59. Means Often Justify The Ends, But Not Always

Telling a dying soldier that "it's all over, your dead" is truthfull, but cruel. Tell the soldier that help is coming, hang tough and we'll get you out of here.

The soldier dies with hope, not dispair. Means justify the ends.

But thats not the least of the problems I had with your post.

Again, since all depends on "HOW DEAN NOW CHANGES POSITIONS", means that is positions don't count to begin with.

That's self serving, and just false! Positions are not commandments from a Supreme Controller. Positions are just that-positions. In other words, where you stand on an issue.

Issues change, develop, and mutate into more complex issues. Why should positions remain stagnate?

On the one hand some talk about how Convicted Dean is....while on the other hand he keeps needed to "SHIFT" to placate and pander to voting groups.....

Well, that's your opinion, that Dean shifts in order to pander. Of course, your opinion is free from all bias, and 100% objective - right?

No? Oh that's right - you have a candidate to promote.

Despite your opinion, Dean's need to shift is a strength, not a weakness, and has nothing at all to do with conviction. You use the word conviction as if expressed rigidity, when all it means is the state of being convinced of a truth.

Dean can continue to hold the conviction that Bush has made a mess of foreign and domestic policy, while the individual aspects of those policies may be more or less relevant to the overall success.

Should Dean remain rigidly against a portion of a policy that has proven itself succesfull, just because the overall policy remains a failure?

Of course not.

Herein lies Dean's strength. Too bad you see it as a weakness.

[slinkerwink]

60. now let's see frenchie respond to that post...

[CalebHayes]

50. Why can't we just run Clark?

He will beat Bush. We know he will beat Bush. So, why not him?

[slinkerwink]

53. because of the videos of him praising the bush administration a year ago

that's quite damning.

[JVS]

54. good reason

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

4. Dean can still easily win the primary

Beating Bush got harder, I hope everyone can admit that.

[slinkerwink]

5. I admit that, but I just edited my post for my own take on it

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

17. I'm sorry, really

"Dean is reframing the capture of Saddam Hussein as a major coup on the part of the troops, not on the part of the Bush administration."

If this is Dean's brilliant policial tactics, God help us all.

[slinkerwink]

22. because he's crediting someone else with it instead of Bush

this is what Bush did in 2000, by asking Gore what he did with the successes of his administration, instead of what he did for the administration.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

38. okay, you realize that *everyone* is doing this

You realize that this isn't Dean's master plan or anything? Every campaign of course is doing this. You didn't expect them to praise Bush for what the troops did?

[joefree1]

16. Ahem, unless the Iraq insurgency continues

Afghanistan is starting to get worst. This is not over. Saddam in a hut obviously wasn't running the insurgency.

But give me a couple weeks to see for yourself.


Dean Rocks The House of Blues
7:00 pm ~ 10:00 pm
House of Blues
8430 Sunset Blvd.
West Hollywood, CA 90069
http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/PageServer?pagename=evite_la1215
If you're going check in here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=106&topic_id=4536
(I'll post pics on Tuesday)

[slinkerwink]

27. let me know how the Blues event goes with Dean!

[ant]

34. I can't

In fact, I think beating him just got easier, mostly because I think Saddam's capture is pretty much a symbolic event that will fade with time and have little effect on the situation in Iraq. That'll only leave people feeling even more disappointed. At least before they could think, "wait until we catch Saddam..," but no more. Instead, the question will be, "we captured Saddam and Iraq is STILL a mess - why is that, Mr. President?"

I could be wrong, of course, time will tell, but quite frankly at this point I'm willing to bet money on it. The insurgents weren't being organized by Saddam. If it's true that he was their inspiration, well, we just created a martyr of sorts. And if Saddam isn't their inspiration then the capture doesn't matter at all.

[joefree1]

40. And here it comes ...

At Least 17 Die in Attack on a Police Station Near Baghdad
By EDWARD WONG

Published: December 15, 2003


HALDIYA, Iraq, Dec. 14 — Just 12 hours after Saddam Hussein was captured, a car bomb exploded Sunday outside the police station in this town 60 miles west of Baghdad, and military officials said at least 17 people had been killed and 33 wounded. It was the deadliest attack on American-led forces since two police stations near Baghdad were hit with car bombs three weeks ago.
hat will happen to the guerrilla fighters staging such attacks, and whether the attacks will continue at the current rate and scale, are some of the questions raised by Mr. Hussein's capture.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/15/international/middleeast/15ATTA.html

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

41. sure, if you believe that we just captured Saddam

I think everyone is underestimating their ability to control and time these situations. No, I'm not talking about tinfoil, I'm talking about the propaganda we see on the TV every day. The continuing occupation of Iraq will hurt them - UNLESS they can time events their way. They can obviously do that. That's going to be very difficult to counter.

[gulliver]

10. Thanks

That's a good article.

[slinkerwink]

12. no problem!

anything to procrastinate on my paper!

[Adjoran]

13. It is interesting

that people are focusing so much on next November, when not a single vote has been cast yet in the primaries.

Dean isn't any more "toast" in the general election than he is a certain winner of the nomination. It's a long way to Election Day.

[Julien Sorel]

15. Inevitable. Inevitable. Inevitable. Inevitable. Inevitable. Inevitabl

Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean.

A week ago, Saletan took part in an online forum in which he essentially promised to stop whoring himself for Dean. His promises are as valuable as his analysis, apparently.

[slinkerwink]

19. boy, you sound bitter

[Name removed]

23. Deleted message

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[Name removed]

25. Deleted message

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[Name removed]

28. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[slinkerwink]

29. okay, yo mama's so ugly that mirrors crack on the wall when she

looks at them. ;-)

[joefree1]

33. Thanks for the warm fuzzys

Fortunatley I respect your candidate even if he's a newly minted Democrat. I welcome his participation in the Democratic party in the coming years.


Dean Rocks The House of Blues
7:00 pm ~ 10:00 pm
House of Blues
8430 Sunset Blvd.
West Hollywood, CA 90069
http://www.deanforamerica.com/site/PageServer?pagename=evite_la1215
If you're going check in here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=106&topic_id=4536
(I'll post pics on Tuesday)

[comradebillyboy]

20. there is a long way to go

if the insurgency continues, saddam's fate may not matter. if iraq is quiet and the economy looks ok in sept, bush will get another term. given the current level of mismangement, bureaucratic infighting, gall and incompetence, i dont expect the iraq situation to improve at all. and the economy is pretty questionable. i also think the cia will hold off till next summer to take revenge on cheney and the neocons. and there is plenty more opportunity for bechtel and haliburton to get caught cheating the tax payer.

what a bunch of doom and gloomers.

[janx]

21. Dean's nowhere near toast. Dean hasn't even gotten

started yet!

Another smart move on Dean's part. Americans aren't the only ones reading these kinds of things. Dean lets our allies know that Chimpy's way is not the American way.

He's a regular diplomat.

[slinkerwink]

24. here's a tinfoil hat theory....

:tinfoilhat:

Ok, possibly one of the reasons why the allies don't want to help us is because of BUSH----and they're pulling back on their pledges to help unless we elect somebody else other than Bush.

[FrenchieCat]

32. Theory indeed...

or maybe just a fairy tale...

Just hope we all live happily ever after......

without Bush in the WH past November....

[joefree1]

35. I'll second a future without Bush in the WH

And less scorched earth from my fellow Dems.

[slinkerwink]

39. yep, same here too

[janx]

45. Our allies are watching all of this very carefully.

That's no tinfoil anything.

Just today a DUer posted a Dean article from a French newspaper. The French are by no means the only ones paying close attention.

Just after the selection of 2000, I talked with quite a few people from countries other than the U.S. who were studying here.

They knew what happened better than many Americans. We're spoiled here and think that our country can't get into trouble. But we're a young country, relatively speaking.

Our allies are well aware.

[teryang]

42. I tend to agree with this analysis

Bushco regime has been boosting themselves on the back of the military. Just because the military is competent at some missions doesn't mean that this administration is competent in any mission. Their corruption and machiavellian scheming hasn't changed anything for the better yet. The guerilla war isn't abating in the slightest.

This is just a single event. While it does have PR ramifications outside Iraq and some significance inside Iraq, it doesn't change anything about the fundamental flaws in Bushco foreign or domestic policies as a matter of substance. One has to recognize that the image of Saddam was more significant at this point than any role he was actually playing. It was said some months ago by the administration that Saddam was no longer relevant. This was largely true.

The number of pragmatic Iraqi nationalists who seek credentials by resisting the American occupation will increase, now that the power vacuum at the center is now established as fact. Can any Iraqi leader who aspires to national power not have resistance to the occupation on his resume? The image of the sorcerer's apprentice comes to mind. There are now many aspiring to take his place. I'm sure that many in the CIA have already realized that a brutal strongman is most likely outcome of this futile and fraudulent war.

Any single event or series of events can put the Bushco on its rear quarters running for PR cover in short order. Any confidence they derive from this PR event is largely misplaced. The reaction is so narrowly focused on the present it obscures the fundamental and catastrophic flaws in Bushco "leadership" and policies for the moment. He's going down, it is just a matter of when. The garrison mentality Sharon style right wing government will ultimately be rejected by Americans. Frankly the right wing doesn't know crapola about guerilla warfare. CNN styled this as End of Dark Era. It is just the beginning. Resistance will continue as if Saddam didn't even exist. The ebbs and tides of resistance whatever they may actually be should not be taken for abatement. Abatement would be completely unnatural at this point.

The question still is how high with the bloodshed and other costs detrimental to the nations national security be allowed to go before the social register types agree that bushco, the misguided energy cartel, the corporate greed crowd, and lobbyists running the Pentagon have got to go.

[slinkerwink]

43. another good analysis!

[slinkerwink]

44. vanity kick

[sistersofmercy]

46. Obviously Dean is not toast over this and I can't even understand why

you let others get you upset with negative rhetoric saying otherwise. Peace

[slinkerwink]

47. well, because we still need to get their votes if Dean is the nominee

[sistersofmercy]

56. People will look at the big picture no matter who gets the nod

or so I should hope so. I support Kerry but if Dean gets the nomination, I'll vote and contribute. Don't worry about useless naysaying. If someone isn't talking real issues, don't sweat it.

[littlejoe]

48. This won't hurt Dean, and I don't think any

kneejerk reactions ought to be made, as far as Dean re-positioning himself. It would be a mistake. He has made his position clear. He has given credit to the troops. Let things die down. Bush will get credit, and he will get a slight bump in the polls.

As for re-framing the Iraq situation, it is a good strategy.

[slinkerwink]

49. Dean was right, and repositioning himself would've meant backtracking

on his position today which he didn't----he did not politicize the situation.

[Ellen Forradalom]

51. Saletan wrote an extensive 'Stick a fork in Bush-he's done' essay

a month or so before the 2000 election. Why is he still in the prognostication business?

[slinkerwink]

52. because Bush stole the election.

[slinkerwink]

55. yet another vanity kick

;-)

[slinkerwink]

57. kick

kick

[quaker bill]

61. Exactly

This is what a skilled politician does. Life is contextual, the skilled politician moves within the context and adapts to the political landscape. Each change to the landscape provides new opportunities that the skilled politician can take advantage of. It is the nature of this pursuit.

Dean will probably only fare better through this. He has consistently shown the ability to operate in the current context. It serves well to remember that Dean did not enter the race to run against a war. A war happened to come up along the way.

People attempting to predict the outcome of 2004 at this point are attempting to project the current context well into the future. This never works, because the context changes, the landscape is dynamic.

The actual issues that decide the election of November 2004 may not have even been born yet. Or perhaps we see some of the now, but they will change in character and importance by then. You never know.