Juan Cole's take on the capture of Saddam

[dd123]

http://www.juancole.com/

What is the significance of the capture of Saddam for contemporary Iraqi politics? He was probably already irrelevant.

The Sunni Arab resisters to US occupation in the country's heartland had long since jettisoned Saddam and the Baath as symbols. (See "Sunnis gear up" below.) They are fighting for local reasons. Some are Sunni fundamentalists, who despised the Baath. Others are Arab nationalists who weep at the idea of their country being occupied. Some had relatives killed or humiliated by US troops and are pursuing a clan vendetta. Some fear a Shiite and Kurdish-dominated Iraq will reduce them to second class citizens. They will fight on, as Mr. Bush admitted today.

My wife, Shahin Cole, suggested to me an ironic possibility with regard to the Shiites. She said that many Shiites in East Baghdad, Basra, and elsewhere may have been timid about opposing the US presence, because they feared the return of Saddam. Saddam was in their nightmares, and the reprisals of the Fedayee Saddam are still a factor in Iraqi politics. Now that it is perfectly clear that he is finished, she suggested, the Shiites may be emboldened. Those who dislike US policies or who are opposed to the idea of occupation no longer need be apprehensive that the US will suddenly leave and allow Saddam to come back to power. They may therefore now gradually throw off their political timidity, and come out more forcefully into the streets when they disagree with the US. As with many of her insights, this one seems to me likely correct.

[aquart]

1. Yup.

[Nederland]

2. Huh?

She said that many Shiites in East Baghdad, Basra, and elsewhere may have been timid about opposing the US presence, because they feared the return of Saddam.

So Shiites think that if Saddam returned, he would punish those that opposed the US occupation? Makes perfect sense. Not.

[Gloria]

4. What I heard earlier today on BBC was the thought that there are

Iraqis who were just plain scared, but with Saddam gone, they can now focus on the US occupation. Saddam was described as a "shadow" hanging over them. With the "shadow" gone, the US now becomes their main concern.

[Gloria]

3. He, he, just finished posting this awhile ago in the WMW along with

a piece by Jim Lobe, who quotes Cole extensively!!

His site is fascinating....