Do DUers have a good idea of how the general population will vote?

[jpgray]

[jmaier]

1. I don't think so.

Read the timber of most of the posts here. Liberal activist Democratic anger isn't the same as moderate Democratic anger and it sure isn't how most undecided independents tend to think.

An election isn't only about the ISSUES, it's about the person and all kind of hard to figure warm/fuzzy factors. While * policies are under scrutiny by perhaps a majority of the electorate there isn't a LARGE outburst against him personally. He has a lot of maneuver room between now and the GE and both the bully pulpit and policy pulpit to maneuver with.

BTW, I don't need to see any links to Independents for X or Republicans for Y minor defections always take place and are not indiciative of broad appeal imo.

[boxster]

2. Where's "No f***ing way" as an option?

Just kidding. Maybe.

No, I think too many of us on DU are way too opinionated and way too married to our particular candidates to logically interpret the leanings of the American public.

The reaction to polls is a perfect example. Many, MANY DUers take a slight poll change to indicate a huge swing in the voter mentality. Dean's recent couple-point bump in one SC poll was interpreted by some as meaning the nomination process was over and that everyone else should just pack it in.

Some DUers, however, are career political observers and operatives. Those people could certainly have an idea of how the public will vote and, more importantly, understand what it will REALLY take to get people to vote for the Democratic nominee next fall.