What percentage of Bush voters will not vote for Bush next election?

[kentuck]

In last election, Bush* did receive almost 50 million votes. How many of those 50 million will not vote for Bush next election? My guess would be about 4%..that would equal about 2 million voters. With all the failed policies of this Administration, I cannot imagine him getting more votes than he did last election. This does not discount the possibility of voter fraud.

Another question remains, what percentage of Democrats will vote for Bush* that did not vote for him last time? My guess would be that he might gain some Democratic voters with the war and patriotism issue. However, I cannot see him getting more Democrats than the 4% of Repubs I could envision him losing. What does this mean?

Should our strategy be to try and dissuade more Repubs from voting for Bush* by continuing to tell the truth about the failure in the White House? Or should we try to persuade the leaning Democrats to stay with our Party and try to minimize the number of Dems that are thinking of voting for Bush? Or is there another option?

Considering that Bush* and Gore each received approximately 25% of the eligible voters, there is a 50% pool of possible voters that are not yet committed one way or the other. Would our best bet be to work like hell to get these people registered by next election? If we could get 2 million of those "non-voters" to register and vote as Democrats, I could see us not only winning the White House in a landslide, but I could see us taking back the House and possibly, the Senate.

So, if that were to be the case, what would be the best way to get 2 million new voters registered? We could start early with a calling campaign. It is easy to get the names of the people that voted in the last election. Most County Party organizations have those on file. We could also work thru our university system for volunteers to organize rallies and to set up tables at malls, etc to register non-voters.

This is all just my opinion of what we should do to win the next election. Primarily, I believe we need to go after that 50% that do not vote with an extensive GOTV (get out the vote) campaign. However, we should continue to attack Bush on his weak points of economy, jobs, deficits. (The war is probably a wash or a plus for Bush at this time) We should pound the Repubs relentlessly on these issues, in my opinion.

[FoxNewsIsTheDevil]

1. 100 percent

[preciousdove]

2. oops

:kick:

[whoYaCallinAlib]

3. I think 5-10% won't vote for him again.

He'll pick up a few more democratic rural voters and blue collar workers because of his John Wayne routine but he'll lose way more moderate soccer moms and religious voters.

[trof]

4. Even if 100% stay with him,

we still win.
Just have to get better at the counting part.
;-)

[tpub]

5. don't forget the Nader factor

http://www.repentantnadervoter.com/

[jarab]

6. Dissuasion of their people

probably will not be effective. If they're registered R and are currently voting, that's a tough one to put dependence upon.
We have to work with our own, those not registered and those registered and just not voting. Those last two groups should be emphasized.
I think events will likely have an influence on those last two groups moreso than GOTV activism. But, the activism is necessary to put those same "events" into perspective.
IMO, we need to prod those not registered moreso than those registered and not voting.

To your question: * will likely get the same group of voters from last time. We out-register and outwork them, a win is very viable.
mho
...O...

[blm]

7. I don't think Bush can get over 40% of the vote

unless the machines are rigged even to make it appear better for him. But, I also predicted a Kerry victory with at least 56% of the vote back when Bush was at 90% in the polls.

Now, I think ANY of our Dem candidates can beat him.

[madrchsod]

8. i`d say

about 5% but not more than 10%

[loudsue]

9. It won't matter unless the Black Box Voting problems are fixed

Remember 2002?

Historical FIRSTS all across the country going repug, and close races where there shouldn't have been.

We'll see a repeat until we get the voting machines cleaned up.

If the election was held right now, bush would still win by a big margin....NOT BECAUSE HE GOT THE VOTES, mind you, but because his minions have control of the programming that counts and tallies the votes, and they have people in Sec. of State offices across the country posing as "unbiased" (think Cox in Georgia) who are very likely getting plenty of $$ for their support of the voting machines.

:kick:

[ShaneGR]

10. More Dems will vote, Same amount of Repubs

That's my prediction.

[mjb4]

11. you still believe in fair elections?

enough said....no VNS, black box voting, redistricting. democracy and free elections are WAY OVER!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Studies Of Voters And Non Voters

show they have pretty much the same attitudes and their participation wouldn't change the results of (((((most)))) elections.

That being said turnout could be crucial in a close election.