Rove and Mehlman '04 Strategy: Election "Too Close to Call" '00/'02 Replay

[DUreader]

Both Rove and Ken Mehlman said this yesterday, I believe at separate

events, but may have been the same event.

Some of us here at DU have been predicting this for a while due to

many 2002 races being pronounced 'too close to call' when in fact

a clear leader had emerged in the polls and we of course saw

dramatic swings from the polls to the 'vote count'

with a cancellation of the VNS exit polling Data



Hope this makes sense to someone who can maybe spell it out more clearly than I.

[kentuck]

1. They are playing the old expectations game again..

They know tht if Bush has approval ratings in the 60-70% range, many of their own Party would sit it out. They want to convince their folks that this is going to be a close election and they will have to work really hard to win..or at least get it close enough to steal.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. If Bush Has 60% to 70% Favorability Ratings

in 10/04 I'll be focusing on the NFL season cuz it's going to be a disaster for the Dems.

I shudder for my country.

[diplomats]

5. He's only in the 50s now

eom

[aquart]

11. How would he get those ratings, sweetie?

Really, how?

[goobergunch]

2. GA Governor's race

This race is what led me to believe in BBV.

Republican Democrat Others Pollster Dates MoE 
Governor Perdue 31% Barnes 46% Hayes (L) 5% Tarrance Group (R) 2/26-28 4% 
Garrett (G) 2% 
Perdue 38% Barnes 45% Hayes (L) ?% Insider Advantage ? ?% 
Perdue 42% Barnes 49% Hayes (L) 2% Mitchell Research 9/26-10/1 4% 
Perdue 39% Barnes 48% Hayes (L) 3% Mason Dixon 10/16-17 4% 
Perdue 40% Barnes 51%  Mitchell Research 10/25-29 3% 
Perdue 51% Barnes 46% Hayes (L) 2% Final Results 

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2002/GAPoll.htm#GAGov

D.C.'s Political Report's Rating: 3 stars Democratic, Cook Political Report's overview: Likely Democrat, Campaign & Election's Odds: 4:3 Democrat, Stu Rothenberg: Democratic, Peter Orvetti: Democrat, Congressional Quarterly's Ranking: Democrat Favored, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democrat, Goobergunch Political Report: Leans DEM

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2002/GA02.htm#Gov

I refuse to believe that everybody would be completely wrong about this race.

[Sophree]

7. That is extremely suspicious

And GA has the most Voting machines, right?

:grr:

[Eloriel]

8. You didn't even include the

AJC poll which was even closer to the election. Here's a link called "DIebold Magic?" which shows the poll vs. actual results:
http://www.bartcop.com/111102fraud.htm

Eloriel

[SharonAnn]

13. Actually, Blagojevich was the actual winner: He's a Dem

Actually, Blagojevich was the actual winner:

From the Web page today (7-27-03)
"On July 23, Governor Rod R. Blagojevich completed a three-day, 14-county tour of eastern Illinois, the governor's second county tour of the summer. Several key announcements were made along the way, including the unveiling of Team Illinois, a program designed to provide assistance to and stimulate growth in some of Illinois' most underdeveloped communities."

[revcarol]

3. Kucinich election strategy:

Get SO MANY new people registered and SO MANY going to the polls that the results can't be contested. We can make this a DEMOCRATIC LANDSLIDE BY OUR EFFORTS!!

[Eloriel]

9. That won't work with rigged machines

Sorry, but that's the reality.

Eloriel

[whoYaCallinAlib]

6. It WILL be closely contested.

The country seems split 50-50 when you include all the "leaners".

[MoonGod]

10. I think the point of this post...

... was that even if the polls show Bu$h trailing by 10% going into election day, FoxRoveMSRNC will be saying "it's too close to call" and we could wind up with a result like Georgia 2002.

http://blackboxvoting.com/
http://pollwatch.net/
http://www.votewatch.us/

[DUreader]

12. Definitely part of the point, they did exactly that in 2002!!

[scipan]

14. about exit polls

February 5, 2003, Wednesday

NATIONAL DESK
National Briefing | The News Media: Pact On Polling Voters

The six news organizations that disbanded Voter News Service signed a contract with two polling experts to conduct surveys of voters leaving the polls in the 2004 presidential election. ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel and The Associated Press reached an accord with Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky International and Joseph Lenski of Edison Media Research to form the National Elections Pool.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9504EFD91F38F936A35751C0A9659C8B63