My take on recent poll results

[dobak]

Take a look at these two recent poll results from

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm






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I noticed that when Clark joined the race, he appears to have got most of his votes from former Kerry/Lieberman/Gephardt supporters

What happens when Dean wins Iowa and Gephardt drops out?

What happens when Dean wins NH and Kerry and Lieberman drop out?

Clark starts winning in a landslide? I think so, although I could be proven wrong.

[quinnox]

1. Dean has alienated all the other candidates

So when and if candidates start dropping out, you can expect to see them all rally around someone else, and that could end up being Clark.


Just add those percentages, let's see Dean with 18% and say, Clark with Lieberman (14%), Kerry, (8%) thats Clark - 36% Dean - 18%.

This is just an example of course, I think Gep will win in Iowa and Kerry might still mount a comeback in New Hampshire.

[dobak]

2. my thoughts also

Many Gephardt and Kerry supporters must be very unhappy with Dean

The attacks back and forth have been a bit nasty

[JohnKleeb]

3. My grandfather and grandmother are for Gep and Kerry respectively

They dont have beef with Dean which is fine. Oh you mean here, well theres only a handful of Gephardt supporters here.

[dobak]

4. Kleeb

If Kucinch drops out, who would you choose?

(not saying I want him too, but it is likely since his funds are low and he is still polling around 2%)

[JohnKleeb]

6. Kerry's my second choice

Ive indicated that more than once, despite the disappointment in IWR, I like the guy on the issues, plus how can you not like a guy who got on Nixon's enemy list :evilgrin:

[dobak]

7. ok

What if Kerry finishes 4th in Iowa and 3rd in NH.

I can't see him going on from there.

Then who?

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My point is, I think most Kerry/Gephardt/Lieberman supporters will go to Clark while Dean will have problems picking up the supporters of failed campaigns.

Yes, this is all for nothing if Dean falters aand/or Gephardt and Kerry pull off victories in their respective strong states.

Who knows?

[in_cog_ni_to]

5. I would have to agree.

Not only has Dean alienated the other candidates, his supporters have turned off other candidate's supporters by their rabid support of their guy. I doubt that many of those people will hop on the Dean bandwagon. That's if DU is representative of the rest of the country. :shrug:

[Mattforclark]

8. I think so, but

What if they don't drop out?

Shouldn't some of the candidates have dropped out by now? When do they start dropping out? I don't really remember the 2000 primaries very well and I was definitely too young for everything before that. ?

[SheilaT]

9. Have Dean supporters really alienate

the Kerry/Gephardt/Kucinich people on their own? Or have they simply been defending their guy against some pretty hateful attacks?

Perhaps the real question to ask is, Just how strong is our Anyone But Bush committment? At the end of the primary/caucus season, will Democrats all unite with the nominee and against Bush? This is going to be a long and difficult campaign -- you can be sure that no matter who the nominee the Republicans will find plenty of dirt and will lie with impunity. Will we all hold firm in our support of the nominee, even if he's not our first, second, or even third choice?

Personally, I think the bulk of the animosity directed at Dean is simple resentment that he came from nowhere and is now the front runner. Kerry was supposed to be the new JFK. Kucinich the darling of the progressive left. Edwards a self-made lawyer who stood up for the little people. Gephardt the middle America hero. All of them had already been on the national scene, and each one had a scenario whereby he could pick up the pieces when those ahead of him faltered (except for Kerry who was presumed to the the front-runner). And now someone no one expected has shown up and blown everyone away.

Dean is building exactly the kind of grass-roots organization that could win the general election. And he's being vilified for it. He's raising more money than any other Democrat ever, and is openly asking for enough to match Bush ad for ad, and is being scolded for not being willing to go months without being able to campaign on the airwaves properly, which is what would happen if he limits himself.

Which other candidates are hand writing letters to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire? Which other candidates are gathering the petition signatures to put him on the ballot in Kansas, rather than just paying the thousand dollar filing fee? Which other candidates are actively registering new voters? Who else understands that he must have a Democratic Senate and House, and is helping to raise money for other Democratic candidates?

For all of you who are doing so, I say Great! Fantastic job! And let's never forget that our main goal is to remove Bush and those around him from power.