What are the likely swing states in 2004?

[wuushew]

In 2000 there were 21 swing states were the margin was 5% or less in terms of Bush vs. Gore.

FL,PA,OH,MI,GA,VA,WA,TN,MO,WI,AZ,MN,LA,CO,OR,IA,AR,NV,NV,NM,WV,NH

I am working on a computer program that calculates the possible ways to tie the electoral college. I need to half this number in order to produce anything short enough to analyze in a meaningful way.

I am going to call WA,WI,MN,OR,WV and NM for any of the likely Democratic canidates in 2004. The rest depend on if we use a southern strategy or not.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. That's Less Than 100 Electoral Votes

I'll call the entire northeast for the Dems, plus Oregon, Washington , Minnesota, and Californai.

[NewJerseyDem]

3. Not oregon

That was really close in 2000.

[wuushew]

4. Yes I know its the safe states plus swing states that adds up to 269

[Lefty48197]

2. MO and WV are the most important states in 2004

MI, PA, (although basically leaning Dem), CO, FL, NM are of secondary importance.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Think This Election Will Turn On The Economy

as most elections do.

[CWebster]

5. Judging by the amount of times the jerk comes here-

PA.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. You're Lucky

Chimpy's brother is my governor.

[Touchdown]

8. We need them all!

Getting out the vote, and landsliding the country would send a clear, and unmistakable message to the neo-cons and the Bushites that we the people control this country. Not them.

I know that it's a tall order, and even a but unrelistic, but we have 15 months to give it a damn good try.

That goes for the House and Senate too!

[ShaneGR]

9. If voter turnout is high, Ohio is VERY winnable

Dem candidate would need to focus on Cleveland, Akron, and Columbus. Win Cuyahoga Country big and you carry the state. Clinton did it twice. The Gore Campaign pulled out of Ohio three weeks before the 2000 vote and we still only lost by 3%.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. That Might Have Been A Tactical Mistake

They invested too much of their resources in Florida*

There were alot of close states that we should have contested more strenuously.



*I know we won it.

[otohara]

11. Clinton Won CO in 92

It's possible

[xequals]

12. When you look at the map

it's obvious that we need to secure the West and Southwest -- it's very doable. Those states (AZ,NM,NV,OR) are trending Democratic in the way that CA and WA did. We need to be able to put the Northeast, West, Southwest and Lake/North Central states in our pockets -- then battle for the swing states like FL.

The electoral college system gives the GOP an unfair advantage. Blue states and urban areas are underepresented. Red states and rural areas are overrepresented. A vote in California is worth about 1/3 of a vote in Wyoming, for example.

The problem has only become worse. After the 2000 census, red states gained about 7 electoral votes and blue states lost 1. Bush would have 278 electoral votes (as opposed to 271) if he carried the same exact states in 2004.

ps. We need to establish some presence in the South. I believe that Arkansas and Lousiana are possible.