Baath party why Saddam and sons don't matter

[pbeal]

The following is only my opinion and is derived from several history books, pre and post GW2 documents, personal experience, and current events. I dont expect anyone to take it seriously.

The Baath party is rooted in traditional socialist / communist underground / revolutionary structure.
This structure is rooted on the operational cell concept, and party members are trained and expected to observe operational security.
What this means was while the Baath Party was in power it could operate as an effective police state with party members covertly watching the population and when disposed the party could quickly revert to underground status. It also means the party will Blame its prewar leadership for being forced underground they will also likely use their deaths as rallying cries but are no longer willing or likely to be taking direction from the former high level overt leaders. Also at the base of Baath philosophy is nationalism Sadam may have been the head of Iraq but he was by no means Iraq itself.

It also looks like in the run up to the War the Baath party did indeed prepare the party for reverting into an underground resistance force, by stockpiling large stocks of small arms, explosives and money and training its junior members in underground behavior.

I can only assume by how quickly that the attacks on our occupying forces and the sabotage on infrastructure became more organized and effective(something that should have taken years to do from scratch) that there is a fully functional Baath underground at work. It is also apparent that the cells are being run by several regional or area commanders who are unlikely to be in direct contact with each other. The attacks while organized are not coordinated, and the attacks in different areas are dissimilar enough to point to several planers who are not communicating. When a secure and effective communication net is established the attacks will become even more effective.

Syria a Baathist state is likely providing material support and in the future more than likely to provide sanctuary and training. Baath members are likely to Infiltrate the new Iraqi police force and the new Iraqi military.

It is also likely that a competing Islamic group will start operating in southern Iraq with support and sanctuary from the Saudis and Iran. The Islamic underground is likely in the first stages of underground orgisation and not established enough to begin attacks on western forces.

Another potential problem will be the Kurds in the north providing support and sanctuary to the underground Kurd movement in Turkey. When this happens(and it will happen) The Turks will strike at the Iraqi Kurds with military force as well as start a underground within the Iraqi Turkmen population to strike at the Kurds.

What all this means. Currently the US is treating the ongoing attacks against occupying forces as a small group of diehard dead-enders, any one with a competent grasp of Arab and world history can see that this is just not the case If it continues to operate like it is we will be quagmired until either all the Iraqi oil is pumped out of the ground or The US reduces its dependence on petroleum products. Iraquization of the conflict will not work because of the basic structure of the Baath party and will result in the same effect that Vietimnzation(sp) worked in Viet Nam.

A solution that could possibly work but one that the current US administration will find unthinkable is to get the UN involved and remove all US and "Collation of the willing" military and commercial involvement out within 3 months. As long as the US is seen as a Player in Iraqi internal affairs peace will be unattainable.

[Warren Stuart]

1. Wow! This is scary because it makes sense.

The idiot in chief really didn't think this one through.

Not one of their predictions have come true, the worst thing that can happen is that Saddam is killed or captured, and nothing changes.