Bush having BIG problems with moderates

[lancdem]

Check out this post on Ruy Texeira's site:

Moderates Not Moderate on Bush

Public Opinion Watch has commented a number of times recently on how disaffected independent voters seem to be with Bush and his policies. The breakouts provided by the Los Angeles Times from their most recent poll provide a window on another electoral group that's disaffected-really disaffected-with Bush and his policies. This one's a moose of a group: moderate voters, who constituted 50 percent of the voters in the 2000 election.
Start with the classic right direction/wrong track question: the public as a whole thinks, by 50 percent to 40 percent, that we're on the wrong track. Pretty negative in and of itself, but moderates think that we're on the wrong track by almost double that margin: 55 percent to 36 percent.
Move on to the question of whether Bush "understands the problems of people like you." The public thinks that he doesn't, by 51 percent to 42 percent-bad enough, but moderates are a stinging 58 percent to 34 percent against Bush on the question. Ouch.
Then check out the data on Iraq. The public disapproves of Bush's handling of Iraq, by 51 percent to 45 percent, while moderates disapprove, by 56 percent to 38 percent, three times the margin. The public-just barely-says that "the situation in Iraq was worth going to war about," by 48 percent to 43 percent (by comparison, 77 percent in April said they supported the decision to go to war). Moderates, however, are just the reverse, saying Iraq wasn't worth going to war over, by 50 percent to 45 percent.
...
Turning to the economy, these data show that Bush has a long way to go before his performance is going to win the endorsement of moderate voters. By twenty points (56 percent to 36 percent), these voters still disapprove of his handling of the economy. By nineteen points (59 percent to 40 percent), they still think that the economy is doing badly.
And when it comes to whether they voters think the country or they themselves are better off than when Bush came into office, these voters are really negative. By a stunning 64 percent to 10 percent, they say that the country is financially worse off, not better off, than when Bush took office. And by 32 percent to 12 percent, they say they themselves are financially worse off, not better off, than they were three years ago (the rest say their situation hasn't changed much).
...
Perhaps it should come as no surprise then that moderate voters appear quite willing to toss Bush out of office in 2004. By a whopping 25 point margin-55 percent to 30 percent-they don't think Bush deserves to be re-elected.
Results were similar when voters were asked specifically whether they would vote for Bush in 2004 or the Democrat running against him. Registered voters favored the Democrat by a modest four-point margin, but moderates favored the Democrat by a healthy seventeen points.
Let's put these results in context. In 2000, Gore carried moderate voters by eight points and just barely won the popular vote. This means that, if the Democrats carry moderate voters by a wider margin in 2004, as is the case right now, then they quite likely will win the popular vote by a solid margin.
http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com/pow/pownovember_26_2003_.cfm

[leftofthedial]

1. weird

I would assume he gets zero approval from liberals.

He is getting about 30 - 40% of the moderates.

I would guess he is getting about 80% of the conservatives (some of whom are disaffected civil libertarians or true fiscal conservatives).

so:

0 times 20% of the populace

plus

40% of 40% of the populace


plus 80% of 20% of the populace

should equal

32% support, yet he consistently gets around 50% support in the polls.

Something doesn't add up.

[lancdem]

2. There are considerably more self-described conservatives

than self-described liberals among likely voters. That skews the numbers.

[Oilwellian]

7. Not if you look at his re-election numbers

For the past several months, they have stayed between 39-42%.

[wryter2000]

3. Wow

These are the numbers that reflect what I've been hearing people saying. Just about everyone I know who voted for * last time won't do it again.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. but when the other choice is Dean

they will run right back to Bush.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[monkeyboy]

4. As though any of this matters

They're going to steal the next election. THEN what are you going to do?

[NewJeffCT]

8. Problem is...

That every time we get some good news on the economy, it will be trumpeted on Faux, CNN, MSNBC, etc as the greatest thing since the invention of the wheel and it will start to seep into the collective consciousness.

[Spazito]

9. Moderates are the key, they always are....

both parties will always carry their base, no matter what. The moderates lean right or left but don't sign on to one or the other. It is very encouraging news that moderates are leaning away from Bush, imo.

[Hamlette]

10. the GOP will lose if they pander to the extremists

I've always thought Bush the elder lost because of the 1992 GOP convention. It scared the crap out of moderates. I keep hearing that Rove wants to court the 4 million fundies who did not get out and vote in 2000. He wants 'em back. If Bush II turns his convention over to the neo cons on war and the fundies on social issues his goose is cooked.


If you haven't read the Plaid Adder today, do it. We can turn gay mariage into our issue. I've already heard Brooks and Matlin say the GOP should be in favor of gay marriage. There could be some cracks in his base over that too.