How do we ensure exit polling in '04?

[elperromagico]

In '02, the exit polls were abruptly halted. Suddenly, races which appeared to be squeakers (the Florida gubernatorial race, the Minnesota Senate race) turned into blowouts.

The question is, how do we ensure that exit polling occurs in '04 and is carried out by an independent group? I ask because, although not impossible, it would be much harder for Bush and Co. to pull off a massive fraud if the exit polls show our man ahead.

[bobbieinok]

1. Years ago each network did their own exit polling

My mother was in the League of Women Voters here in OK. One of the networks (ABC?) used League members in OK and I think in other states to do exit polling.

The idea I think was that the League was national and non-partisan.

Is there some national organization that exists or could maybe be formed?

In IA, every precinct had both a democratic and a republican poll watcher each hour the polls were open. We sat at the table with the precinct workers and marked off the people on our lists as they voted.


Apply something like this to exit polling ... representative from each side?

[TXvote]

2. YES YES YES

I believe this is one of the most important "machine" issues we face.

There are a few groups working to develop exit polls, but I am convinced we need a business model like it used to be. Here's why. Please feel free to point out why I might be wrong.

1. Any non-profit will be delegitimized ASAP by finger pointing.
2. Exit polling, REAL EPing, is done on an enormous scale and I do not yet see anyone prepared to do work of that scope.
3. America could use the jobs. I mean, the experts that ran the EPs must still be out there somewhere. Chances are they need a job. Given the short period of time there is left to organize comprehensive polling, a business is more likely to get the job done.

I would like to see a twist on the polling though. I would like to see it evolved into something "certifiable". Especially since it needs to be able to face the accusation that the EPs are wrong.

Thanks for bringing this up. I know media people are really really wanting EP info and sad that it does not seem to be happening.

Also, anyone know who the a-holes were that polled 2000 Cali voters at 9AM and pounded the wires with news the Gropenator was winning by a landslide?

Peace,
Teresa
www.votervirgin.com

[elperromagico]

5. Several independent exit polls would be ideal.

If you have ten polls saying that Candidate A has beaten Candidate B decisively, then if Candidate B beats Candidate A in the general election, there will certainly be suspicion.

The only problem is, the exit polls won't mean jack-shit if the official results have no paper trail!

[Bozola]

3. Perhaps we should start an OpenSource VNS-type system

Battelle's incompetence (I'm being extremely kind, that level of incompetence is hard to come by) torpedoed the '02 VNS results.

[LibertyorDeath]

4. Contact the Carter center as in former president Carter no joke

As far as I know they specialize in election monitoring.

I'm serious imagine how this will look if some heavy wait groups contact the Carter center to monitor the 2004 American election.

[elperromagico]

6. The US is in serious need of United Nations election monitors.

n/t

[creativelcro]

9. that would be a great idea

Media should be out of this... it should be some non-profit organization... Wondering if it would be conceivable to have a grassroots org in place... Mostly volunteer based, with some paid personnel for organization and equipment...

>>
I'm serious imagine how this will look if some heavy wait groups contact the Carter center to monitor the 2004 American election.
>>

[Lisa0825]

10. I heard a while back that Carter was asked about monitoring our elections,

since his center does that in other countries. He responded that the United States doe NOT MEET THE CTRITERIA they require in order to monitor an election. I believe one of the major problems was that we do not have uniform voting procedures across the nation. Different states use different machines, etc.

I could be wrong about this, bc it was third hand info, but that is what I remember someone telling me.

[elperromagico]

13. That's almost embarrassing

The voting procedures in third world countries are uniform, but ours aren't?

No, wait... that is embarrassing.

[pearl]

11. The Carter center

Yes, I was talking to my congresswoman, Schakowsky. she suggested
the Carter center for a resource. This has really got to be organized.

[TXvote]

14. My Family In Chile has offered

to come observe our 2004 elections. They get a real kick out of the idea. maybe the UN would intervene???

[elperromagico]

7. Bartcop suggested that all Democrats vote absentee.

Is that even practical?

[NewGuy]

8. I believe this stopped because...

the networks were asked not to project winners before the polls closed throughout the state because of the potential to change the outcome. Since they could not report the numbers the polling no longer mattered to them so they stopped doing it.

Of course in a few cases they still projected winners in states before all of the polls had closed.

[elperromagico]

12. The networks can't be relied on anyway

2000 proved that. We need an independent exit poll.

[RC]

15. Nope!

That was just the excuse they used. As soon as the polls closed they would be free to use the exit poll datum. As the exit polling was reasonably accurate, it had to be stopped when the criminal right started rigging the elections big time.

[creativelcro]

16. I agree with that assessment

"That was just the excuse they used. As soon as the polls closed they would be free to use the exit poll datum. As the exit polling was reasonably accurate, it had to be stopped when the criminal right started rigging the elections big time."

[SheilaT]

17. Exit polling is the most reliable

source for accurately predicting the final results, when done right. Over the years the groups doing the exit polling (and yes, networks used to do their own) typically used specific "representative" precincts.

What happened in 2000 was that the exit polling clearly showed that Gore won -- that voters in Miami-Dade County intended to vote for him. And they were excoriated for getting it "wrong". Even today you'll often hear incorrectly that Bush won the election. He didn't, and we must never forget that.

But that's why there was no exit polling in 2002, and so certain anomolous results kind of slipped by. I still cannot believe that Max Cleland truly lost.